In Home Broadband, Physical Media Matters, But Perhaps Not as Much as You Might Think

There always is a gap between deployed fiber-to-premises passings and customer uptake. As a practical matter, there is a lag between full marketing results and network construction. Secondly, it does not appear that “fiber access,” in and of itself, necessarily is the preferred consumer choice in competitive markets. 

source: BT, LightReading 

In markets with strong cable operator competition, for example, FTTH tends to get between 40 percent penetration and 45 percent adoption after about three years of marketing. Some FTTH ISPs hope to reach a terminal adoption rate of 50 percent, but that is about the extent of expectations. 

source: IDATE, TelecomTV

Data from other European markets shows similar gaps between facilities deployment and take rates, where take rates hover between 45 percent and 47 percent. And that is a view of physical media choices, not necessarily speed tiers chosen by customers. 

We often assume the key point is service delivery by optical fiber at the premises. The better metric is consumer choice of service plans ranked either by speed or price. 

source: Omdia, Medux 

Customers often choose not to buy the fastest tiers of service on any home broadband network, even if the percentage taking higher-speed tiers continues to grow. That is what one would expect, of course, as “typical” or “average” speeds continue to grow. Still, many consumers choose not to buy the “fastest” tiers, but rather tiers someplace in the middle between fastest and slowest. 

source: OpenVault

The point is that assessing physical media availability does not directly correlate with any particular consumer choices related to speed tiers. Speeds will keep growing on all access platforms over time. So physical media alone does not directly correlate to specific choices consumers make.   

source: RVA, Broadband Communities 

We often equate “fiber access” with “speed.” That requires some qualification. Gigabit or multi-gigabit speeds are possible. That does not mean they are always offered, or that, when offered, that consumers buy the services. 

What matters is both availability and take rates of gigabit and multi-gigabit services. Physical media really is not the issue.