Why Global Connectivity Revenue will Close to Double Over 10 years

Though executives and participants might prefer a higher rate of revenue growth (not inflation adjusted), a two-percent annual revenue growth rates, which is around consensus, still manages to approximate a doubling of revenue in a bit over 10 years.

The global connectivity services market represented $1.8 billion in 2022 and is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.2 percent (not inflation adjusted) from 2020 to 2030, according to Grand View Research estimates. 

Statista also forecasts revenue in about that range as well. 

In simple annual terms, that implies an annual growth rate just a bit under two percent, with growth close to doubling over the 10-year period (not inflation adjusted). To actually double in 10 years, a CAGR of about 7.2 percent is required. As with all such forecasts, some analysts predict slightly higher growth rates, while some project slightly lower.  

Given the relatively saturated nature of developed country markets, it might come as a surprise that growth rates in the U.S. market, for example, are nearly identical to global growth rates, as shown by Grand View Research estimates.

The issue is how much revenue growth can be gotten outside the mobility segment of the business, which in 2022 represented more than 76 percent of total service provider revenues globally. Consumer revenue represents about 60 percent of total, with “business” revenue generating about 40 percent of total revenue. 

Some observers believe that the share of business revenue will drive incremental revenue growth in the 5G and 6G eras. We will have to see. That 60/40 revenue split between consumer and business revenues has been consistent in both fixed and mobile segments for decades, varying more by geography (urban area versus rural; economically robust or not) than customer type. 

For all the hopeful talk about the internet of things driving new revenue, Grand View researchers see little chance that segment will grow very much between now and 2030. In part, that is because no matter how many devices are attached, with new subscription revenue, the revenue per connection is small, compared to a mobile phone connection. 

Also, there exist many other alternatives for connecting sensors and devices, including Wi-Fi, Bluetooth and specialized data networks. 

We also can see that little growth is seen for fixed network voice or subscription video services. 

To the extent private networks or edge computing drives new revenue, it is recorded in the fixed network access services category, which does show growth. 

Since about 1980, global revenue growth rates have slowed dramatically, despite the huge increase in global population using mobile phones. Mobile service subscriptions now represent 75 percent of total service provider revenue. 

Year	Annual Growth Rate
1980	10.2%
1981	8.4%
1982	6.7%
1983	7.3%
1984	8.2%
1985	9.1%
1986	8.9%
1987	8.6%
1988	8.3%
1989	8.0%
1990	7.7%
1991	7.4%
1992	7.1%
1993	6.8%
1994	6.5%
1995	6.2%
1996	5.9%
1997	5.6%
1998	5.3%
1999	5.0%
2000	4.7%
2001	4.4%
2002	4.1%
2003	3.8%
2004	3.5%
2005	3.2%
2006	2.9%
2007	2.6%
2008	2.3%
2009	2.0%
2010	1.7%
2011	1.4%
2012	1.1%
2013	0.8%
2014	0.5%
2015	0.2%
2016	-0.1%
2017	0.0%
2018	0.3%
2019	0.6%
2020	0.7%
2021	1.9%
2022	2.4%