But Nokia Says No...

The problem with market research is that findings can vary wildly from study to study. Nokia, for example, provides smartphone usage data that flatly contradicts other study findings. According to Nokia, messagng and voice drive the actual usage, not audio and video.

Audio, Video Drive Smartphone Use

Not email access, at least according to this data from ICM Research of users in seven countries.

Watch Wikipedia

Here's a trend you might not have expected. Wikipedia is one of the four most popular social networking sites, even though it is not of the "hang out with your friends or community" sort. In fact, you probably are among the users (including this one) that has come to expect and rely on the quality of most of the information available on Wikipedia, as well as the timeliness of the updating. If you had asked me whether so many human beings would help create a service so useful and so good, just because they wanted to help, I'd have said "no way." At least some times, what Web 2.0 proponents claim is true, is true. So in chatting with David Beckemeyer, PhoneGnome CEO, why would it not be able to create some sort of user research outfit (one hesitates to use the word "company") that essentially is a wiki, perhaps a private wiki for some purposes, and a public wiki for others? My point is that if IP-enabled applications and services are changing everything in communications and media, and changing many things in the learning and playing arenas, why is there not reason to believe it can change market research and analysis as well?

Fiber To Home Forecast

18 million homes by 2011, say researchers at Parks Associates. Normally I am more skeptical to the downside when evaluating nearly any sort of market forecast. This one, though, seems too cautious to me. We shall see.

Feature Creep: We're Doing Something Wrong

Anybody familiar with the vast array of features available on a Class 5 switch or a private branch exchange can tell you that most buyers of such platforms never deploy most of the features. Of the features deployed, most end users never use them. The same appears to be true even of the more restricted features available on mobile phones. Most cell phone customers don't use the camera, email, or gaming options offered by their wireless providers, according a survey by JD Power and Associates. Most are satisfied when they can simply place a call efficiently.

Survey respondents said they use the speakerphone option more than any other, but only 26 per cent of respondents said they used this function. Only 19 per cent of people say they use the camera on their mobile and a mere 16 per cent opt to play games. True, behavior is changing. But after decades of exposure, most end users use but a handful of features available from their advanced phone switches. There's a lesson there.

iPhone Demand: Watch Behavior

Because what people are saying they might suggests no clear trend. It is clear that Demand for music enabled phones is growing. But iPod demand is distinct from phone demand. And iPhone prices are an issue. But the potential churn away from other carriers to at&t could be substantial.

More than 33% of all wireless phones now are music enabled, and market researcher Compete found music phones made up over 53% of all December cellphone shopping hits it tracked. There were just over 3 million total music phone shoppers in December, and almost as many iPod shoppers, with 2.7 million consumers evaluating iPods online.

But the market for combination iPod and cellphone devices isn't clear. Compete found that only 5% of all cellphone shoppers also evaluated an iPod in December, and only 3% viewed both a music phone and an iPod.

Of course, price is an issue. Even among the diehard segment of iPod shoppers who said they are very likely to buy an iPhone, only 6% said they would pay over $400. There's little question that the iPhone has achieved near instant name recognition, however.

A week after the historic announcement of the iPhone, Compete found that75% of iPod shoppers had already heard of the iPhone, and a healthy 20% said they would postpone their next cellphone purchase to wait for it. 20% also said they would postpone their next music player purchase.

The good news for Cingular is that 12% of iPod shoppers said they would be very likely to switch carriers to get the iPhone. The bad news is that of the people who are not willing to switch, over 30% cite Cingular’s service plan pricing, and another 35% cite Cingular’s coverage.

Of the people not likely to switch, almost 40% said they had no interest in purchasing a combination music player and phone, and over 55% said their current carrier has cellphones that meet their needs. And price will be a hurdle. Consumer oriented smartphones generally have sold in large volumes at a price point of about $200.

Still, we always have found that it makes more sense to pay attention to what people actually do, than to what they say they will do. And we'll have to wait six months to see what happens when iPhones actually go on sale.

Google, Avaya Aim at Enterprise

Avaya is supporting and joining the Google Enterprise Professional program to develop new capabilities for small businesses around Google's enterprise products. Under terms of the agreement, Avaya will develop, market and support offers that integrate Avaya's advanced communications solutions for small businesses with the new Google Apps Premier Edition, the subscription services solution for email, instant messaging, calendar and Web publishing services.

Examples of the open standards-based capabilities on which the solutions will focus include: enabling subscribers to easily share contact information, presence information and alerts; enabling a single in-box for voice mail, email, instant messages and fax messages; and enabling web calling over the Google Talk instant messaging service network. The companies' collaborative efforts will initially focus on Avaya IP Office, Avaya’s flagship IP telephony communications solution for small and mid-size businesses, with availability planned for fall 2007. Further solutions are expected to continue the emphasis on productivity-enhancing and cost-cutting capabilities for small and mid-sized companies.

The first integrated solution, which Avaya expects to deliver later this year, will be sold through Avaya's global network of resellers and distributors, providing customers with a single point of contact for sales, installation and support.

According to Google, Google Apps has been used until now by more than 100,000 small businesses and hundreds of universities. But not just small businesses.

“So much of business now relies on people being able to communicate and collaborate effectively,” says Gregory Simpson, CTO for General Electric Company. “GE is interested in evaluating Google Apps for the easy access it provides to a suite of web applications, and the way these applications can help people work together. Given its consumer experience, Google has a natural advantage in understanding how people interact together over the web.”