Blockbuster Defies Expectations

The conventional wisdom is that Blockbuster's business model is the equivalent of "toast." In fact, fears of an impending bankruptcy filing caused shares to fall as much as 86 percent early in March, as a result. 

But Blockbuster says domestic same-store sales increased 4.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, representing a 5.3 percent increase when compared to a decline of 0.9 percent in the same period in 2007. 

The increase in same-store sales was comprised of a 2.6 percent decrease in domestic same-store rental comparables and a 36.5 percent increase in domestic same-store retail comparables, which was largely driven by increased sales of games, game merchandise and consumer electronics.

For the full year of 2008, Blockbuster achieved a 6.4 percent increase in domestic same-store sales, compared to a decrease of 6.9 percent in 2007. The 2008 domestic same-store comparables included a 1.2 percent increase in domestic same-store rental comparables and a 37.4 percent increase in domestic same-store retail comparables.

Companies and executives frequently manage to outperform conventional wisdom, and it appears Blockbuster has done so. 

Mobiles are Disruptive to Ad Business

Media and advertising professionals say the pullback of ad dollars and mobile devices becoming personal computers are the most disruptive forces in media today, according to a recent survey by KPMG LLP, the U.S. audit, tax and advisory firm. With media time and spending seen moving away from traditional channels, attention to social media and mobile consumption is expected to increase.

In polling more than 200 media, marketing and advertising executives, KPMG found that 49 percent of respondents indicated that the pullback of advertising dollars is the most disruptive force in media today, followed closely by mobile devices becoming personal computers (40 percent).

The KPMG survey also found that some 75 percent of executives predict that advertisers will move more than a quarter of media time and spending away from traditional channels in the next five years, while social networks and mobile marketing are expected to see increased activity.

While the marketing and branding power of social networking is expected to be increasingly harnessed in the future, 61 percent of executives indicate that fewer than 30 percent of ad agencies have a plan in place to leverage the medium for their clients.

A Humorous Look at Soccer

In my case, something more true of my grandkids than my kids, who preferred football, track and wrestling. Then again, I only have one daughter and three sons, and they managed to get to high school before the soccer craze hit. 

The grandkids have tons of "gold medals" hanging on their bedroom walls, many earned for seasons where no scores were kept and no goalies played. 

Mobile Marketing Evolution: A Prediction

There's one consistent pattern I have noticed for decades in the telecom business, and I'd be willing to bet the same pattern plays out in the mobile marketing business as well. New things start out when pioneers, typically exemplified by new companies, start making a business of the new innovations. 

As the new practices, channels, services and applications start to become mainstream, larger and established players move in and ultimately represent most of the sales volume. We saw that in the mobile business, in digital subscriber line, VoIP, the dial-up Internet access business, content distribution networks and cable TV, for example.

The big exception to this general rule is that a few of the upstarts will so dominate new parts of the ecosystem that they themselves will become the leaders. Google and Amazon come to mind. Still, over the long term, even large assets of this sort might ultimately be absorbed by other contestants in the ecosystem. 

In the mobile advertising business, that means specialists will prove the channel works. Later, though, the full-service agencies will simply incorporate mobile channels within their larger practices. We are quite some way from that sort of consolidation, however. Right now, it's a specialist's game. 

The Outcome Might be Inescapable, But Plan on 20 Years

If the newspaper and magazine business model increasingly is "toast," is TV next? You will find no shortage of observers who say the answer is "yes;" that over time, more content will shift to some Internet-delivered modality. 

It might also be worth keeping in mind that transitions of this sort typically take decades. As a journalism graduate student I worked on a Gannett-funded project on the future of journalism education as electronic forms of media became more important. Keep in mind, the World Wide Web had not yet been invented at the time we conducted that exercise. 

I hate to admit it, but that was nearly 30 years ago. Only this year have we seen massive signs that the transition is hitting print media on a permanent basis. 

So the direction might be there, but the transition will take far longer than most expect. In fact, most technology-driven displacements of this sort take longer than most observers expect. If the Internet TV displacement follows the typical curve, progress will be far more stubborn than people expect, in the early years. And "early years" can last for decades. Once the inflection point is hit, change will occur faster than people expect, though.

For those of us who have been anticipating a major shift to electronic forms of all media for quite some time, it has taken quite a long time to get here. Now that we have, watch out. The structural change now will occur far more rapidly than anybody suspects. 

That you are reading this on a blog is but one example. 

I do not think it will take 30 years for stunning change to occur in the packaged, linear video business. But neither do I think anything other than relatively incremental changes in revenue volume will occur in the near term, if only because technology substitution, and the changes in industry structure technology enables, take time to unfold.

I do believe the inflection point for print media already has been reached, and do expect massive changes on a scale and pace most practitioners are not expecting. That is one reason why I began to shift gears two years ago. Well, maybe shifting gears is too incremental an analogy.  Jumping ship is the better, if imperfect, analogy. 

Somehow, I still find myself doing "print" content. But it is not the future. 

A similar inflection point for mainstream replacement of multi-channel video services by Internet replacements is far off, yet, even though we now can see the change coming. It might be inevitable or inescapable. It will not be transformative for some time to come, though. Think decades, not years. History suggests that is the right time frame.

Help! We Need Unified Communications

Communications barriers and latencies can cost small and medium businesses up to 40 percent of their productive time, according to a Siemens-sponsored global study suggests.

On average, 70 percent of of small and medium business execitives recently surveyed say they spend 17.5 hours each week addressing the pain points caused by communications barriers and latencies, according to a global study sponsored by Siemens Enterprise Communications and conducted by SIS International Research.

Researchers at SIS International Research determined that the time spent per week dealing with communications issues was more than 50 percent higher in companies with more than 20 workers.

Companies of 100 employees could be losing more than $500,000 each year by not addressing their employees’ most painful communications issues, considering only "hard costs."

The top five pain points are inefficient coordination; waiting for information; unwanted communications; customer complaints; and barriers to communication.

Premium Video Not Conforming to Historical Patterns?

In past recessions cable operators and other multi-channel video suppliers have seen a dip in growth rates for premium services such as HBO, Showtime or Starz. That might not be happening this time. Or at least the impact has not yet been seen.

At the same time, Netflix growth seems to have accelerated as well.

Perhaps consumers will behave differently this recession than they have in the past, and in ways that are good for video providers. Better promotion from more providers or a change in the value of in-home entertainment might be explanations.

So far, this is a bit of a surprise to the upside.