Google Shuts Slide Gaming Business

Failure is never an easy thing for any executive to deal with, or to welcome. It doesn't matter that management consultants routinely urge companies to "try things and fail faster," to get to the winners.

In that vein, Google is shutting Slide, the social-gaming business it bought for about $200 million in 2010. It wouldn't be the first time a Google experiment has failed. Google tries lots of things.

But it takes deep pockets to shut down a line of business purchased within the last 12 months for that much money. Perhaps we ought to be happy there are firms which can spend that much money "trying things," with the ability to shut them down quickly if they don't get traction.

Google's thinking was solid, when the deal was done. As gaming as proven to be so sticky for Facebook, Google was looking for a way to add stickiness to its own social offerings. We all suspect gaming will be coming to Google+ in a bigger way, for that reason.

Google Shuts Slide Gaming Business

Jobs Exit Might Open Some Doors, But When?

Few, if any observers seem to believe Apple's market success will change soon, just because Steve Jobs has stepped away from his CEO role. There are some who think Apple will start to be more vulnerable at some point, though.

"What this will do is clearly embolden the competitors, because a lot of them think they just can't compete with Steve Jobs," said Rob Enderle, principal analyst with the Enderle Group, whose clients include Apple rivals such as Microsoft, Lenovo and Dell.

Some think Apple should start making changes, though. "Now that Jobs has stepped down, however, Apple has a great opportunity," argues PC World. "Rather than maintain its completely closed and locked-down approach to the technologies it makes, the time is right for Apple to open up." Apple needs to "open up?"

That seems to fly in the face of moves by many of Apple's competitors in the other direction, of copying Apple's tight integration of hardware and software. Some say Google's purchase of Motorola is a step in that direction.

"It's all about if Apple at some point makes a significantly bad decision," said Georges Nahon, the CEO at Orange Labs, a division of France Telecom SA. Jobs exit opens door Apple rivals

Some might say any move by Apple to "open up" would count as such a bad decision. 

Internet and Deregulation

There is a curios paradox about the way people think about the Telecommunications Act of 1996. Many people in favor of deregulation and competition would say it failed to bring about enough sustainable competition. In other words, it failed. On the other hand, you'd be very hard pressed to find anybody who actually believes their own communications services are in any way worse than they were before the Telecom Act was passed. In most cases, those same people would have a hard time claiming they are spending more money than they used to, for the same basket of services they bought pre-1996.

It is true that many of us are spending as much, or more, than before 1996, but it also is true we are buying lots more services, using more features and devices than before. The obvious way to reconcile those facts is to say that it was the Internet, and applications built on it, that really have lead to better consumer outcomes, for the most part.

Put another way, things got better, even though the Telecom Act failed, for other reasons. Where the Telecom Act attempted to introduce more competition in voice, the Internet was where the locus of innovation was passing. Even if matters had changed further in the direction of what new contestants would have preferred, would that have changed the fundamental direction we are headed?

The "voice" era was ending in any case, with innovation increasingly driven by broadband access and Internet, mobile and Web applications that rely on broadband.

Internet innovation succeeded, even if Telecom Act did not

Cable Still Leading Telcos in New Broadband Subscriptions

Leichtman Research Group, Inc. says  the eighteen largest cable and telephone providers in the United States, representing about 93 percent of the market, acquired about 350,000 net additional high-speed Internet subscribers in the second quarter of 2011. That represents the second lowest level of net additions LRG has tracked, historically.

The top cable companies accounted for 77 percent of the net broadband additions for the quarter. The largest phone companies added about 80,000 subscribers during the quarter, compared to a net loss of 10,000 subscribers in the second quarter of 2010.

AT&T and Verizon added 628,000 fiber subscribers in the quarter (U-verse and FiOS), while having a net loss of 578,000 DSL subscribers.

The top cable companies added over 270,000 broadband subscribers in the quarter. The top cable broadband providers have a 56 percent share of the overall market, with 8.9 million more subscribers than the top telephone companies, compared to 7.85 million this time a year ago.

Second quarter 2011 broadband additions

After Virginia Earthquake, Here's How Twitter-verse Reacted

Twitter reaction to quake

Steve Jobs, Life and Career in Animation

Mobile Hype Cycle Could be at a Peak: Why Does That Mean?

The 2011 KPMG Mobile Payments Outlook, based on a survey of nearly 1,000 executives primarily in the financial services, technology, telecommunications, and retail industries globally found that 83 percent of the respondents believe that mobile payments will be mainstream within four years (by 2015). In fact, 46 percent believe mobile payments will be mainstream within two years.

But there is room to disagree about the accuracy of those projections. One might argue that forecasts of this sort are notoriously unreliable, with respondents overestimating near term prospects.

Analysts at Gartner, for example, use a model of how expectations for significant new technologies running in a predictable cycle. What the cycle suggests is that expectations nearly always (always, according to the model) run ahead of marketplace acceptance.

What the Gartner hype cycle suggests is that expectations for mobile payments using near field communications are at a point where we can expect five to 10 years to elapse until NFC actually begins to make serious inroads as an adopted mainstream technology. The emphasis probably is important to note: “begins.”

But KPMG analysts take the opposite view, arguing that respondents are too pessimistic. “We believe that exploding smart phone growth and myriad opportunities will grow mobile payments at a much faster rate than our respondents anticipate,” said Gary Matuszak, KPMG Global Chair of the Technology, Communication and Entertainment practice.

“While KPMG believes that these forms of mobile payment will all gain some traction, our view is that mobile wallet is one of the most exciting and promising payment opportunities,” analysts say.

Mobile wallet provides the momentum to move beyond payments to participate in the entire chain of mobile commerce, from consideration and brand awareness to purchase after-sales loyalty and care,” said Tudor Aw, Technology Sector Head, KPMG Europe.
Banks, mobile service providers have key roles in mobile payment

If Gartner analysts are right about the near field communications "hype cycle," we should soon see some public "disillusionment" expressed about near term prospects for NFC. The reason is that Gartner now sees NFC at the "top" of its hype cycle, the point at which overly-optimistic projections face the reality of an extended period of development, before something "useful" actually emerges.

Internet TV, NFC payment and private cloud computing all are at what Garner calls the "Peak of Inflated Expectations," which is always followed by a period where the hype is viewed as outrunning the actual market. That suggests NFC soon will enter a phase where expectations are more measured.

In fact, Gartner now expects it will take five to 10 years before NFC is in widespread and mainstream use. Gartner's latest expectation likewise is that cloud computing and machine-to-machine applications will not be mainstream for another five to 10 years as well. Gartner's 2011 Hype Cycle