Saturday, February 23, 2019

How Much Connectivity Revenue from IoT?

Forecasts of internet of things spending have been all over the place, but most suggest incremental connectivity revenue directly attributable to IoT will be fairly slight. At present, IoT likely represents one percent to two percent of service provider revenues, best case.  

Some forecasts suggest global IoT spending, across the whole ecosystem, will only reach $745 billion in 2019, up from the $646 billion spent in 2018, according to a new update from IDC. The research agency expects global IoT spend to gallop at double-digit annual growth until 2022, when it crosses the US$1 trillion mark.


Other forecasts are about in that range as well.Bain & Co predicts that by 2020, the global market for IoT (including devices, software, hardware and services) will exceed US$470 billion. Industrial giant General Electric Corp has the biggest number so far. It says investments in the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) will reach US$60 trillion in the next 15 years.

And connectivity revenues are a fraction of total ecosystem revenue.  

The New Brandeis Approach to Antitrust Won't Work, Long Term

Traditional antitrust violations that cause identifiable or potential “consumer harm.” The key concept here is “consumer harm,” not “producer harm.” That notion underlies consumer protection policies of all sorts, including actions to break up companies to promote more competition.

And that is where the emergence of “free to use” services and applications raises new questions for some, especially a shift of focus from protecting consumers to protecting producers. In other words, regulatory intervention is justified not because consumers are harmed in the old sense of high prices possible because of monopoly power, but despite the ability to quantify such harm.  

The idea that policy is organized around protecting producers, rather than consumers, is not new. But it is a shift back to acting even when consumer harm, in the form of higher prices, cannot be alleged.

Consider the classic case of antitrust action against Standard Oil, which at one point might have had 90 percent market share.

“Between 1870 and 1885 the  price of refined kerosene dropped from 26 cents to 8 cents per gallon. In the same period, the Standard Oil Company reduced the [refining] costs per gallon from almost 3 cents in 1870 to 0.452 cents in 1885,” observers have noted.

In other words, consumers clearly benefited. But antitrust action was taken despite evidence of consumer harm, to help other competitors, not to protect consumers from high prices.

In essence, many argue for a return to such policies of helping suppliers, not consumers, since consumer harm cannot be clearly demonstrated.

It is debatable whether policies aimed at protecting suppliers work long term. Still, to the extent new antitrust action might be taken, it will be using non-direct and non-quantifiable measures of harm. Privacy protection seems the most-obvious new culprit.

The Antitrust Case Against Facebook by Dina Srinivasan links Facebook’s privacy policies with monopoly abuses, in keeping with a trend by some to revise traditional tests of market power, as it is difficult, under the existing framework, to find consumer harm when no actual price is charged for use of a product.

So the new tack is to enshrine new tests--privacy protection, mostly--of monopoly power that have no historic justification.

Many call this the New Brandeis school of antitrust, which argues that what matters is market structure, not consumer harm, since Internet era firms including Google, Facebook and Amazon provide consumer benefits at zero prices, or have demonstrably contributed to lower prices.

The subject of antitrust then becomes market structure itself, not consumer harm in the form of higher prices, for example. Some call this a shift to antimonopoly, rather than antitrust, with benefits that are more social and political than economic.

The enemy is “bigness,” not consumer welfare, though some might argue “bigness” is not the problem as much as the ability to exploit bigness. As a practical matter, the real-world test will be bigness itself. How well that will work, if at all, remains to be seen.

Historically, one might note that prior efforts to break up industry power have always resulted in reaccumulation of market share. Market structures do not remain fragmented, but reconcentrate. That is what happens when any competitor creates products that buyers consider superior.

One might note the European telecom regulatory community essentially moved in that direction in mandating wholesale policies for producers in the connectivity business, allowing multiple retailers to use a monopoly network.

That clearly produced more retail competition. It also has reduced profit margins in the industry that limit investment and innovation. It is not clear how much consumers have benefitted. It seems fairly clear that investment has suffered.

Parenthetically, one might also ask what becomes of contestants in global markets, where scale matters, if “bigness” itself becomes grounds for antitrust or anti-monopoly action.  Sometimes, scale is necessary to compete.

Friday, February 22, 2019

How Big is NFV Market?

Investments in telecom service provider network functions virtualization (NFV) and software defined networking (SDN) are expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 94.3 percent until 2022 to over $168 billion according to a new report, released by research company Technology Business Research.

Of course, the range of companies involved is prodigious, including products sold by Cisco Systems, Citrix Systems, Dell Technologies, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Huawei Technologies, Oracle, Nokia, Ericsson, Wind, Allot, Amdocs, Arista, Brocade, F5 Networks, Intel, Juniper, Metaswitch, NEC, Nakina Systems, ConteXtream, Cyan, Openwave, RAD, Opera, Mavenir, Netcracker and many others.


The report indicates that until now, the NFV and SDN market was driven by a small group of 20 to 25 tier-one operators. This group is expected to remain the key investor, with Tier two and tier three operators making their own investments at some point in the future.


NFV is seen by some researchers as encompassing much more than virtualization of communication networks, probably by including all software defined networking functions with network functions virtualization.



5G Standards Explicity Call for Building on 4G

AT&T has been criticized for “confusing” the U.S. market by labeling its advanced 4G network “5G Evolution.” The complaint is that 5G Evolution is not “real 5G.”That requires a bit of explanation, the most important point being that the 5G standard explicitly builds on 4G.

Many observers note that the existence of dense 4G networks featuring using small cells connected using optical fiber reduces the cost of 5G infrastructure. “Operators with existing 4G footprints will be able to leverage their 4G infrastructure for providing 5G services and hence their investment requirement will be relatively less,” said TRAI.

Network Function Virtualization (NFV) and Software Defined Networking (SDN) enable virtual network slices for different vertical markets, and also is an evolution of the core network to support both 4G and 5G.

Massive Multiple Input Multiple Output radios and advanced antenna systems likewise can be part of the transition from 4G to 5G.

In fact, according to 3GPP specifications, 5G will be deployed in two different modes, Non-Standalone (NSA) and Standalone (SA).

In NSA, (5G) NR and (4G) LTE are tightly integrated and connect to either the existing evolved packet core or the 5G NG core. In standalone mode, either 5G NR or 4G LTE radios connect to 5G NG Core.

The point, says India’s TRAI, is that “in order to have speedy deployment of the 5G, initially it is going to be deployed in coexistence with LTE.”

Why is Infrastructure Edge Computing Important?

Thursday, February 21, 2019

Verizon Earns 87% of Profits from Mobility

By now it comes as no surprise that most leading U.S. telcos (but not all) earn most of their money from mobile services, not the fixed network. Verizon, for example, in 2018 earned $91.7 billion from mobile services, representing 70 percent of Verizon’s aggregate revenues.

So everything else, including fixed network operations contributed 30 percent of total revenues.


The retail services portion of the fixed network generated $29.8 billion, representing 23 percent of Verizon’s total revenues. Of that amount, consumer services were $12.6 billion , representing approximately 42 percent of fixed network revenues.

Enterprise revenues were $8.8 billion , representing approximately 30 percent of fixed network revenues.

Wholesale revenues were $4.7 billion , representing approximately 16 percent of Wireline’s aggregate revenues.

Earnings are even more weighted towards mobility. Verizon earns 87 percent of total profits from mobility services, just 13 percent from fixed network services.


source: Bloomberg

Employee Engagement in Asia is Right at the Global Average

The most important drivers of employee engagement at work are whether employees understand what is expected of them, feel they are surrounded by supportive colleagues and believe they will be recognized when they perform well, according to authors Marcus Buckingham and Ashley Goodall.

Employee engagement in Asia in 2017 was right at the global average. Indonesia, India and China scored higher than the global average, according to Aon Hewitt.


Employee engagement can be defined as “the level of an employee’s psychological investment in their organization,” as measured by saying positive things about their organization, acting as advocates, intending to stay at their organization for a long time and striving to give their best efforts to help the organization succeed.

Will Video Content Industry Survive AI?

Virtually nobody in business ever wants to say that an industry or firm transition from an older business model to a newer model is doomed t...