Gartner Analyst Skeptical About Mobile Payments

David Furlonger, Gartner's senior analyst for the financial sector, is skeptical about mobile banking applications and near field communication (NFC) payment systems.

He rightly notes that Australian banks have struggled to profit from such ventures and that, globally, most users are just checking account balances, which might positively affect operating costs or improve customer satisfaction, but which do not create new revenues.

“Nearly all the interactions on mobile so far have been checking balances,” he said. “That doesn't sound like a way to make money.”

Some amount of skepticism is healthy. Though the mobile payments, mobile wallet and mobile commerce businesses are in a higher tempo state at the moment, lots of work yet has to be done to create viable business ecosystems. Most retailers and consumers probably do not yet see a clear reason to add NFC or other forms of mobile payment, and so the base of terminals and devices remains miniscule.

So reasonable skepticism about what can happen immediately, or "soon," is warranted. But there has been an undeniable quickening of tempo in 2011. Wherever we are going, we will get there faster than seemed likely in 2010.

Read more.

2011 Social Gaming Revenue Dominated by Facebook

Some 27 percent of the online population of America will play at least one game on a social network at least once per month this year, says eMarketer. That's 62 million people, up from 53 million last year. In 2011, 29 percent of the U.S. online population will play a game on a social network at least once per month. More here.

Revenues from social gaming will be $1.32 billion in 2011, up from $856 million in 2010. Separately, Kevin Ryan, Gilt Groupe CEO says Facebook is on course to generate $1 billion in revenue this year from social gaming all by itself, with most of the revenue coming from advertising. But the $1 billion forecast also includes revenue from Facebook Credits, which allow users to buy items for games and other activities on the social network, he said. Read more.

5 Mobile Payment Tools for Business

According to a new survey conducted by Mobio Identity Systems, 94 percent of North Americans would be happy to complete payments through their phone if they knew the system were secure. Here are five of the top mobile payment solutions currently available for use by small businesses.

5 Mobile Payment Tools for Business

What the iPad Means to Unified Communications

"The first time I held a friend’s iPhone, my immediate reaction was, “Wow, this would be perfect if it were just a little bigger,” says Chris Sullivan, director of training and documentation for AVST.

"The iPad isn’t a game changer, but it’s essentially a more human version of a laptop," he says. The important thing is that Sullivan is thinking about the iPad and tablets in general as having implications for unified communications. But if you look at what Sullivan points to as examples of how the tablet, as a device, might set the stage for more use of UC, you will notice right away that very little of what he thinks is important about UC has to do with "voice" or "using phones," though that is what most people were thinking was at the core of UC some years ago.

Some might argue that most of what is important about the evolution of UC has to do with all sorts of applications other than voice, or phones. It is still about "communications," of course. It is just that "communications" now includes many different modes these days.

What the iPad Means to Unified Communications

Bearish View of Google+

Not everybody thinks Google+ will succeed. Some think it is another case of "technology for its own sake."

A spectre is haunting the technology industry. It is called "electric wok syndrome" and it mainly afflicts engineers and those who invest in their fantasies. The condition takes its name from the fact that nobody in his or her right mind would want an electric wok. But because it is possible to make such things, they are manufactured, regardless of whether or not there is a need for them. The syndrome is thus characterised by the mantra: 'Technology is the answer; now what was that question again?'

That isn't my view, but I am a big user of Google services, for work and everything else. I am seeing increasing traction with people I normally connect with in the technology space, which might not predict success in the broader consumer market. It is way too early to make any assessment of whether Google+ can succeed, though, for those who are skeptical or those who are optimistic.

Why Google social networking = electric wok

"You Don’t Know It’s A Bubble Until The Bubble Ends"

If you haven't lived through an Internet investing bubble and the burst, you are in for some surprises. Funding is going to dry up, which is why so many firms are raising money now, while they can. Innovation won't stop, but lots of would-be innovators will find themselves in an investing nuclear winter. Firms won't be able to easily go public, so we'll be back to the "sell my company to Google" exit strategy. There will be additional names on the "sell my company to" list, but the point is that it will be impossible for most start-ups to raise money, and hard to exit.

For people not in the Internet business, the impact will be more diffuse, but might be worse than the last time around, in 2001. The reason is that the economy was healthy then, and is definitely unhealthy now. House prices were still in a building bubble. Housing now is a bubble that has burst.
Some might still argue we are not in a bubble, or building towards a bubble.

"On the general question of bubble, in the first place you don’t know it’s a bubble until the bubble ends, by definition," says Google Executive Chairman Eric Schmidt. "The rule I set for myself 10 years ago was that if the press calls it a bubble then I’d pay attention, and let me report that the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal and the Economist have all written articles saying that it’s a bubble."

Almost by definition, once the bubble bursts, we are going to find out that no companies are worth as much as investors thought they were worth.

Eric Schmidt: You Don’t Know It’s A Bubble Until The Bubble Ends

Media Tablet Sales Lag Optimistic First Quarter Targets

Worldwide media tablet shipments into sales channels fell by 28 percent on a sequential basis in the first calendar quarter of 2011, to 7.2 million units worldwide, according to International Data Corporation. Looking forward, however, IDC raised its shipment forecast for 2011 to 53.5 million units from a previous projection of 50.4 million units.

“We expect the rest of the year to be much stronger, but we believe vendors who continue to focus on the telco channel for distribution will face serious challenges,” says Bob O'Donnell, IDC Vice President, Clients and Displays.

For the first quarter of 2011, the seasonal trends typically found in more mature consumer electronics and computing categories had a notable impact on the burgeoning media tablet market, suggesting that demand for the category may not be quite as strong as recent media hype suggests, IDC says.

Media Tablet Sales Lag Optimistic First Quarter Targets, But Forecast Remains Strong