When financial commentators compile lists of "potential black swans," they misunderstand the concept. As explained by Taleb Nasim, a “black swan event” is an extremely rare, unpredictable occurrence that has a massive, widespread impact and is often rationalized as being preventable only in hindsight.
The theory was popularized by author, statistician, and former Wall Street trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2007 book, The Black Swan.
The key concept is “unpredictable.” But in cautioning about potential black swan events, commentators are essentially saying "here are the things we can't anticipate that we're now anticipating."
A true black swan isn't just unlikely. It is outside our prevailing model of reality.
This suggests the concept has been domesticated into meaning merely "really bad thing we hope won't happen."
And yet this “domestication” of ideas, theories or principles happens all the time. By definition, we can’t "warn" about black swans because they are, by definition, unforeseeable.
But the watering down or domestication of any principle, theorem or idea seems to be irresistible.
Original Concept | Original Meaning | How It Gets Misapplied |
Occam's Razor | Among competing hypotheses with equal explanatory power, prefer the one with fewer assumptions | Used to dismiss complex explanations simply because they're complex, or to justify intellectual laziness ("the simplest answer is usually right") |
Gaslighting | A systematic psychological manipulation tactic to make someone doubt their own sanity and perception of reality | Now applied to any disagreement, misremembering, or different perspective ("You're gaslighting me by saying that didn't happen!") |
Kafka-esque | The nightmarish absurdity of faceless bureaucracy stripping individuals of agency and meaning | Used to describe any mildly frustrating paperwork or administrative delay |
Orwellian | Totalitarian manipulation of language and reality to control thought itself | Applied to any government action someone dislikes, any surveillance, or even just opposing political views |
Strawman Fallacy | Misrepresenting someone's actual argument to make it easier to attack | Now weaponized to shut down any paraphrasing or summary ("That's a strawman!") even when it accurately captures the position |
Cognitive Dissonance | The psychological discomfort of holding contradictory beliefs simultaneously, which motivates attitude change | Used as a gotcha accusation meaning "you're being hypocritical" without the internal discomfort component |
Dunning-Kruger Effect | The least competent people lack the metacognitive ability to recognize their incompetence | Simplified to "stupid people think they're smart" and used as a general- purpose insult, often by people demonstrating the effect themselves |
Narcissism/Narcissistic Personality Disorder | A specific clinical personality disorder involving grandiosity, lack of empathy, and fragile self- esteem | Applied casually to anyone who seems selfish, takes selfies, or displays confidence |
Correlation vs. Causation | Statistical correlation between variables doesn't prove one causes the other | Used reflexively to dismiss any suggested causal relationship, even well-supported ones, as if correlation can never suggest causation |
Schrödinger's Cat | A thought experiment about quantum superposition and measurement problems in quantum mechanics | Misused to mean "we don't know the answer until we check" about any unknown situation |
The Butterfly Effect | Sensitive dependence on initial conditions in chaotic systems | Watered down to "everything affects everything" or used to justify magical thinking about tiny actions having massive predetermined effects |
Stockholm Syndrome | Psychological response where hostages develop positive feelings toward captors as a survival mechanism | Applied to any situation where someone defends an institution or person that others think is harming them |
Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle | Fundamental quantum limitation on simultaneously measuring position and momentum | Misapplied to mean "observing something changes it" in any context, or that all knowledge is inherently uncertain |
Gaslighting (worth repeating) | Deliberate, systematic psychological abuse to make victims question reality | Reduced to mean "lying," "disagreeing," or "remembering differently" |
Devil's Advocate | Formally arguing against a position to test its strength, even if you agree with it | Now means "let me say something offensive without consequences" or "I'm about to be contrarian for attention" |
Virtue Signaling | Publicly expressing opinions to demonstrate moral superiority without genuine commitment | Extended to dismiss any public expression of values, making authentic moral discourse impossible |
Paradigm Shift (Kuhn) | Fundamental transformation in scientific worldview that makes old and new frameworks incommensurable | Applied to any minor change in approach or trending topic ("a paradigm shift in coffee brewing") |
Thought Experiment | Rigorous hypothetical scenarios designed to isolate variables and test philosophical principles | Used for any random "what if" speculation without intellectual rigor |
Echo Chamber | Self-reinforcing information environments that completely exclude contrary views | Applied to any community of people who largely agree, even ones that regularly engage with outside perspectives |
Moving the Goalposts | Changing standards of evidence after they've been met to avoid conceding a point | Invoked whenever someone refines or adds nuance to an argument during discussion |
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