Tuesday, February 28, 2023

Valuation Envy Isn't a Problem, Valuations Are

Connectivity providers always “suffer” from lower market valuations than do software and internet-related app providers. As a practical matter, that makes it hard for connectivity providers to use their stock currency to buy higher-valued assets. And, of course, lower valuations make every unit of earnings less valuable than for some other industries. 


Consider that enterprise value to EBITDA ratios for app providers are at least double what they are for connectivity providers. Where cable TV firms might have an EV/EBITDA ratio of about seven, while “telecom services” have a ratio less than six, and mobile firms garner a ratio close to nine, software segments have ratios from 11 to 21. 


Looking at price to sales ratios tells the same story. 

source: CB Insights 


That remained true in 2022. “Telecom services” earned an EV/EBITDA ratio of 6.6. Information services garnered a 25.8 ratio; software a 32.7 ratio; internet software a 23 ratio. 


source: Statista 


As a management professor once told us, if one has a choice, pick a high-growth industry to work in, rather than a slow-growth industry. High growth tends to be associated with higher equity multiples, more opportunities and higher wages.


When Interconnection is About Business Models

At least theoretically, proposals requiring a few hyperscale app providers to pay fees to internet service providers might lead to lower consumer prices for broadband access. Such payments, some believe, could also lead to higher levels of network investment by ISPs. 


A report prepared by Oxera for the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate concludes that advantages likely would be small, and also have a negative impact on content provider business models, which would lead to higher prices for consumers of those products. 


Broadband consumers might benefit if some of the payments were used to lower home broadband or mobile broadband costs. Others might argue that the improved cash flow would not necessarily result in price reductions for consumers, but only higher profits margins for ISPs. 


Also, consumer gains in the form of potential lower internet access prices would be balanced by higher costs for consumers of hyperscale app and content services, as the new costs necessarily would have to be passed on to users of those apps. 


source: Oxera 


Two items are worth noting. First, the relationship between end users of the internet and app providers is a somewhat classic two-sided market, with ISPs and internet backbone providers arguably acting as the “platform.”. On the other hand, the direct business relationship is between an ISP and its own access customers, or between an ISP and a peering fabric or internet exchange point. 


Since the internet is a “permissionless” environment, no app provider requires a direct business relationship with any ISP to be reached by any internet user. 


source: Oxera 


“Overall, our analysis of the proposals for a levy shows that such a policy cannot robustly be shown to increase economic efficiency, and would potentially bring substantial transaction and set-up costs,” Oxera analysts say. “From an economic perspective, once welfare losses in the market for content are accounted for, the net welfare gain from the policy is relatively small.”


“Without a consumer price reduction, the effect of a charging scheme is simply to transfer money from CAPs (content application providers) to telcos,” the report states. 


Oxera also questions the assumption that app providers “cause” network demand. Instead, traffic is typically caused by a consumer of an ISP. “For example, the streaming of music or a film occurs because the consumer sent a request to the CAP to send them the film,” the report says. “The CAP then obliges.”


Traffic is caused by the ISP customer’s initial request, not the fulfillment of that request. As in the case of natural gas, electricity or water consumption; use of toll roads, airports, seaports, public parking or other “utility or infrastructure” assets, it is customers who directly or indirectly pay for usage. 


The point is that, overall, any subsidies extracted from app providers boosts the business case for telcos, while harming the app provider business case. 


source: Oxera


But this battle is likely not about consumer welfare. Rather, it is about ecosystem participant business models. The effort to tax a few hyperscalers is designed to help ISPs and slow down the hyperscalers; help domestic industries at the expense of foreign. So far, few ISPs have 

argued against the hyperscale tax.


In principle, why would they? Hyperscaler taxes shift cash towards ISPs, bolstering ISP business cases.


Monday, February 27, 2023

Wider API Use Could Support Either Horizontal or Vertical Business Models

A layered business model might be viewed as a value chain turned 90 degrees. Where a value chain is depicted horizontally, with stages leading to end user purchase of products, so a layered business model resembles a value chain turned 90 degrees to show that layers of function each contribute to a complete business model. 


source: McKinsey 


The thing about value chains is that they feature distinct roles. In principle, those roles can be vertically integrated or remain horizontally distinct. Decentralization or virtualization do not necessarily alter the type of integration. 


source: Blockchain Hackathon 


Wholesale business models, on the other hand, do affect integration patterns, as they are based on a horizontal model: wholesalers supply essential network functions, but customer-facing operations are typically disaggregated. 


Many other potential innovations might shift vertically-oriented telcos in a more horizontal direction, but not necessarily. 


GSMA Open Gateway is a new framework of universal network Application Programmable Interfaces (APIs) designed to provide developers with access to operator network features. That could, in principle, lend itself to new horizontal roles, but might also simply add a revenue stream to an existing vertical model.

"Radical Shift" of ISP Business Models?

There are platitudes and there are threats and opportunities in business.


When European Commission Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton says “we need to leave behind our long-standing perception of the way (communications) networks operate,” ecosystem participants have to take notice. 


Speaking at MWC Barcelona, Breton reiterated some themes heard often these days:  “telecommunication networks transforming into platforms;” copper networks are being replaced by optical fiber media; virtual reality is coming; Web 4.0 is coming; coming connectivity networks will be a blend of “transmission, storage and computing.”


None of that is too surprising when uttered by a regulator. But ecosystem participants are right to pay attention when a regulator talks about a  “radical shift” of business models, specifically questioning “the traditional model of vertical integration.”


To be sure, in context, Breton was referring to the “digital industry” in a broad sense. Referring specifically to connectivity providers, Breton said “telcos are demonstrating that they are on their way to become service platform providers.”


Specifically, Breton seemed to be referring to telcos “becoming network-as-a-service providers.” None of that is necessarily a radical shift. In fact, most service providers see “network as a service” as an ancillary revenue stream, and not necessarily as a “revolutionary” move. 


The heart of the matter addressed in his speech is funding mechanisms for gigabit infrastructure, specifically proposed new concepts that would have a few hyperscale app providers paying access providers for the right to land traffic on those networks. 


Those of you familiar with communications network interconnection practices might not find that terribly controversial, in one sense. Public service providers (telcos) always have compensated each other for landing traffic on interconnected networks. 


So internet service providers peer with each other when traffic is roughly equal, outbound and inbound, or assess fees when traffic is asymmetrical. 


Others might find the notion highly controversial. Interconnection applies to asymmetrical inbound traffic between public carriers. The proposed new rules taxing content providers would treat a few hyperscalers as though they were public carriers, even when it is ISP customers who are initiating the sessions and causing the inbound traffic loads. 


Historically, any access provider would bill its own customers for use of the network, using both flat fee and usage-based charging mechanisms based on its own customers’ demand. “Use more, pay more” is the general idea. That has included use of other service provider networks to terminate traffic off the local network. 


Hyperscalers are not public networks. Nor do they initiate access network customer requests. Instead, each ISP’s own customers create the inbound traffic load. In virtually every other industry where usage of network resources happens, customers pay for consumption.


That applies to toll roads, seaport access, natural gas consumption, electricity use, wastewater facilities or airport landing gates, for example.


In this case, as in the other instances, ISP customers are driving the inbound demand, invoking video content, for example, as they might in earlier times have made long distance phone calls, or sent text messages. When customers have paid for linear video subscriptions, the networks fulfilling that demand were not charged because network resources were used. Instead, the subscribers paid. 


In the end, consumers wind up paying for all costs. In the case of taxes on a few hyperscalers for landing traffic, it will be the users of those apps who wind up paying. But that is the point.


ISPs want more money for building their networks and they want somebody else to pay for upgrades. That “somebody else” is users of a few hyperscale apps or business partners of the firms offering those apps. That includes advertisers, merchants and end users. 


And then there are the industrial policy drivers. European and East Asian firms would like to promote indigenous suppliers at home in their battle against competitors based in the United States. Taxes on a few U.S. hyperscalers are viewed within that context by policymakers as well.


Will APIs Boost Mobile Operator Revenue?

Mobile operators always are on the lookout for new revenue sources, and many now hope application programming interfaces can boost revenue. 


GSMA Open Gateway is a new framework of universal network application programming interfaces (APIs) designed to provide developers with access to operator network features, starting with eight features:


  • SIM Swap, 

  • QoD

  • Device Status (Connected or Roaming Status)

  • Number Verify

  • Edge Site Selection and Routing

  • Number Verification (SMS 2FA)

  • Carrier Billing – Check Out

  • Device Location (Verify Location). 


Additional APIs are expected, and GSMA touts the move as similar in potential impact to voice roaming, in terms of enabling global access in a consistent manner. 


Edge Site Selection and Routing supports autonomous vehicles. Verify Location is expected to support  fleet management and incident reporting.


SIM Swap is intended to deter financial crime. “Quality on demand” (QoD) is expected to support low-latency applications such as drone control, robotics, extended reality and immersive online gaming, GSMA says. 


Designed to expose mobile operators’ network capabilities, the effort initially is supported by 21 mobile network operators, 


GSMA itself says the move “represents a paradigm shift.” 


Participants include America Movil, AT&T, Axiata, Bharti Airtel, China Mobile, Deutsche Telekom, e& Group, KDDI, KT, Liberty Global, MTN, Orange, Singtel, Swisscom, STC, Telefónica, Telenor, Telstra, TIM, Verizon and Vodafone.


The level of success might ultimately be determined by developer interest in using those network features and whether and how much mobile operators can create revenue models around the APIs. 


source: Yalantis 


The GSMA Open Gateway has mobile operators in the role of API Provider, while developers are API Consumers. 

source: Yalantis 


The unstated assumption is that developers will find the APIs so compelling they will pay to use them, rather than attempting to create access to those features themselves. The extent of value also hinges on whether a desired value can be sourced in some other way, or does not add enough value to warrant payment of fees.


Sunday, February 26, 2023

What does "Communications" Mean, These Days?

Words have meaning, so changes in words also can have meaning. Consider the “communications” segment of the Standard and Poors 500 index.


The "communications" sector of the S&P 500 includes companies involved in advertising, media, internet services, and telecommunications. Each of those segments operates in different parts of the internet ecosystem, with distinct roles and valuation profiles. Lumping them all together might obscure more than it reveals. 


The firms tracked as part of the S&P 500 “communications index include: 


  1. Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL)

  2. Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOG)

  3. AT&T Inc. (T)

  4. Charter Communications Inc. Class A (CHTR)

  5. Comcast Corporation Class A (CMCSA)

  6. DISH Network Corporation Class A (DISH)

  7. Meta (META)

  8. Netflix Inc. (NFLX)

  9. Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC)

  10. The Interpublic Group of Companies Inc. (IPG)

  11. Twitter Inc. (TWTR)

  12. Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ)

  13. Walt Disney Company (DIS)


I don’t know about you, but I evaluate asset-light advertising firms quite differently from capital-intensive connectivity firms, and media content owners different from both those other segments. Likewise, I would not consider Alphabet, Twitter and Meta in the same category as advertising, connectivity or content ownership firms. And even if other firms in the index have some streaming exposure, they are not pure-play streamers like Netflix. 


The point is that knowing how the firms in the index have performed financially does not really tell you much about how each of the sectors performed; what their growth rates are or how they should be valued relative to their “peers.” 


Charter, Comcast, Verizon, Dish and AT&T are in one valuation range. Alphabet, Meta, Twitter are in another range. Mobile firms recently have featured EBITDA multiples in the seven range. 


Advertising and marketing firms have had multiples in the 10.6 range. Cable TV companies have been valued at about 7.5 multiples. “Integrated telecommunications services: have a 6.8 multiple. “Online services” garner a multiple of 15.9. 


It does not necessarily illuminate our understanding that firms with such disparate multiples are considered to be in a single index. 


By some estimates, The average P/E ratio for U.S. telcos  was around 20 as of 2021.Online services provider average P/E ratio was around 50 in 2021. By other estimates the ratios were lower. 


Using TTM/GAAP metrics, Verizon’s early 2023 P/E ratio was about 7.7. Comcast in the same period had a 31 P/E while Charter had a 12 ratio. Netflix had a 35 P/E ratio. Alphabet and Meta had ratios close to 20. 


Omnicom had a ratio of about 14.4. Disney, meanwhile, traded at about 55 times earnings. Netflix traded at 34.7 times earnings. 


To be sure, ratios are affected by firm size, growth rates, firm efficiency, debt loads and investor sentiment. 


But you get the point: S&P assembles a single index including firms with wildly-different earnings or price ratios, producing an “average” performance index that might actually obscure more than it reveals.


"Communications" as Viewed by S&P Index Has Lost Meaning

Words have meaning, so changes in words also can have meaning. Consider the “communications” segment of the Standard and Poors 500 index.


The "communications" sector of the S&P 500 includes companies involved in advertising, media, internet services, and telecommunications. Each of those segments operates in different parts of the internet ecosystem, with distinct roles and valuation profiles. Lumping them all together might obscure more than it reveals. 


The firms tracked as part of the S&P 500 “communications index include: 


  1. Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL)

  2. Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOG)

  3. AT&T Inc. (T)

  4. Charter Communications Inc. Class A (CHTR)

  5. Comcast Corporation Class A (CMCSA)

  6. DISH Network Corporation Class A (DISH)

  7. Meta (META)

  8. Netflix Inc. (NFLX)

  9. Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC)

  10. The Interpublic Group of Companies Inc. (IPG)

  11. Twitter Inc. (TWTR)

  12. Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ)

  13. Walt Disney Company (DIS)


I don’t know about you, but I evaluate asset-light advertising firms quite differently from capital-intensive connectivity firms, and media content owners different from both those other segments. Likewise, I would not consider Alphabet, Twitter and Meta in the same category as advertising, connectivity or content ownership firms. And even if other firms in the index have some streaming exposure, they are not pure-play streamers like Netflix. 


The point is that knowing how the firms in the index have performed financially does not really tell you much about how each of the sectors performed; what their growth rates are or how they should be valued relative to their “peers.” 


Charter, Comcast, Verizon, Dish and AT&T are in one valuation range. Alphabet, Meta, Twitter are in another range. Mobile firms recently have featured EBITDA multiples in the seven range. 


Advertising and marketing firms have had multiples in the 10.6 range. Cable TV companies have been valued at about 7.5 multiples. “Integrated telecommunications services: have a 6.8 multiple. “Online services” garner a multiple of 15.9. 


It does not necessarily illuminate our understanding that firms with such disparate multiples are considered to be in a single index.


AI Will Improve Productivity, But That is Not the Biggest Possible Change

Many would note that the internet impact on content media has been profound, boosting social and online media at the expense of linear form...