Mobile Broadband Supplemental, But High Risk of Substitution

A huge explosion in mobile broadband use in Europe over the next five years largely will be driven by consumers, and largely will complement, not supplant, wired broadband connections, predict researchers at Analysys Mason.

That said, a separate forecast by Informa Telecoms & Media suggests the potential for broadband substitution will remain high.

Analysys Mason projects148 million mobile broadband connections in Europe by 2014, when they will account for almost half of all broadband connections in the region.

The potential for fixed-line voice substitution also will remain high. About 40 percent of total mobile traffic was generated in the home environment in 2007, says Informa Telecoms & Media.

By 2013 it is expected to reach 58 percent, with about eight percent of total mobile traffic offloaded to fixed broadband. In 2008, the home environment likewise represented more than 43 percent of total mobile data traffic and will climb to 60 percent by 2013.

That's the danger for fixed services providers, particularly in single-person households, households of non-related persons and households where every person in the household above a certain age has a mobile.

Mobile use at home will represent about 40 percent of total mobile usage, while use at work will represent 30 percent of usage, with nine percent of calls initiated while users are moving. About 21 percent of calls will be generated from other public environments.

"In the same way that voice traffic has moved from old fixed line telephony service PSTN to mobile, there is reason to believe that a significant percentage of Internet traffic generation will move away from fixed personal computers to mobile devices including mobile handsets, mobile Internet devices (MIDs) and connected notebooks," says Malik Saadi, Informa principal analyst.

As more casual users adopt mobile broadband, they typically will do so as a complement to tethered broadband, usually opting for prepaid subscriptions rather than monthly contracts, Analysys Mason forecasts. Prepaid subscriptions will account for 59 percent of mobile broadband connections in 2014, up from eight percent in 2008.

New customers will tend to behave differently from early adopters and users who have substituted wireless for wired connections, many observers believe. Most significantly, use will be casual. So, at some point, continued growth of mobile broadband in the U.S. market likewise will require charging mechanisms better suited to casual users, who will not be inclined to add substantial fixed-fee subscriptions when their anticipated usage is relatively light.

T-Mobile Outage: "All Markets West of Mississippi River"

T-Mobile has a  BlackBerry email services outage in "all markets west of the Mississippi River," I am told by tech support. Sunday, Feb. 15, about noonish Mountain time.....

Apparently there also was a Feb. 3, 2009 outage on a more-localized basis on the AT&T network in  Houston, New York, New Jersey and Baltimore/Washington D.C. areas.

There are some reports T-Mobile and possibly some Sprint BlackBerry users had the same issue on Feb. 3, 2009 as well. Undoubtedly there will be finger-pointing, but it would seem to be a RIM issue if multiple networks had outages at the same time. 

58% of Mobile Use In-Home by 2013

About 40 percent of total mobile traffic generated in the home environment  in 2007, says Informa Telecoms & Media. By 2013 it is expected to reach 58 percent, with about eight percent of total mobile traffic offloaded to fixed broadband.

In 2008, the home environment likewise represented more than 43 percent of total mobile data traffic and will climb to 60 percent by 2013.

Mobile voice minutes of use in the home environment represented about 42 percent of total mobile voice traffic by the end of 2008. Mobile voice usage at home will gradually increase to reach 49 percent by 2013.

Mobile use at work will represent 30 percent of usage, with nine percent of calls initiated while users are moving. About 21 percent of calls will be generated from other public environments.

"In the same way that voice traffic has moved from old fixed line telephony service PSTN to mobile, there is reason to believe that a significant percentage of Internet traffic generation will move away from fixed personal computers to mobile devices including mobile handsets, mobile Internet devices (MIDs) and connected notebooks," says Malik Saadi, Informa principal analyst

Wireless and Broadband Grow, Wireline Shrinks, Ofcom Says

Fixed-line call volume and access revenues fell by two percent during the third quarter, the U.K. Office of Communications now reports. Total residential call volumes in the third quarter of 2008 were nine percent lower than in the third quarter 2007, while total business call volumes fell by five percent over the same period. The total number of fixed lines fell by 36,000 to 33.5 million during the quarter as well.

The number of residential and small or medium business broadband connections increased by 322,000 during the quarter to 16.9 million.

Total mobile revenue for the four largest mobile operators increased by 1.5 percent, quarter over quarter, Ofcom reports. Revenue from calls and other charges grew by 2.3 percent, though call volume declined by 0.05 percent, quarter over quarter.

Roaming call volumes increased by 11 percent year over year. The number of outgoing international minutes grew by 14 percent over the same period.

Core Switches on Blade Servers: Nokia Siemens

Core network infrastructure is moving along a path that will have software functions running on standardized hardware, such as blade servers. That's quite a change from a world where you could tell the difference between major brands of Class 5 switches just by looking at them.

So note that Nokia Siemens Networks now has a new strategy focusing on hardware-independent solutions for core networks. Nokia Siemens Networks has introduced a new, open hardware architecture, where Nokia Siemens software runs on off-the-shelf hardware blades.

The long-term goal for the strategy is to provide an open, multi-application, hardware-independent platform, where the same open hardware platform can be used for a variety of different network elements.

The switch means the MSC Server mobile softswitch, which is currently implemented on the Nokia Siemens Networks DX 200 hardware platform, will run on open and standard blade servers.

“This is the beginning of a major shift in the way we design our core network products,” says Michael Clever, Head of Next Generation Voice and Multimedia, Nokia Siemens Networks. “The future of control servers clearly belongs to pure software solutions that give network operators more choices to meet their hardware requirements.

Operating on blade servers should allow for smaller equipment footprint and smaller power draw than the proprietary approach.

The open hardware approach is already being applied to other Nokia Siemens Networks core network “control plane” applications, such as IP Multimedia Subsystem and the hiQ VoIP application server, which then can be combined with the MSS application.

Tweet, Tweet and More Tweet

As of December 2008, 11 percent of online American adults said they used a service like Twitter or another service that allowed them to share updates about themselves or to see the updates of others, say researchers at the Pew Internet & American Life Project.

Just a few weeks earlier, in November 2008, nine percent of Internet users used Twitter or updated their status online and in May of 2008, six percent of Internet users responded yes to a slightly different question, where users were asked if they used “Twitter or another ‘microblogging’ service to share updates about themselves or to see updates about others.”

Good thing the company just raised $35 million more in investment capital. It still is growing really fast.

Small Business Demand Remains Stable

Small businesses (zero to 500 employees) represent 99.7 percent of all firms, employ about half of all private sector employees, pay nearly 45 percent of total U.S. private payrolls and have generated 60 to 80 percent of net new jobs annually over the last decade, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce.

It's no surprise that smaller businesses therefore represent much of the underlying demand for communications and information technology purchases as well.

It's a darn-near sure thing that such businesses will represent the only new net private sector jobs for the balance of the year. So it is noteworthy that small businesses were able to add new employees in January 2009, according to actual payroll processed by Surepayroll, which handles payroll data for more than 20,000 small businesses.

There was a 0.3 percent increase in the average small business size between the December 2008 and January 2009 periods, meaning that the average small business grew in size in January.

Hiring growth has been relatively flat of late, with the last five months all being in the 0.2% to 0.3% range. But small businesses added employees every month of 2008, the SurePayroll data shows.

Of course, other data is not so comforting, if lethargic job growth can be called "comforting." A Gallup Poll survey suggests that small-business owners are cutting jobs. About 11 percent of respondents say they have increased the number of jobs at their companies over the past 12 months while 27 percent say they have decreased them.

On average small businesses are still creating more jobs than they are destroying, SurePayroll says. And some of the resilence can be explained by greater reliance on outsourced contractors. In fact, January saw contractors representing 3.78 percent of total payrolls, the highest level SurePayroll ever has seen.

But there are warning signs on the small company start-up front, however, which logically is a result of tight credit conditions.

"In prior recessions, small businesses have ended up being net job creators," SurePayroll says. "This is not likely to happen in this recession because fewer companies are being formed."

Perhaps the only good news here for providers of communication services is that potential small business demand remains a bit of a bright spot.