Computing Always Has Caused Job Losses: Why Would AI be Different?

Since all prior instances of computing applied to work have eliminated some number of jobs, it only makes sense to predict that artificial intelligence also will do so. But among the questions is the issue of incidence: where the job losses will occur.

Historically, the introduction of computers and automation led to the reduction or elimination of many routine, repetitive, or data-driven job functions. And though we might be tempted to think the jobs were “blue collar,” most of the losses affected “white collar” workers in offices. 

AI seems destined to become a substitute for a wider range of “routine tasks” but also is ;going to affect more complex cognitive work as well. 

Job Title/Function	Cognitive Tasks	Risk from AI	AI Substitution
Data Analyst/Market Researcher	Data analysis, report generation, forecasting	AI excels at pattern recognition, data processing, and generating insights from large datasets	Automated data analytics, predictive modeling 1,2,3
Paralegal/Legal Assistant	Document review, legal research, drafting	AI can rapidly review documents, extract information, and draft legal texts	AI-powered document review, legal research bots 1,2,3
Content Writer/Copywriter	Article writing, editing, content creation	Generative AI can produce high-quality written content at scale	Automated content generation, editing tools 1,2,4
Entry-Level Accountant/Financial Analyst	Bookkeeping, financial reporting, auditing	AI automates repetitive calculations, reconciliations, and report generation	Automated bookkeeping, financial analysis 1,4,2
Customer Service Representative	Responding to inquiries, troubleshooting	AI chatbots and virtual assistants handle routine queries and support tasks	AI chatbots, automated helpdesks 2,4,3
Junior Software Developer	Writing/debugging code, code review	AI can generate, test, and debug code with increasing accuracy	AI code generation, bug detection 2,3
HR/Administrative Assistant	Scheduling, resume screening, workflow management	AI automates scheduling, candidate screening, and routine admin tasks	Automated scheduling, resume parsing 2,4
Middle Manager (Routine Tasks)	Report consolidation, performance tracking	AI can aggregate data, generate reports, and monitor KPIs	Automated  reporting, dashboarding 5,4
Translator	Language translation, localization	AI models can translate text and speech across languages with high accuracy	Machine translation, localization tools 6,7
Insurance Underwriter	Risk assessment, policy review	AI can analyze risk factors and automate policy decisions	Automated risk analysis, policy generation 4

Routine, structured cognitive tasks are most vulnerable, especially those involving data processing, document review, and standardized content creation. We might already guess that entry-level and support roles in law, finance, marketing, and administration face the highest risk.

Jobs requiring human judgment,  creativity or complex interpersonal skills are less exposed, but even these may see significant transformation as AI tools become more sophisticated.

The history of applied computerization also set that pattern.

Job Function	Technology	Impact/Change	Era	Source(s)
Typis, /Secretary	Word Processing, PCs	Drastic reduction; executives self-type documents	1980s–1990s	1,3
Data Entry Clerk	Databases, Automation	Largely automated; fewer manual data entry roles	1980s–2000s	2,6
Bookkeeper, Payroll Clerk	Accounting Software	Routine tasks automated; fewer clerical jobs	1980s–2000s	4,5,1,3
Switchboard Operator	Digital Telephony	Obsolete; replaced by automated systems	1970s–1980s	2,3
Travel Agent	Online Booking Platforms	Reduced demand; self-service travel arrangements	1990s–2000s	4,6
Paralega, /Legal Assistant	AI Document Review	AI handles research, document review	2020s–	6,10
Financial Analyst, Trader	AI, Algorithmic Trading	Automated analysis and trading	2010s–	7,8,6
Customer Service Rep	Chatbots, AI Assistants	AI handles routine inquiries	2010s–	1,11,2
Content Writer, Editor	Generative AI	AI drafts articles, reduces junior writing roles	2020s–	7,6,10
Junior Software Developer	AI Code Generation	AI writes/debugs code, reducing entry-level roles	2020s–	9,10

How Long Before Consumers Rebel Against Higher Electricity Rates Driven by Data Center Consumption?

It has been a couple of decades since the “rate base” was a key driver of revenues for U.S. telcos, in large part because the services affected by the rate base have declined so much (voice services). 

But the rate base is going to continue to affect consumer electricity prices for the foreseeable future, as additional power generation and transmission capacity is built to support higher demand for power to support data centers and artificial intelligence operations. 

In some states, such as Virginia, it is possible that rates could rise substantially, as much as 70 percent from current levels. California and Texas are additional states where price hikes could be higher.  

But those sorts of shocks are virtually certain to raise calls for reform of the rate base rules, as it is going to be said, with good reason, that consumers are subsidizing the operations of data center owners and operators. 

But that has been a rare approach. Past rate base reforms have rarely directly targeted large customer-driven infrastructure costs when allocating costs among customer classes. 

Traditionally, the costs of new infrastructure investments (generation, transmission, or distribution) have been spread across all ratepayers through general rates, regardless of which customer category caused the need for the investment.

Many observers and electricity customers will not be aware of such precedents, and are certain to be shocked by the growing cost of electricity. 

The rate base is the total value of a utility’s assets (power plants, transmission lines, and distribution infrastructure) used to provide service to customers, and forms the basis for setting the rates that utilities can charge their customers.

So the basic formula for setting consumer prices is the rate base times the allowed rate of return) plus operating expenses, with a return for investors as well, as a practical matter. 

Data centers matter because the common costs of new generation capacity and transmission can be charged, and will be charged, to all customers. 

If data centers currently account for four percent to five percent  of U.S. electricity consumption, but grow to 12 percent  by 2028, and current rate base rules do not change, that cost will be borne by all ratepayers.

What's a "Soul Surfer?"

People keep suggesting I do more writing that is not technology related, and one suggested I ponder the concept of "soul surfing " and how styles of waveriding can be related to personality. Basically, the idea is that surfing styles might be related to a person's basic orientation to life. 

So keep in mind the term developed at a time when surfing began to become commercialized; when Eastern religions and mysticism were popular among young people. If we can generalize meaningfully, it is a philosophical approach to wave riding that emphasizes the spirituality of surfing. 

Some also use the term to describe a non-commercial approach to wave riding. Others might note the vibe of authenticity, spiritual connection with nature, and rejection of materialism. Some of that is overblown. As with all teenagers, we were certain our ideas were profound, our ideals sustainable, our understandings deep. None of us likely escapes the danger of posturing. 

For me it was not so much any of that as an approach to becoming one with a particular wave; flowing with it; being smooth and complementary. This was before short boards, so the idea of riding a wave like one skateboards was physically impossible. 

So "ripping the wave" or using it as an energy platform for acrobatics wasn't really possible, as it now is. 

To be sure, one tries to use the physics of a short board to do things on waves that were not possible on longboards, which were heavy, ponderous, anything but light on a wave. 

The point is that some of us were probably more oriented to a spiritual connection with the ocean, the energy forms we call waves, the union with the energy form, perhaps what Buddhists call mindfulness. 

Others might have related to it more as any sport: with higher degrees of skill being the objective. All surfers in competitions have to approach it this way. 

Even if some might argue "we are all soul surfers" to some extent, soul surfers, who prioritize harmony and connection with the wave, might have a more receptive, intuitive approach to life. 

These individuals might tend to read situations carefully, adapting their energy to match what's required rather than imposing their will. In relationships, they're likely the ones who listen deeply before speaking, who find rhythm in conversations rather than dominating them. 

Professionally, they might excel in roles requiring empathy, collaboration, or creative problem-solving where success comes from understanding and working with existing dynamics rather than forcing change.

Power surfers, with their explosive maneuvers and aerial acrobatics, typically demonstrate a more assertive, goal-oriented personality. And they also do so only on short boards, which enable such maneuvers. 

They might see waves as platforms for expression and achievement. This might reflect an approach to life's challenges featuring confidence and determination, perhaps leading to thriving in competitive environments or leadership roles. 

They're the ones who might push boundaries in their careers, take calculated risks, and view obstacles as opportunities to demonstrate their capabilities.

Technical surfers who focus on precision and form might reflect methodical, detail-oriented personalities that might show up in their surfing styles as well. 

Without pushing the analogy too much, it might be reasonable enough to assume a surfing style could be related to other fundamentals of personality.