Wednesday, December 8, 2010

WiMAX Effort Did Not Bring Benefits As Great As Once Hoped, Says Sprint CEO

Sprint had hoped to build a bigger market lead by launching fourth-generation services in 2008. In a sense, it partly encouraged Verizon Wireless to launch its own 4G network sooner, and fro that reason 4G no longer appears to give Sprint an automatic marketing advantage.

Where Did the Lost DVD Buyers Go?

As important as DVDs have been, and remain, as a key part of the movie revenue ecosystem, studios no longer make as much from DVDs as they used to.

U.S. consumer spending on DVDs is down about 20 percent in 2010 from 2009, to $7.8 billion, according to media-tracking firm IHS Screen Digest. DVD spending is down 43 percent from its 2006 peak of $13.7 billion.

At the same time, consumer spending on video-on-demand services rose 17 percent in 2010 from 2009, to $1.4 billion, according to IHS. So that leaves a gap of up to $4.5 billion that simply seems to have disappeared.

One would have to conclude that consumers have found other ways to spend that money. Netflix could not have gotten it all. Netflix annual revenue might be somewhere in the $1.7 billion range.

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Typical Comcast User Consumes 2 Gbytes to 4 Gbytes a Month

The typical Comcast residential broadband user consumes 2 Gbytes to 4 GBytes of bandwidth per month.

So the reason ISPs are worried about the impact of increased online video consumption is that that level of usage is roughly equivalent to two or three or iTunes-sized movies per month, some argue.

A widespread shift to significant movie viewing online would disrupt usage patterns fairly quickly.

It isn't a customer's problem to figure out how the additional network capacity is added. That is the ISP's problem.

But if video has the potential to suddenly increase network demand, it could affect user experience even for users who don't watch video, since most of the ISP's facilities are shared.

One shouldn't expect any user to be happy about costs that roughly reflect usage, whether the product is water, electricity, gas or Internet access. But neither should any user suspect that any provider can, over the long term, simply ignore the impact of higher demand.

Google Shows First Chrome OS Laptops

One thing about an Internet-optimized laptop, such as the coming Chrome-powered devices: they won't do much if they aren't connected to the Internet. So look for Verizon-supported Chrome notebooks to be sold in the same way e-readers are: with built-in Internet capability.

To ensure that Chrome laptops always stay online, Google said it is working with Verizon Wireless to offer free wireless Internet connectivity, allowing users to send and receive up to 100 megabytes of data every month for two years. More robust Verizon data plans are available for purchase starting at $9.99 a month, Google said.

Visa Mobile Contactless Payments Solution Certified for Commercial Use

Visa says its mobile contactless payments system, enabled by DeviceFidelity's In2Pay microSD solution, is ready for deployment in the United States.

Following 18 months of technology development in partnership with Texas-based DeviceFidelity, and trials with leading financial institutions in the United States, Europe and Asia, Visa has tested and supports commercialization of In2Pay microSD for use with leading smart phones.

Smartphone models compatible for use with this landmark technology include the BlackBerry Bold 9650, the iPhone 4, the iPhone 3GS, iPhone 3G, and the Android based Samsung Vibrant Galaxy S.

Visa expects to add additional phone models for use with this technology, including phones based on the Symbian and Windows operating systems.

Verizon to Pay for iPhone Semi-Exclusivity?

Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu believes Verizon will pay extra as part of its deal to get the Apple iPhone to make sure that it and AT&T remain the only U.S. iPhone carriers for now.

Verizon apparently does not want iPhone, the hottest selling smartphone, available on T-Mobile USA or Sprint networks and may be willing to pay for exclusivity to itself and AT&T.

Verizon Sees 4G as Substitute for Premium Home Services

Verizon Communications Chief Executive Officer Ivan Seidenberg said its next-generation wireless network could become a "modest substitute" for other home-entertainment services such as traditional cable or Internet access.

Seidenberg, speaking from the experience of the U.S. telco industry, says the first reaction an industry's executives have to the notion that demand for their most-important legacy product is declining, is "denial." Sooner or later the trend becomes clear enough, though.

That there is little conclusive evidence about video cord cutting so far, it will manifest itself eventually, he thinks. While relatively newer technology such as wireless access is initially additive, it eventually starts to cut into discretionary spending for other services, particularly premium ones.

In fact, one might argue that Netflix streaming and DVD rental services clearly have cannibalized "premium cable" services such as Home Box Office, Starz or Showtime. Eventually, Seidenberg believes, that will extend more directly to traditional "basic cable" services as well.

Net neutrality plan will likely pass, former chairman Powell says

The U.S. Federal Communications Commission will likely approve a network neutrality proposal from its current chairman later this month with the support of many large broadband providers, Michael Powell, former chairman of the agency, believes.

Powell questioned the need for new net neutrality rules, but he suggested that long-term uncertainty over the proposed regulations has held back investment in the telecom industry. "At the end of the day, it's time to move," Powell said during an Internet Innovation Alliance forum.

Moving Beyond the Click

The Internet has been called "the most measurable medium," in part because of the industry’s reliance on click-through rates (CTRs) to measure online advertising. But while clicks can be measured, they do not necessarily matter, at least not to the extent that many might have believed.

There are several reasons why CTRs are not the appropriate measure of display advertising’s effectiveness. Perhaps most notably is the fact that the majority of Internet users do not click on display ads, and the percentage of users who do is continuing to decrease over time.

New Google Maps, Tablet

How Internet Interconnection Works, as a Business Matter

You can decide what it tells you about the interconnection dispute between Comcast and Level 3 Communications.

Manpower Forecast of 2011 Hiring Plans

Seasonally adjusted data for the United States indicates the most optimistic first-quarter hiring sentiment in three years; yet 73 percent of employers indicate they will keep staff levels unchanged.

While we're seeing positive signals in the data, only time will tell if we've reached the inflection point in the U.S. labor market recovery, Manpower says.

To be sure, by formal definitions, and by some, not all data, the U.S. economy is in recovery mode. Sooner or later, the U.S. economy always recovers, with or without external "help." But it is some measure of the tenor of the times that the "most optimistic" forecast has 73 percent of survey respondents not doing anything about investing in growth, at least to the extent that hiring people is required for growth.

All of that is important for all firms in the communications and entertainment businesses, and most consumers, of course.

Groupon Thinks It Will be Facebook; Will it Be Yahoo?

It remains to be seen whether Groupon, which rejected a Google takeover last week, rumored to be about $6 billion, has made a once-in-a-lifetime decision that financially emulates Facebook or Yahoo. In other words, only time will tell whether Groupon should have taken Google's offer, given the misgivings many financial analysts might have had about Google "overpaying" for the asset. That phrase tends to indicate a good deal for the seller, and Groupon has passed, in hopes of doing even better, as Facebook has, as an independent company.

The story doesn't always end that way. Yahoo co-founder Jerry Yang refused to sell to Microsoft Corp. for $47.5 billion in 2008. After rejecting the deal, Yahoo saw its valuation cut in half. In retrospect, Yahoo missed its chance, and won't get another that rich, ever.

At Facebook, founder Mark Zuckerberg turned down a $1 billion offer from Yahoo in 2006. Less than five years later, the social- networking service is valued at more than 40 times that.

Morgan Stanley Bullish on Google Instant on Mobile

Scott Devitt, Morgan Stanley analyst, thinks Google Instant, especially as used on mobile phones, is a big winner, and will drive revenue growth. If so, that also implies upside for search revenue and its possible effectiveness. Devitt also believes rapidly-growing e-commerce activity seen in the fourth quarter of 2010 also portends more strength for search advertising.

Google Instant, which makes searching more efficient by displaying search results as users type, could drive increased user loyalty and market share, Devitt believes. As a secondary benefit, it could also drive revenue upside.

Given the rapid growth in mobile usage and penetration, Google Instant on mobile may eventually prove more important to Google than its desktop search, as important as that has been.

Content Marketing A Growing Trend

Next year, marketers will need to rethink their approach to advertising and marketing and intensify their focus on creating magnetic content that will naturally attract consumers, rather than relying solely on the interruption model of advertising, which consumers are responding to less and less, says Geoff Ramsey, eMarketer CEO. " Think pull vs. push."

Magnetic content can include anything created on behalf of a brand: an ad, YouTube video, online game, Facebook page, Twitter promo or mobile app, ideally something that consumers might want to want to engage with and pass along to others.

This content entertains, amuses, informs, serves a function or satisfies a consumer need. It’s welcome instead of annoying or interruptive.

Yes, Follow the Data. Even if it Does Not Fit Your Agenda

When people argue we need to “follow the science” that should be true in all cases, not only in cases where the data fits one’s political pr...