Wednesday, September 12, 2018

India and China Drive Mobile Account Growth to 2025

As always, global trends can obscure what is happening in discrete communications markets.
That seems to be the case for mobile communications as well. Of the 1.6 billion new mobile internet users between now and 2025, the overwhelming numbers will come from China and India.

Just five countries account for half of global  growth to 2025:
  • China
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Nigeria
  • Pakistan

What that means is that subscriber additions cannot drive revenue growth in most markets globally. In many countries, additional mobile data revenue will be key. In developed markets, growth will have to shift beyond mobile data, one might argue.

Also, because fixed broadband is negligible in some of those markets, the “next internet generation will not just be mobile first, but mobile only,” says GSMA.

U.S. Regulatory Threat to Internet App Giants Grows

For better or worse, the U.S. Federal Trade Commission is kicking off  a series of public hearings during the fall and winter 2018 examining whether broad-based changes in the economy, evolving business practices, new technologies, or international developments might require adjustments to competition and consumer protection law, enforcement priorities, and policy.


In other words, this might be the precursor to regulation of internet app firms in new ways, possibly including measures of an antitrust nature (breaking up firms or restraining them). The FTC has broad authority to promote competition in U.S. consumer markets.


Hearing
Date
Topics
Location
#1
Review of Competition and Consumer Protection Landscape; Concentration and Competitiveness in U.S. Economy; Privacy Regulation; Consumer Welfare Standard in Antitrust; Vertical Mergers
Georgetown University Law Center, Washington, DC
#2
State of U.S. Antitrust Law; Mergers and Monopsony or Buyer Power
FTC Constitution Center, Washington, DC
#3
Oct. 15-17, 2018
The Identification and Analysis of Collusive, Exclusionary, and Predatory Conduct by Digital and Technology-Based Platform Businesses; Antitrust Framework for Evaluating Acquisitions of Potential or Nascent Competitors in Digital Marketplaces; Antitrust Evaluation of Labor Markets
George Mason University Antonin Scalia Law School, Arlington, VA
#4
Oct. 23-24, 2018
Innovation and Intellectual Property Policy
FTC Constitution Center, Washington, DC
#5
Nov. 6-7, 2018
Privacy, Big Data, and Competition
American University Washington College of Law, Washington, DC
#6
Nov. 13-14, 2018
Algorithms, Artificial Intelligence, and Predictive Analytics
Howard University School of Law, Washington, DC

Verizon Launching its 5G Fixed Wireless Service

Verizon is launching Verizon 5G Home on October 1 in parts of Verizon 5G Home (a fixed wireless service) will initially be available in parts of Houston, Indianapolis, Los Angeles and Sacramento, providing the first U.S. real-world test of customer demand for 5G fixed wireless, and a test of how much fixed network internet access market share might be disrupted.

Verizon 5G Home customers should “expect typical network speeds around 300 Mbps and, depending on location, peak speeds of nearly 1 Gig, with no data caps,” Verizon says. The obvious importance is that the fixed wireless service now offers speeds quite comparable, if not better, than service provided by cabled network providers in the markets Verizon is targeting, and matches--if not exceeds--the usage allowances incumbent suppliers provide.

Perhaps significantly Verizon says “Verizon 5G Home is ideal for consumers looking to ‘cut the cord’ or upgrade from their current cable service.” That suggests Verizon believes it will win most of its customers from other cable providers. Given that cable speeds arguably are faster than the competing telco’s offers in most of those initial markets, one might suspect that many of the switchers would come from those customers buying the slower speeds.

Verizon likely believes that if those customers wanted to upgrade, they already would have. And that makes the key competitor the cable operator, which serves customers with an arguable demand for faster internet access service.

After that introductory period, current Verizon Wireless customers with a qualifying smartphone plan will pay $50 per month for the service, while non-Verizon Wireless customers will pay $70 per month. This monthly charge includes all taxes and fees, and does not require an annual contract. There are no additional hardware costs, Verizon says.

There are a couple of noteworthy points here. Verizon seems to have concluded that consumers like the “no hidden charges” approach, as most other ISPs likely charge taxes and fees on top of the recurring service payments.

Verizon is not requiring a contract, which most cable operators do, when offering their best pricing. Also, Verizon is not charging for customer premises equipment, which is a typical cable requirement.


5G Home customers will also get YouTube TV free the first three months ($40/month thereafter) and a free Apple TV 4K or Google Chromecast Ultra device at installation. U.S. consumers can visit FirstOn5G.com to learn more.

Tuesday, September 11, 2018

Is 5G an Existential Threat to Fixed Network ISPs?

Even if you do not completely agree with the claim that “5G technologies are expected to put mobile broadband on par with fiber networks,” most might agree that the gap between mobile and cabled access networks is about to close dramatically. Nobody yet knows how much share shift (mobile substitution) could happen. But the threat is substantial, at a local level.


“We see 5G fixed wireless broadband as the biggest existential threat to broadband providers (by far),” say equity analysts at Cowen. Mobile 5G might be a bigger threat, but consider only fixed wireless.


Consider what Verizon might achieve, as it is the U.S. tier-one service provider most committed to 5G fixed wireless. Verizon assumes it might eventually reach 30 million to 35 million homes (homes passed) in 17 or so potential markets.


Assume that total fixed network internet access take rate in those markets is 85 percent. That implies perhaps 25.5 million to 29.8 million customer accounts in the total market.


Assume the cable competitor in those markets has 55 percent share, while the telco has 44 percent share. That implies cable operators have perhaps 14 million to 16.4 million accounts.


Other telcos (mostly AT&T and CenturyLink) might then have 11.2 million to 13.1 million accounts.


Assuming a 25 percent Verizon take rate when it enters those new markets, Verizon could eventually expect to gain 6.4  million to 7.5 million accounts.


To be sure, on a national level, those losses, while unwelcome, represent a share shift in low single digits for any affected incumbent supplier. On a national base of at least 97 million accounts, that amount of share shift represents about seven percent to nine percent of the base.


The impact really is on local market business cases. If the incumbent losses come in proportion to existing share, then the local cable company could lose 14 percent share, while the telco loses 11 percent share.


In other words, cable might lose two million to 2.3 million accounts in those markets, while telcos lose 1.2 million to 1.4 million accounts. That drops cable share to perhaps 41 percent, and telco share to perhaps 33 percent share.


At a high level, neither of those new share levels is unsustainable, the general logic being that a minimum of 20 percent ISP share is sustainable. But the lower share makes the overall business case for cable and telco suppliers that much tougher, reducing gross revenue, profit margins and possibly average revenue per account.


That is hugely important, as it could dramatically alter the business case for fiber-to-home or other access networks, reducing the number of instances where such a network is sustainable.

50 Million Fixed Wireless Accounts Added Over the Last 5 Years

“As wireless broadband technology develops in leaps and bounds, the connection cost per megabit for 4G has been reduced to about four percent of that for 3G,” Houlin Zhao, International Telecommunication Union Secretary-General at the The Telecom World 2018 conference in Durban, South Africa.

“Over the past five years 50 million households and many small- to medium-sized enterprises, schools, and hospitals have accessed the Internet through fixed wireless broadband,” he said. “In the next three to five years, wireless technology is expected to become an important means of raising the broadband penetration rate from 17 percent to 50 percent in developing countries.”

Saturday, September 8, 2018

Is Mobile Service Not "Telecommunications?"

Using the same logic as apparently used by a U.S. district court, and upheld by a court of appeals, mobile phone service might not be "telecommunications," and therefore might not be governed by common carrier regulation.

It is not clear whether that applies only to a "legacy free" mobile service or especially applies to any mobile service using IP in the core of the network and then converts to other protocols at the edge, with the processing at the edge.

You might think the United States resolved--decades ago--the question of whether VoIP is an information service--and therefore unregulated--or a telecommunications service, and therefore regulated. Maybe not.

The argument is “in the weeds” of policy, and is not as straightforward as you might think. At issue are fundamental views about whether “what” gets done is controlling, possibly “where” or “by whom” or “how” something gets done is paramount.

Under the Telecommunications Act of 1996, a “telecommunications service” is “the offering of telecommunications for a fee directly to the public, or to such classes of users as to be effectively available directly to the public, regardless of the facilities used,” as noted in 47 U.S.C. § 153(53).

That is the “what gets done” being paramount.

An “information service,” on the other hand, is  “the offering of a capability for generating, acquiring, storing, transforming, processing, retrieving, utilizing, or making available information via telecommunications, . . . but does not include any use of any such capability for the management, control, or operation of a telecommunications system or the management of a telecommunications service.

That is a version of the “what gets done” view. New court decisions by a district court and appeals court suggest that “where” something gets done, or by whom,  also matters.

Clear as mud, you might agree. But all that matters because “telecom” services are regulated differently than information services. In U.S. law, information services are covered by Title I, while telecom is a utility regulated under Title II of the Communications Act of 1934, which was amended by the Telecom Act of 1996. More weeds.

U.S. telecom law has tended to be viewed through the “what gets done” lens.

“If it walks like a duck, it’s a duck.” That adage actually describes the general line of thinking that federal level regulators have followed whenever technology transitions happen in the “telecommunications” (common carrier) industry.

But a new issue is raised by a Minnesota district court, and affirmed by an appeals court: if protocol conversion is an attribute of a “data service,” and if such protocol conversion happens in customer premises equipment, then a regulated telecom service is a non-regulated data service.

That arguably is a new line of reasoning, compared to the “what is being done?” view. What some might see as the key import of the case--federal preemption--might arguably not be the long term importance of the case. The district court and appeals court have ruled that Charter’s VoIP service is an instance of “information services,” not “telecommunications.”

“The touchstone of the information services inquiry is whether Spectrum Voice acts on the consumer’s information—here a phone call—in such a way as to ‘transform’ that information,” the appeals court says. That is significant.

The court essentially argues that “what is done” (data processing) controls, not the “intent” of the actions (voice communications). Perhaps significantly, the district court relies on an understanding of the difference between “network” and “customer premises equipment” in its logic.

Essentially, since the CPE voice gateway is doing protocol conversion at the edge, the bits transformed are not acted upon “in the network.” The court reasons that this makes a voice session analogous to any other internet operation where edge to edge communications, but not network control, are involved. Weeds, weeds, weeds.

But there are big implications.

If performing the conversion from TDM to IP inside a customer’s home is sufficient to convert a telecommunications service into an information service, as the district court has reasoned, then any other service provider could, in principle, greatly reduce its regulatory burden simply by moving converter boxes (where protocol conversions happen) inside customers’ homes.

And if legacy-free communications to mobile phones, for example, were to use the same logic, then mobile voice is not communications either, and for the same reasons. Protocol conversion happens at the edge device, not in the network.

At least conceptually, the courts’ logic suggests that mobile phones might also be akin to cable telephony CPE. And therefore likewise not “telecommunications” services.

A simple change of physical location would transform what used to be telecommunications services to information services. Experts say the FCC never has specifically ruled on protocol conversions, or where those protocol conversions occur.

In general, federal regulators looking at new technology in the telecom industry have followed a rule that essentially assumes that the purpose of a platform and its use by customers dictates its nature. In other words, if phone calls start and terminate on edge devices “as calls,” then no matter what happens in the network, those operations are “phone calls” for purposes of regulation.

Were that not the case, every major introduction of new technology (digital central office switches, packet switches, each new generation of mobile networks) would be cause to reexamine regulatory formats.

Three decades ago, for example, big questions were raised about whether voice over Internet Protocol should be regulated the same way as time division multiplex telecom services, or whether VoIP was a data service that should be unregulated. By the mid-2000s, the rule became settled: interconnected VoIP services (phone calls to phone devices) are “telecommunications,” not information services.

To make a long story short, regulators have settled on the notion that when VoIP is used and sold as a telecommunications service (interconnected voice service), that is how it will be treated. When messaging or other forms of IP voice are used as a peer-to-peer app, such uses have continued to be seen as unregulated information services.

But another period of potential rulemaking seems to be arising again. A district court and appeals court has ruled that VoIP is an information service essentially challenging the prior notion that VoIP is a telecommunications service.

“The district court ruled that Charter’s VoIP service is an ‘information service’ under the Telecommunications Act and that state regulation of Charter’s VoIP services was therefore preempted. Because we agree with the district court, we affirm,” the appeals court has ruled.

One might think we have settled the issue of how to regulate VoIP, but the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission and Charter Communications disagree. The MPUC wanted to regulate “Charter Advanced,” the business unit that offers the VoIP service, as a “telecommunications service.” That is rather something many had assumed was settled decades ago.

Charter argues that its service “Spectrum Voice” is an “information service” under the Telecommunications Act of 1996. That then leads to the notion that Spectrum Voice cannot be regulated by the PUC.

The court actions are a shock. They conflict with federal policy and therefore will have to be resolved, again, by a higher court. One has to assume that the principle of federal preemption will be invoked again.

In the past, new technology has raised issues about state level versus federal level regulations, among them the argument that “50 different sets of laws” will inhibit the supply of advanced new technology. The result, in such cases, has tended to be federal preemption of state-level rules.

The appeals court decision almost has to be appealed to the Supreme Court, as the recent decisions once again raise issues, not only about jurisdiction (who gets to decide?) but on the fundamental issue of whether voice is an information service, for purposes of regulation, or a telecommunications service.

I thought that issue--whether VoIP is an information service or telecom service--was settled some decades ago. Perhaps the Supreme Court will agree that, indeed, the issue has been settled. It might also happen that the U.S. Congress steps in, as is its right, to settle the issue legislatively.

There are several sets of issues: who has jurisdiction over VoIP and telecom services, and in what areas? Also, there is the fundamental issue of whether interconnected voice is a “telecom” service, with telecom regulatory rules, or an information service, with data services rules.

One attribute of information services are that protocol conversions happen. Cable companies argue they do this inside customer homes. Telcos tend to do so at central offices and other locations outside the home (IP in the middle, or network, but TDM to the home).

Many believe the current and possible ultimate decisions will have implications for network neutrality rules, as the Federal Communications Commission rules specifically state that the FCC’s rules preempt state rules on net neutrality. That is the jurisdiction issue.

What seems even more fundamental, though, is the issue of whether interconnected voice actually is an information service. That is a decision with profound implications. Since all voice services--interconnected or peer-to-peer--now use IP platforms, there now is at least an opening for a major reexamination of utility regulation for voice services generally.

There are huge institutional barriers to reconceiving voice services as “data services,” for purposes of regulation. For that reason alone, it seems unlikely we will see another major reexamination of how VoIP should be regulated (aside from jurisdictional issues).

But it is stunning to see such court decisions three decades after courts and regulators essentially settled the issue.

If It Walks and Quacks Like a Duck, is It a Duck?

“If it walks like a duck, it’s a duck.” That adage actually describes the general line of thinking that federal level regulators have followed whenever technology transitions happen in the “telecommunications” (common carrier) industry.

Were that not the case, every major introduction of new technology (digital central office switches, packet switches, each new generation of mobile networks) would be cause to reexamine regulatory formats.

Three decades ago, for example, big questions were raised about whether voice over Internet Protocol should be regulated the same way as time division multiplex telecom services, or whether VoIP was a data service that should be unregulated.

To make a long story short, regulators have settled on the notion that when VoIP is used and sold as a telecommunications service (interconnected voice service), that is how it will be treated. When messaging or other forms of IP voice are used as a peer-to-peer app, such uses have continued to be seen as unregulated information services.

But another period of potential rulemaking seems to be arising again. A district court and appeals court has ruled that VoIP is an information service, essentially challenging the prior notion that VoIP is a telecommunications service.

“The district court ruled that Charter’s VoIP service is an ‘information service’ under the Telecommunications Act and that state regulation of Charter’s VoIP services was therefore preempted. Because we agree with the district court, we affirm,” the appeals court has ruled.

One might think we have settled the issue of how to regulate VoIP, but the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission and Charter Communications disagree. The MPUC wanted to regulate “Charter Advanced,” the business unit that offers the VoIP service, as a “telecommunications service.” That is rather something many had assumed was settled decades ago.

Charter argues that its service “Spectrum Voice” is an “information service” under the Telecommunications Act of 1996. That then leads to the notion that Spectrum Voice cannot be regulated by the PUC.

The court actions are a shock. They conflict with federal policy and therefore will have to be resolved, again, by a higher court. One has to assume that the principle of federal preemption will be invoked again.

In the past, new technology has raised issues about state level versus federal level regulations, among them the argument that “50 different sets of laws” will inhibit the supply of advanced new technology. The result, in such cases, has tended to be federal preemption of state-level rules.

The appeals court decision almost has to be appealed to the Supreme Court, as the recent decisions once again raise issues, not only about jurisdiction (who gets to decide?) but on the fundamental issue of whether voice is an information service, for purposes of regulation, or a telecommunications service.

I thought that issue--whether VoIP is an information service or telecom service--was settled some decades ago. Perhaps the Supreme Court will agree that, indeed, the issue has been settled. It might also happen that the U.S. Congress steps in, as is its right, to settle the issue legislatively.

There are several sets of issues: who has jurisdiction over VoIP and telecom services, and in what areas? Also, there is the fundamental issue of whether interconnected voice is a “telecom” service, with telecom regulatory rules, or an information service, with data services rules.

Many believe the current and possible ultimate decisions will have implications for network neutrality rules, as the Federal Communications Commission rules specifically state that the FCC’s rules preempt state rules on net neutrality. That is the jurisdiction issue.

What seems even more fundamental, though, is the issue of whether interconnected voice actually is an information service. That is a decision with profound implications. Since all voice services--interconnected or peer-to-peer--now use IP platforms, there now is at least an opening for a major reexamination of utility regulation for voice services generally.

There are huge institutional barriers to reconceiving voice services as “data services,” for purposes of regulation. For that reason alone, it seems unlikely we will see another major reexamination of how VoIP should be regulated (aside from jurisdictional issues).

But it is stunning to see such court decisions three decades after courts and regulators essentially settled the issue.

Perhaps it is misplaced, but I am reminded of an adage coined by economist Hyman Minsky.


In other words, stability is destabilizing. Long periods of calm cause risk taking behavior that make the next downturn more violent. Paradoxically, instability is stabilizing, since it reduces the amount of risky behavior people and companies are willing to take.
Maybe our long period of stability in telecom regulation has created more pent-up instability. Certainly some of us might find the recent court decisions shocking.

Telecom regulation of VoIP has been that “If it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it is a duck.” The Minnesota district court and appeals court rulings suggest the opposite.  

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