If the Internet Collapsed "Distance," AI Collapses Time

If the core function of the internet is connectivity and the core value is the collapse of distance, then the core function of artificial intelligence is cognition and the core value is the collapse of time. 

If the internet makes physical location less important, AI makes complexity less important, reducing the time to derive insights. 

But both the internet and AI are going to disintermediate value chains, removing distribution functions and providers. 

Dimension	Internet	AI
Core Function	Connectivity: linking people, machines, data, and services across networks.	Cognition: performing tasks that require perception, reasoning, analysis, prediction, or decision support.
Primary Value Created	Eliminating distance: collapsing geography; enabling instantaneous communication and access.	Saving time: collapsing effort; automating, accelerating, or augmenting cognitive tasks.
Economic Logic	Reduces transaction and coordination costs associated with physical separation.	Reduces cognitive labor costs and enhances productivity by automating thinking tasks.
Primary Constraint	Bandwidth, latency, physical infrastructure (fiber, spectrum).	Quality of data, model capability, alignment with goals, compute.
Main Units of Scarcity	Transport capacity (Mbps/Gbps), access points (ports, routers), spectrum.	Compute, data quality, reasoning ability, task generalization.
User Experience Shift	From location-dependent to location-independent access.	From manual decision-making to automated or assisted decision-making.
Industrial Impact	Creates global digital markets; enables remote work, cloud services, platform economies.	Automates white-collar workflows; reshapes knowledge industries; introduces agentic systems.
Business Models	Subscription access, metered usage, advertising, platform marketplaces.	API usage, per-inference billing, embedded intelligence in existing software, agentic task fees.
Strategic Advantage	Owning the pipes, connectivity footprint, spectrum, and interconnection points.	Owning the models, data, workflows, and user attention for cognitive automation.
Regulatory Focus	Universal access, net neutrality, infrastructure competition.	Bias, transparency, safety, copyright, workforce displacement.
Transformation Pattern	Disintermediation of distance-dependent middlemen (retail → e-commerce; media → streaming).	Disintermediation of cognition-dependent middlemen (analysts, coordinators, support roles via agents).

So one way of understanding AI is to view it as a new form of infrastructure, as is the internet, as was electricity or railroads. In that view, potential over-investment happens because the new infrastructure has to be created, and not because of a mania or bubble over asset values that are illusory. 

That might temper some of the concern over AI asset valuations or investment magnitude, which can appear excessive in the near term, and might well be, in some instances. Such early over-investment tends to happen when a new general-purpose technology emerges, and especially when that GPT involves infrastructure.  

Historically, transformative infrastructure projects such as railroads experienced periods of perceived "over-investment," where excess capacity was common before widespread economic and societal adoption caught up. 

The U.S. railroad boom of the late 19th century and the electricity grid’s rollout involved capital surges, initial overbuilding, and even bankruptcies. However, over time, these investments generated foundational benefits, enabling entirely new industries and reshaping nations.

So although the superficial similarity between an irrational asset bubble and an infrastructure boom can exist, they are quite different. 

While a financial bubble features a disconnect between investment and credible returns, general-purpose infrastructure has long-term value, even if some amount of capital is misallocated. 

But that’s the issue right now: some see the infrastructure for a general-purpose technology being built; others see mostly speculation. It can be hard to tell the difference in the early going. 

Criterion	Productive Infrastructure	Speculative Excess
Cost-Benefit Analysis	Thorough, data-driven	Minimal or absent
Multiplier Effect	High, measurable output/wages	Weak, limited economic return
Demand Alignment	Supported by real user/market needs	Based on future hype, not evidence
Systemic Productivity	Positive spillovers	Neutral or negative impact
Asset Price Relationship	Aligned with long-term value	Driven by short-term speculation
Evaluation Rigor	Institutional, non-partisan reviews	Ad hoc, driven by momentum

Plant-Based Meat Products Show Substitution is Hard

It is a truism that substitute products, such as plant-based proteins that mimic meat, must have some obvious value that induces consumers to switch. That might be lower price, clear product advantages or something else.

So far, plant-based meat substitutes have not gotten the formula right. 

source: Good Food Institute

Many would-be buyers arguably still would prefer to substitute plant-based protein for meat. But product improvements and price issues have to be addressed.

So far, though advocates might be repeat buyers, the typical shopper has not found the expected product advantages, nor any cost advantage. 

Plant-based meat has carried a large price gap versus conventional meat of as much as 80 percent. Not many product alternatives with comparable characteristics or value to the target product are going to succeed with a price premium that large. 

But for many buyers, product attributes are not “equal.” Taste and texture seem to discourage buyers.  

Macro pressures (inflation, cost sensitivity) do not help, either. 

Year	Plant-based meat & seafood retail sales (USD)	Unit sales (million units)	Total plant-based retail food sales (USD)	Household penetration (% of U.S. households buying plant-based meat & seafood)
2022	$1.43 B (approx.) — industry retail estimate. The Good Food Institute	270 million units (GFI/SPINS). The Good Food Institute	$8.2 B (GFI/SPINS dataset for 2022). The Good Food Institute	19% (household penetration, 2022). The Good Food Institute
2023	$1.26 B (approx., derived from reported year-over-year change). The Good Food Institute	— (category showed declines vs 2022; SPINS/GFI tracked a drop but official 2023 unit number is in the GFI dataset). The Good Food Institute	$8.1 B (GFI/PBFA reporting for 2023). The Good Food Institute	15% (penetration, 2023). The Good Food Institute
2024	$1.17 B (GFI market overview / SPINS-based figure). The Good Food Institute	195 million units (GFI report: 195M units sold in 2024). The Good Food Institute	≈ $8.1 B (category roughly stable overall; plant-based meat & milk declines offset other growth). The Good Food InstituteThe Food Institute	13% (penetration, 2024). The Good Food Institute

But work continues on a number of fronts, experts say. So early obstacles might be overcome, optimists will insist. And some might argue that a few use cases, such as plant-based substitutes for ground meat (hamburger patties, sausages) have proven most successful so far. 

Category	Method	Purpose	Example Brands / Products
Taste	Protein purification & low-heat processing	Remove off-flavors (beany, grassy, bitter) from pea/soy proteins	Ripple Foods (pea milk), Beyond Meat’s pea protein refinement
	Enzymatic treatment of proteins	Break down bitter peptides, improve solubility	Ingredion (Versawave proteins), Burcon NutraScience
	Yeast & mushroom extracts	Boost umami and savory meat-like flavor	Quorn (mycoprotein), Unilever The Vegetarian Butcher
	Maillard reaction precursors	Create cooked-meat aroma during cooking	Impossible Burger uses amino acids + sugars for aroma
	Cultured fats for flavor release	Provide authentic meat fat flavor during cooking	Mission Barns, Lypid
Texture	High-moisture extrusion (HME)	Align protein fibers to mimic muscle	Beyond Meat, MorningStar Farms Incogmeato, Nestlé Sensational Burger
	Shear-cell technology	Create long fibrous structures without high temp/pressure	Nutreco / Rival Foods partnership
	Blending multiple proteins	Adjust chewiness & elasticity	Gardein (pea + wheat + soy), Lightlife
	Encapsulated fats & emulsions	Simulate marbling & juiciness	Lypid PhytoFat, Beyond Meat marbling
	Layered component assembly	Build steak/chicken textures with different layers	Meati (mycelium-based “whole cut”), Juicy Marbles (plant-based steak)
Visual realism	Natural colorants	Raw-to-cooked color shift	Impossible (soy leghemoglobin), Beyond (beet juice extract)
	Visible marbling inclusions	Mimic animal fat streaks	Juicy Marbles, Chunk Foods
	Heat-reactive appearance	Browning/grill mark simulation	MorningStar Grillers, Beyond Cookout Burger
Advanced / Hybrid	Precision fermentation	Produce animal-identical proteins (heme, whey, casein)	Impossible Foods (heme), Perfect Day (whey protein)
	Cultured fat inclusion	Use real animal fat grown in bioreactors	Mission Barns, Hoxton Farms
	3D food printing	Layer plant proteins for whole-muscle cuts	Redefine Meat, NovaMeat
	Enzyme cross-linking	Modify protein gels for bite & elasticity	Enzymtec, R&D at Kerry
	Hybrid plant + cultivated meat	Improve taste & realism while reducing animal content	Eat Just GOOD Meat, Upside Foods (future planned blends)

Product substitution can take any number of forms, including changes of technology, price, value, performance, problem solved or different materials or construction. 

Technology-driven substitution

New Product	Replaced Product	Why It Succeeded
Smartphones	Feature phones, standalone cameras, MP3 players, GPS devices	Combined multiple devices in one; convenience outweighed cost
Streaming services (Netflix, Spotify)	DVD rentals, CDs, broadcast TV, radio	On-demand access, personalization, lower friction
LED lighting	Incandescent & CFL bulbs	Lower energy use, longer lifespan, better performance
Digital photography	Film cameras & film processing	Instant review, no film cost, easy sharing

Price/value substitution

New Product	Replaced Product	Why It Succeeded
Private-label grocery brands	National branded packaged goods	Comparable quality at lower price; retail shelf control
Refurbished enterprise IT hardware	New OEM hardware	Lower capex; acceptable reliability for many workloads
Budget airlines (Southwest, Ryanair)	Full-service carriers	Lower fares, point-to-point routes

Performance/feature substitution

New Product	Replaced Product	Why It Succeeded
Cordless power tools	Corded power tools	Mobility, convenience, battery improvements
Electric vehicles	Internal combustion engine vehicles (for some segments)	Lower running costs, performance, environmental positioning
Solid-state drives (SSD)	Hard disk drives (HDD) in laptops	Faster performance, lower power, durability

Business process / B2B substitution

New Product / Service	Replaced Product / Service	Why It Succeeded
Cloud computing (AWS, Azure)	On-premise servers	Elastic scaling, reduced capex, speed of deployment
SaaS CRM (Salesforce)	Installed CRM software	Lower IT overhead, constant updates, remote access
E-procurement platforms	Paper-based or email-based purchasing	Speed, transparency, auditability
VoIP telephony	Traditional PBX systems	Cost savings, integration with software platforms

Material & ingredient substitution

New Product	Replaced Product	Why It Succeeded
Aluminum cans	Glass bottles for beverages	Lighter, cheaper to transport, unbreakable
Synthetic rubber	Natural rubber	Stable supply, price stability, performance in varied conditions
Plant-based milks (soy, almond, oat)	Dairy milk (for some buyers)	Lactose-free, perceived health/environmental benefits