What Role for Mobile Video?

According to Yankee Group researchers, 34 percent of respondents who watch video on their mobile phone at least once a week say they watch user-generated videos. 


That isn't to say they wouldn't watch professionally-produced video as well, but those options are not generally easily available. 


These videos from sites like YouTube or Facebook are by far the most popular content. YouTube just recently announced it is receiving 200 million mobile views of its videos daily, a 300 percent increase from last year. The next most popular, TV show clips, are cited by just 20 percent of respondents. 


So how big a business could mobile video, in the form of a channel for the sorts of programs people now watch on cable, telco or satellite systems, get to be? Content providers ultimately will have to decide how much to support streamed or multicast video for mobile consumption. 


The current hope is that revenue from the existing linear business (cable, satellite and telco TV) will continue to grow steadily, while incremental and significant new revenues can be earned from over-the-top delivery as well. Whether consumers will accept that state of affairs is a growing issue. 


The whole assumption behind "TV Everywhere" efforts is that consumers get mobile access as part of their fixed-network video service. But if subscription costs keep rising four to seven percent a year, there is just some point at which consumers will be unable to afford the fixed-network product, much less pay more for mobile access.


The probable future disruption of the video business might not be caused so much by the availability of new delivery channels and devices as by a consumer revolt over high prices. So how could mobile video work in a future environment where willingness to pay hits a wall?


Fundamentally, providers would have to adjust either the "value" part of the equation or the "price" part, or both. If consumers can get "what they really want," while paying no more than what they already pay, we could see a significant shift to "on demand only" delivery modes. 


Mobile might then become a significant channel for subscribers with high needs to watch professionally-created programming, including sports and news, where they are. Those are the two "real time" genres with an "event" character. Movies can be watched on a highly time-shifted basis. Sports and news really are better when consumed "live and in real time."


Mobile is arguably the best platform for that, in terms of immediacy, if not "screen size" parts of the experience. 




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TV Everywhere Will Stall Growth of Online Video, One Can Argue

Some observers, not without reason, predict the days of linear multi-channel video are numbered. But that possible transition is likely to take much longer than most expect, in part because incumbents still have weapons at their disposal, including the $32 billion in fees cable operators alone pay to programmers every year.

"TV Everywhere," will allow online viewers to watch shows for no incremental charge, if they're cable subscribers. If programmers go along with the concept, there is almost no way a sizable alternative channel will open up, at least for network fare.

Cable industry executives hope the plan will indeed deflect the online video threat. At least so far, content owners seem unwilling to abandon their long-standing distribution agreements with cable operators. And so long as cable and other distributors remain so key to profits in the broader video ecosystem, no challengers are likely to succeed.

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"Superphones" Will Drive Widespread Media Consumption, Glaser Says

Many observers have called the mobile phone or smartphone the "fourth screen" for multimedia content, and RealNetworks agrees with that assessment.

In fact, a new generation of devices one might call a "superphone" will be a primary way users consume video and audio content, says Rob Glaser, former RealNetworks CEO.

The future of media will be information consumed on superphones while on the go, Glaser argues. By 2013 the installed base of smart and superphones will exceed the installed base of PCs, and those Web-surfing devices will be mobile.

People want digital persistence, he argues. In other words, they want their content to be available everywhere, at any point in time, Glaser argues. That implies a world in which content is available on any number of devices, with methods for verifying the right any single has to use paid-for content.

That's part of the thinking behind the cable industry's "TV Everywhere" initiative, but also a way for cable distributors to maintain their relevance in a world with alternate distirbution channels.

Such ability to experience TV or video on mobile devices will have repercussions for a wide range of participants in the video ecosystem. Mobile providers will have to supply an order of magnitude more bandwidth. Devices will have to adapt to form factors conducive to media player usage.

Distributors will have to work to maintain their relevance in the content distribution system, and mobile marketers will find mobile video a more-attractive marketing medium.