Maybe Moore's Law is Not Dead

Maybe Moore’s Law is not dead. Jim Keller, an architect of Intel’s Athlon64 and Ryzen chips, believes that Moore's Law has not died. 

He said Intel currently has a plan to stack 50 times more transistors than it currently has in its processors. 

source: Intel

Non-Thermal Effects of Non-Ionizing Energy Have Not been Looked at

Up to this point, most studies of non-ionizing radio signals--either well done or not--have focused on thermal effects, as the specific difference between non-ionizing and ionizing radiation is tissue heating in the former case, potential cell or other damage in the latter case.

Non-ionizing energy can warm tissue, but cannot dislodge electrons from an atom or molecule, potentially causing genetic damage, as ionizing energy from X-rays and so forth can do. 

So far, research on non-ionizing energy has not focused on non-thermal effects. It bears watching, though, as always, it will be difficult to show that correlation is causation, there being no way to isolate the impact of all the various sources of energy exposure. 

All that said, prudent behavior is not a bad idea. Though we do not have conclusive evidence that using mobile phones is a hazard, and even if exposure levels in the mobile era have not increased,  it does not hurt to limit exposure to the extent feasible. 

Also, exposure levels in the real world are not the same as levels in some studies of non-ionizing radiation. Drinking water is essential for life. But drinking too much water can kill a person. The same general rule arguably applies to human exposure to all sources of non-ionizing energy in real life.

Linear TV Growing Everywhere but the Americas

Though linear TV subscriptions are going to keep falling in the U.S. and Canadian markets, subscriptions are growing in other Western Hemisphere markets, and likely will grow in many Eastern Hemisphere markets as well. Include streaming subscriptions and accounts will definitely grow in Asia Pacific markets. 

“Household penetration will continue to increase in all regions but APAC and the Americas, says Eulalia Marín-Sorribes, GlobalData technology analyst.

Still, the trend is clear enough: household linear TV penetration in the Americas is expected to decline from 53 percent in 2018 to 49 percent in 2023, says GlobalData.

In 2018, pay-TV household penetration in Central & Eastern Europe reached 71.2 percent, APAC 67.4 percent and Western Europe 62.5 percent. The global average stood at 55.3 percent.

source: GlobalData

"Prices Only Go Down, Not Up"

Among the key business challenges identified at PTC Academy were prices and share of wallet. As Grant Kirkwood, Unitas Global founder pointed out, “prices always go down; they never go up.” Up to a point, the traditional management response has been to grow volume. But that becomes a harder exercise if prices fall rapidly, and consistently. 

The other problem is that demand for legacy products is falling, with demand for new products rising. In the past, that has not been too difficult to manage. Data products sold to enterprises, for example, have gradually evolved over time, and continue to do so. But that is not an existential threat. 

Obviously, it is a bigger danger if markets evolve in the direction of rivals elsewhere in the value chain being able to supply the functions telcos traditionally have provided, themselves. And that was among the points made by Sean Bergin, AP Telecom co-founder. New markets like the internet of things will grow, but the value and share of revenue earned by connectivity providers is expected to decline from perhaps 23 percent of total ecosystem revenue to as little as five percent by 2025.

Source: GSMA

In part, that is because platform and application revenue will inevitably drive more of the total value of using IoT, as most of the economic value of electricity availability is driven by products using electricity; as most of the economic value of internal combustion engines is reaped by firms supplying products that use gasoline. 

Still, that issue of competition from over the top apps and services can be an opportunity or a threat, said Tony Mosley of Ocean Specialists. Partnering with an OTT sometimes can work, he said. Or, firms can move into other areas of the value chain beyond connectivity services. 

The PTC Academy provides management training to rising industry leaders across the Asia Pacific region and is held at various locales yearly, including the annual Septermber event in Bangkok.

Non-Ionizing Radiation Affect on Skin?

People are exposed to all sorts of electromagnetic signals every day, including sunlight, cell phone signals, over-the-air radio, over-the-air TV, televisions, kitchen appliances and so forth. Power lines, and visible light also are sources of non-ionizing radiation. 

Put simply, the risk from non-ionizing radiation is tissue heating, but all consumer appliances and safety standards for cell tower radios are set at levels so low tissue heating does not occur, according to the Federal Communications Commission. Some may worry about non-thermal effects, but nothing has been shown to be conclusive on that score. 

That is not to say no hazards might exist, simply that we have not yet seen clear evidence of such harm to humans who are exposed to normal amounts of non-ionizing signals in daily life. More care has to be taken for workers who are around microwave radios, as radio frequency signal strength is stronger, the closer one is to the source of the signal. 

I’ve already talked about non-ionizing radiation. But here is one more study, looking at RF and skin issues. 

“Overall evaluations showed that the effects of mobile phone radiation on skin diseases are weak and have no statistical significance,” a team of researchers in Iran has found. The key phrase is “no statistical significance.” In other words, observed differences are no different than a random distribution would show. 

The problem with all such studies, even long-term studies, is that we cannot isolate mobile phone use from all other environmental sources of possible skin damage. Even if correlation were shown to exist, it is not clear that there is causation at work. 

This latest study is in that category of inconclusive results.

Malaysian Regulators Cap Prices, Investment Falls

Malaysian regulators are taking credit for lower connectivity prices, according to a report by Mobile World Live. In the three quarters to end-June, fibre access prices fell 48 per cent, uptake increased 21 per cent, and operators introduced higher-speed mobile and fixed broadband packages, according to Al-Ishsal Ishak, Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission chairman.

What is not reported is that prices are down because of price reductions required by MCMC. 

And, as always, when the financial return from a given investment is reduced, investment simply is reduced as well. 

“Actually, given that wholesale carrier prices have been capped, the opposite situation has happened,” says Richard Then, of SACOFA SDN BHD. “Fiber operators have ceased to invest in greenfield builds unless a property developer or the regulator was subsidizing the build.”

It's become an "on-net or no-net" situation, Then says. 

Among the investment barriers are “unprecedented hikes in deposit/bank guarantee requirements, recurring easement lease fees, and the need to award work to designated surveyors or contractors before they can bury the first metre of glass into the ground, often imposed by state, district or city authorities,” says Then. 

“The ecosystem would benefit much more if the legislators worked on these factors rather than squeezing the operators' top line directly,” he says. “Likewise by introducing a ceiling rate for how much landlords can charge operators for putting a tower on their land or rooftops.”

It long has been the case that regulators can choose to emphasize competition and lower prices, or get much more investment. They cannot emphasize both, at the same time. This appears to be another example of that.

Why Advertised Prices are Not Transparent

It actually should not come as a surprise to anyone that final, all-in costs for products ranging from clothing to airline tickets to consumer mobile and telecom services are higher than the “advertised” prices. That is what happens when the internet allows easy price comparisons between alternatives.

If consumers sort by “lowest price,” then any supplier that shows “all-in” costs including taxes, additional fees and options is going to suffer, in comparison to rivals who only show the basic charge, without the upgrades, add-ons or taxes. 

The reason many airlines advertise one base price, without the taxes or various upgrades, is that they do not wish to disadvantage themselves in search engine results. Yes, this means less price transparency. But it is rational behavior, not an attempt to deceive. 

source: Globaldata