Clearwire Might Use LTE

Clearwire CEO Benjamin Wolff says the company would consider using Long Term Evolution, the fourth-generation platform global mobile providers have settled on as their preferred 4G network. Wolff says that if LTE becomes a dominant wireless technology, Clearwire would consider using the technology in addition to WiMax.

The issue is not "if" LTE becomes a dominant technology, but probably only "when." That suggests LTE is in Clearwire's future, one way or the other. That isn't to say Clearwire would abandon WiMAX completely, or that other providers would. Such a move by Clearwire might well relegate WiMAX to "niche" status in the U.S. market, though.

Hawaiian Telcom Declares Bankruptcy

Carlyle Group's $1.65 billion bet on Hawaiian Telecom has gone bust. When the 2004 purchase from Verizon Communications was announced, Carlyle Group executive and former Federal Communications Commission Chairman Bill Kennard called it an "exciting opportunity" that was expected to add many new jobs, according to the Washington Post.

The bankruptcy filing by an incumbent local exchange carrier is extremely rare.

Hawaiian Telcom has about $1 billion in debt and missed $26 million in interest payments last month. It had been trying to work out a debt-restructuring plan with its creditors but apparently was unable to do so.

Of its current $1 billion in debt, about $574.6 million is in bank loans and $500 million is in bonds.

It isn't clear yet whether there will be other similar problems popping up. It might happen that a major proposed private equity buyout fails to occur, though.

Bell Canada Enterprises and the Ontario Teachers Pension Plan, which is leading a BCE buyout plan along with three U.S.-based private equity firms, are haggling over the deal's $1.2 billion break-up fee, according to a report in the Toronto Globe and Mail.

The acquisition, valued at around $35 billion recently, had been expected to close by Dec. 11, but might now be in question after independent valuation firm KPMG advised that market conditions and other factors would make it unable to render a solvency opinion on the deal.

Ease of Use Still a Problem

Technology ease of use remains a problem, according to a new survey conducted by the Pew Research Center's Internet & American Life Project. Nearly half (48 percent) of adults who use the Internet or have a cell phone say they usually need someone else to set up a new device up for them or show them how to use it. And many users of various devices and services also encounter breakdowns from time to time.

Some 44 percent of those with home Internet access say their connection failed to work properly for them at some time in the previous 12 months. About 39 percent of those with desktop or laptop computers have had their machines not work properly at some time in the previous 12 months as well, says John Horrigan, Pew Center associate director.

About 29 percent of cell phone users and 26 percent of smart phone usres say their device failed to work properly at some time in the previous year.

Some 15 percent of those experiencing problems with PCs, mobiles, Internet access or smart phones said they were unable to fix the problem. About 38 percent of users with failed technology contacted user support for help while 28 percent say they were able to fix the problems themselves. Some 15 percent fixed the problem with help from friends or family. About two percent found help online.

Voice a Broadband Killer App?

There is much truth to the notion that "email was the killer app for dial-up." There may also be some truth to the notion that "voice is the killer app for broadband." At least that seems to be a developing theme for SureWest Communications. 

SureWest benefits by selling more bundled triple-play services with the offering, thereby enhancing overall subscriber margins. "We have converted nearly 2,900 customers from the telecom voice product to the new broadband Voice over IP service since its launch earlier this year," he says. "And of those converted customers, over 20 percent added SureWest Internet with their phone service, and over 10 percent added TV."

In other words, VoIP has driven buying of other key services as well, especially broadband Internet access and IPTV. SureWest broadband residential voice RGUs increased seven percent year-over-year and five percent sequentially. In the original Sacramento region, voice RGU growth was 18 percent year-over-year and 13 percent sequentially.

U.S. Mobile Data Prospects in 2009

The U.S. wireless data market grew 7.3 percent sequentially in the third quarter 2008 and 37.5 percent year over year to reach $8.8 billion in data services revenues. For first nine months, mobile data revenues of $24.5 billion were equal to the revenues generated for all of 2007. 

The big question is what happens in the fourth quarter and after, as it appears handset upgrades and sales, for example, already are slowing. Some observers think wireless data service revenes will hold up. Analyst Chetan Sharma, for example, notes that text messaging represents 40 percent of all data revenues, and that the texting habit is unlikely to change. 

In the third quarter, U.S. messaging volumes grew 38 percent while messaging revenues grew six percent. Use of wireless dongles and cards for mobile PC access has been a big driver of revenue of late, and Sharma thinks that could an area of softness though, for the simple reason that many former users will fall victim to layoffs, while managements might be less generous in providing such technology to their remaining employees.

Still, it is conceivable that mobile data growth in the U.S. market will flatten out in 2009, says Sharma. "If the job loss rate increases substantially, more than it has been in the third quarter and into the fourth quarter, we might, just might, start to see flattening of data revenues in the first quarter of 2009 and gradual decline over the course of the year," says Sharma. 

Mobile providers probably can counteract economic issues by emphasizing sales of sub-$200 smart phones bundled with data plans, Charma says. To the extent there is an economic effect, it is likely to be on average revenue per user, Sharma suggests. 

That likely will be the case for wired network providers as well, as price and bundle promotions increase.

Operators in Europe have already started to feel the pinch, Sharma says. Vodafone and Telefonica recently have seen a decline in overall revenues. Though overall service revenues declined 1.7 percent, data revenues grew 30 percent. That suggests the importance of data plan, handset and bundling programs. 

100 Mbps Inevitable; Only Question is Price

NTT long has been the "gold standard" for residential bandwidth. But Verizon has closed the gap, suggesting that 100 Mbps is destined to become a common access speed.

The issue is how long it might take before such speeds are affordable.

To be sure, most of that bandwidth is needed for one simple reason: entertainment video. In its own analysis, Verizon has estimated that current and future needs for virtually all other applications top out at about 15 Mbps symmetrical bandwidth.

Beyond that, it is network-hosted applications and new forms of video that require higher bandwidth. Since it delivers linear video using a separate wavelength, Verizon thinks it really only needs about 15 Mbps downstream to support on-demand video.

But there's little question what happens if three-dimensional TV is commercialized. Then 75 Mbps might be required to deliver one stream.

88% of Internet Users Will Be Watching Online Video by 2013

By 2013, more than 69 percent of online video ad revenue will be associated with long-form video. By that point, about 88 percent of all Internet users will be watching online video as well, eMarketer now projects.

As good as that will be for content owners, it is unclear whether the trend will be good, bad or neutral for Internet access providers. Much depends on how involved ISPs are in the revenue value chain.