What is Netflix's Long-Term Position in Online Video Business?

Netflix has confounded naysayers for years. The basic argument has been that the DVD rental business would be replaced by online video, and that Netflix would not make the adjustment.

So far, Netflix has proved doubters spectacularly wrong. By all accounts, it is making a steady transition to online delivery, and its customers seem to be adapting as well. So perhaps a new consensus has developed: that Netflix is among the firms that will survive the transition from physical media delivery to online delivery.

If you have been in most Best Buy outlets recently, you get a sense that Best Buy is serous about ultimately phasing out sales of physical media content, to the extent that floor space is an indication of what a retailer expects to sell.

Perhaps oddly, then, one might ask the question of whether online delivery is an unalloyed good thing for Netflix. Some might argue it will pose new, and different questions, for Netflix.

Up to this point, most seem to agree that switching to online delivery saves Netflix money because the company avoids paying postal fees for delivery. That's true.

But content owners are becoming more aggressive about protecting their online rights, and it is a reasonable prediction that Netflix will have to pay much more, in the future, for access to content it can stream. That obviously could pose issues for the revenue model, given the low costs Netflix now imposes on users of its library.

If its content acquisition costs rise, Netflix will face margin pressure, with the obvious choice of raising prices or watching its margins tumble. Higher prices might limit growth, but higher prices seem almost inevitable, at some point.

In the chart, for example, note the blue bar, representing streaming content costs, compared to the white bar, which represents  DVD content acquisition costs.

At the same time, a switch to streaming, rather than DVD rentals, will cost Netflix more, over time. Now, Netflix can buy a DVD, pay once, and rent the disc until it is worn out. When streaming, the typical deal is that the content owner gets 60 percent of the gross rental fee. So there is more financial leverage when sourcing content by buying DVDs.

Other distributors pay similar amounts, of course, but generally price each viewing at higher rates, ranging from $1.99 to $4.99 per movie (or more) on Apple's iTunes, Amazon On Demand, Vudu, and cable, satellite or telco video on demand services, for example. TV show rentals might cost the end user $1 per episode.

Netflix now offers a $7.99 per month unlimited streaming service, and you can guess that the economics can invert, given reasonable volume. You might wonder how Netflix can even offer the unlimited $7.99 streaming plan, and the answer is that it has agreements that were very generous. But it takes no insight to argue that future agreements will not offer such advantages.

The Netflix deal for Starz contnet, signed in October 2008, gave Netflix access to approximately 2,500 Disney and Sony movies for less than $0.15 per subscriber per month for its content, compared to the $2 to $4 per subscriber per month that TV operators typically pay Starz.

Netflix signed a deal to stream content from Epix, which is owned by three studios, Paramount Pictures, Lions Gate and Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer. The exact terms of the deal haven't been disclosed, but numerous reports say it's for up to $1 billion over five years.

Importantly, Netflix won't be able to stream Epix's movies until 90 days after they have reached Epix's distribution window, which is typically 6-12 months after a movie is first available on premium movie channels, so this deal won't address Netflix's problem that it offers no current releases.

On the operating cost side, one might argue that more streaming means less mailing of DVDs, and hence less cost. That's correct. But one might quickly conclude that Netflix will have to pay more for streaming rights than it can possibly save in postage and fulfillment costs.

Perhaps the impact already is being felt. In the third quarter of 2010, Netflix's operating margin was 12.6 percent and net margin was 6.9 percent, down from 14.9 percent and 8.4 percent, respectively, in the second quarter. Some would say that is the result of higher content payments not balanced by an equal reduction in distribution cost.

There are other issues as well. At some point, if consumers start paying for bandwidth consumed that accounts for higher video consumption, the implied cost of streaming delivery will grow, increasing the "price" part of the "value versus price" equation. That could make other alternatives, especially a multichannel video subscription plus digital video recorder, a much more attractive "value."

That will especially be true for wireless providers, as people are getting used to watching video on their mobiles, and viewing on an iPad or wireless-connected PC also can be a satisfactory experience. Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Craig Moffett, for example, expects the revenue per megabit for wireless providers to fall from 43 cents today to just 2 cents in 2014.

Down the road are other potential risks to the business model as well. In September, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit issued adecision that calls into question the First Sale Doctrine. Though it was a case related to re-selling software, the court observed that the policy implications might affect movies as well.

To get early access to fresh content, Netflix will have to pay more. If it chooses not to do so, the value of its library might weaken, from a customer's perspective. If it pays more to acquire more, and fresher content, its costs go up. So Netflix might have to raise prices. That could change its place in the market.

Netflix could accept lower margins, up to a point. Amazon certainly seems willing to do so. But assuming Netflix can manage those challenges, it does seem that a strategic choice has to be made. Netflix can offer a wider array of current content at higher prices, or a more-limited range of library or catalog content at lower prices. Some would argue it will do both, offering "enough" content at "good enough" prices to establish its position within the overall online video market.

Even in the more-established "premium" channel space, there is content differentiation between HBO, Starz and Showtime because none of the networks can afford to buy rights to all "new release" movie content, for example.

The trick will be to build on the library while adding just enough fresh and recent content to remain competitive. It's a tall order, but Netflix has confounded its critics in the past.

Whitney Tilson: Why We’re Short Netflix - Seeking Alpha:

Blockbuster Tries to Take Advantage of its 28-Day Release Window Advantage

We should soon see whether Blockbuster's 28-day earlier release window for new release DVDs confers any business advantage over other competitors in the space, especially Netflix and Redbox, as Blockbuster and its studio partners seem to think will be the case.

Blockbuster announced availability of the hit movie, "It's Complicated" from Blockbuster in stores, by mail, or digitally, a full four weeks before it will be available through some competitors.

Blockbuster's early advantage reflects its ongoing agreement with Universal Studios to provide customers with the opportunity to rent hit movies the day they are released. Blockbuster also has early availability of other box office hits like Sherlock Holmes and the highest grossing film of all-time, Avatar, as well as other upcoming new releases such as Tooth Fairy, Valentine's Day, and Invictus.

Blockbuster also has struck deals with mobile handset providers to put the "Blockbuster On Demand" app prominently on the main screens of about 60 models of Samsung Blu-ray Players, HDTVs, and Blu-ray Home Theater Systems, as well as on T-Mobile's HTC HD2.

Blockbuster is the only multichannel provider that has every hot new movie on the day of its release, it's just that simple. What we now shall see is whether that makes a material difference for Blockbuster. Release windows typically have been important in the movie distribution business, so some shift should be seen.

Is Digital Delivery Destroying Other Parts of the Movie Ecosystem?

Reality typically is more complex than any forecast about reality. Consider the movie business and downstream ecosystem. Digital entertainment was supposed to destroy the movie theater business, but evidence is contradictory on that score.

It might be more accurate to say that the digital entertainment business is hitting "physical media" sales more than anything else. In the first half of 2009, ticket sales grew 17.5 percent, according to Media by Numbers, a box-office tracking company. You might argue that is the result of higher ticket prices or a desire to momentarily escape recession woes.

As it turns out, neither of those factors seem to be driving the trend. Attendance jumped by nearly 16 percent in the first half of 2009. If those rates hold for the whole year, it would be the biggest box-office surge in at least two decades.

There likely is some truth to the adage that "people go to movies more frequently in a recession." But the evidence is mixed on that score. The last time Hollywood enjoyed a double-digit jump in attendance was 1989, when the unemployment rate was at a comfortable 5.4 percent. That year, the number of moviegoers shot up 16.4 percent, according to Box Office Mojo.

In 1982, theater attendance jumped 10.1 percent to about 1.18 billion as unemployment rose sharply past 10 percent. Then admissions fell nearly 12 percent, an unusually sharp drop, in 1985, as the economy picked up.

The economy's effect is a bit unclear, in other words. As always is the case, though, movie attendance is higher when film-makers create movies lots of people want to see, and that likely is a part of the story.

The film industry over the last year or two has released movies that are happier, scarier or just less depressing than what came before, some might argue.

Still, the point is that digital delivery has not adversely affected theater attendance of late.

DVD sales are another matter. In 2008, movie ticket sales surpassed DVD revenue, according to Adams Media Research. Where 2009 box office receipts grew 10 percent $9.87 billion, DVD sales fell 13 percent to $8.73 billion.

For whatever reason, consumers are spending less money buying DVDs than they had been for most of the past 10 years, and a reasonable guess would be that video on demand and other streaming services finally are starting to have an impact. The other angle is that Netflix has kept growing as well, despite predictions by many that growth would falter as Internet delivery and VOD became more established behaviors.

Consumers may also have realized that they will not watch most movies more than once. That will shift behavior towards rental services and VOD.

The prevailing wisdom is that the DVD business is in a permanent decline. A few years ago many analysts wrongly predicted that theater sales would drop every year, as well. One should never underestimate the impact business decisions by the movie ecosystem can have.

Making movies people want to see plays a huge role, for example. Pricing and distribution decisions made in the DVD sales and rental channel also can have a huge and unforseen impact. Netflix disrupted the retail rental store business, for example.

Also, Blu-ray HDTV appliance adoption might be playing a role as well. Though the installed base of DVD players still represent the lion's share of device usage, Blu-ray obviously is growing. That could have consumers holding back on purchases of physical media they believe will someday go the way of casette tapes.

Blu-Ray Sales Double, Packaged Media Not Dead?

A new study from Adams Media Research shows that sales of Blu-ray discs in the first quarter of 2009 nearly doubled compared to the same period a year ago, rising to nearly 9 million from 4.8 million in the first quarter of 2008.

Netflix also seems to be growing, and is expected to have 11.2 million subscribers by the end of 2009, after hitting the 10-million subscriber mark for the first time in February 2009.

http://www.pcworld.com/article/163294/if_bluray_is_dying_why_are_disc_sales_soaring.html?tk=rss_main

DVDs, Concerts, CDs: Attention Deficit

Alliance Bernstein Research reports that DVD sales were down 4.1 percent in December, year to date, and that the fourth quarter declined 2.1 percent, based on Nielsen VideoScan tabulations.

That makes 2007 the first negative sales growth year-over-year since DVDs came to market. Which drives one to speculate that multi-tasking and attention sharing now is beginning to show. There are other possible explanations, of course.

The high-definition format battle might be a factor. Consumers might be waiting until the dust settles before beginning a switch to HD format disks.

As retailers blame the weather for slower than anticipated sales, we might this year point to a tougher economic climate and consumer unwillingness or inability to spend on such things, as well.

The total North American concert industry also posted its slowest year since 2004. According to Pollstar, the top 20 tours generated $996 million, down 15.6 percent from 2006 totals.