Kindle Dominates E-Reader Category

Some will not consider e-readers "tablets." But there now is little question about which device leads the e-reader category. Over the last two years, Amazon's Kindle has dominated the category. That has implications for e-reader manufacturers, content distributors and publishers. Amazon leads category

From a communications service provider perspective, e-readers and tablets constitute a major new potential market for "connected device" mobile broadband subscriptions, both indirectly, in the case of Wi-Fi devices,  and directly, in the case of devices that can connect directly to either 3G or 4G mobile networks.

Nor is the trend necessarily restricted to e-readers or tablets. Since  Amazon's Kindle reader software can be used on a variety of devices, including smart phones and PCs of various types, the potential change in consumer behavior exceeds what one might assume from sales figures for e-readers.

In fact, the growing base of Wi-Fi-only tablets and e-readers creates a new market for personal hotspot devices and features to support user tablets and e-readers. In that sense, even the adoption of "Wi-Fi-only" devices contributes directly to demand for mobile broadband subscriptions.

When Will Mobile Payments Hype Hit the "Disillusionment" Phase?

For U.S. or other service providers hoping that mobile payments and mobile banking will become lucrative revenue streams, some now argue, and more likely will argue, that the effort is doomed, difficult or destined to failure.

The reasons are numerous, ranging from organizational culture issues to consumer resistance, lack of retailer incentives, insufficient base of end user or retailer terminals, uncertain or insufficient revenue models, lack of end user demand, or technology uncertainty and user interface issues. All of those are valid objections at the moment.

If a report published recently by Lightspeed is indicative of the mood of the American public, the vast majority really don’t care much about mobile payments, some would say.  Too much hype?

Lightspeed foundthat only about a third of bank customers were actually using smart phones, for example.

Of those smart phone users, only eight  percent thought mobile banking was very important and another 13 percent thought it was somewhat important.

When asked about mobile payments less than five percent thought it very important, and 11 percent somewhat important. All of those are typical, at the moment, just as it is conceivable to generate more optimistic expectations in some polls that show much-higher interest.

But it would be helpful to keep in mind that hype cycles are normal for consumer or business technology innovations. Some people would probably say “mobile payments” has not yet reached the peak of its hype cycle. Others might say it already has, but some of us would say the degree of “negativity” isn’t high enough, yet, to warrant that view.

But that will happen.But when it does, you are going to hear quite a lot of negative sentiment. It has happened with virutally every new and important application or technology, and there is no reason to believe mobile payments will escape the cycle of expectations.  Be ready for the skepticism.

But Steve Jobs was able to avoid hype cycles, if you think about it. Not all Apple products have succeeded (Newton and Lisa, for example). But that might be because Apple, virtually alone among successful big consumer products companies, does not “take surveys” to try and figure out what products to create, on the well-founded theory that consumers cannot give you accurate assessments of products they never have seen.

In fact, as some would note, had Apple ever taken a survey on consumer demand for an “easy to use” PC, it would not have built the Apple computer.

Also, the coming value of mobile payments, wallets and mobile commerce will proceed on many different fronts, on a pace that end users will dictate by their behavior, as well as the complexity of the ecosystems that must be created.

Beyond the eventual “trough of disillustionment,” the real business will be built.

Massive Defections from BlackBerry?

Only 25 percent of BlackBerry owners have another BlackBerry on their smart phone wish list, Drippler apparently believes.


The other 75 percent want out of the RIM ecosystem and most of them want either an Android device or iPhone. Massive unhappiness

That might not be especially surprising, given the growth of consumer preferences for either Apple or Android devices. Smart phone forecast

Microsoft devices now are the wild card, though.

How Much Mobile Broadband Substitution Will Long Term Evolution Enable?

Few seem to doubt these days that mobile solutions have become functional substitutes for fixed line network products, with voice service being the obvious example. The new issue, especially as fourth generation networks are deployed and marketed, is the potential amount of potential product substitution for fixed line broadband. 


The key issue, for many fixed network competitors, is how much product substitution will occur, and how fast.
There seems little opposition to the notion that some significant potential for product substitution does exist, and not only in emerging markets where mobile broadband “will be broadband” much as “mobile voice is voice” and as the mobile phone is the primary way people in many markets will use the Internet.

Surveys by U.K. regulator Ofcom might be illustrative. Of all U.K. households in which at least one person is using mobile broadband services, 44 percent do not have a land-line broadband connection.

Since the first quarter of  2009 the number of U.K. households using both fixed and mobile broadband has been stable, at just under one in ten households, while those using solely fixed broadband  increased by two percentage points to 58 percent in the first quarter of  2011

Seven percent of U.K. households have only a mobile connection. Ofcom report

This mobile-only proportion is even larger among younger age groups and those who belong to lower socio-economic groups, the Ofcom report suggests.

Unsurprisingly, customers who rent their properties are also far more likely to use only a mobile broadband connection compared with those who own their own property.

This data demonstrates that substitution is a reality. There is no doubt that for a significant share of the U.K. population, mobile broadband  takes the place of a land-line connection to the Internet.

“We expect this group to grow steadily over the next four years as mobile network performance improves and prices remain competitive with land-line services,” says Declan Lonergan, Yankee Group analyst.

That doesn’t mean “most” consumers will do so; only that for many customer segments, this does make sense.

Sign of the Times at Best Buy

Best Buy, the U.S. electronics retailer, is reorganizing its retail sales groups into one "connectivity business group" that will focus on sales of mobile phones, computers, tablets, e-readers and the appropriate service plans at Best Buy and Best Buy Mobile stores.

The products inside the CBG group make up more than half of Best Buy's in-store sales as well as representing the fastest growing sectors for the company, outside of computers. That tells you quite a lot about what "consumer electronics" means these days, as well as where the sales volume is generated. 

Mobile phones and service plans are the largest generator of revenue at Best Buy.

The group will be comprised of 35,000 employees. Best Buy reorganizes around connected devices

LTE Will Mean Higher Mobile Broadband Substitution

Few seem to doubt these days that mobile solutions have become functional substitutes for fixed line network products, with voice service being the obvious example. The new issue, especially as fourth generation networks are deployed and marketed, is the potential amount of potential product substitution for fixed line broadband.

There seems little opposition to the notion that some significant potential for product substitution does exist, and not only in emerging markets where mobile broadband “will be broadband” much as “mobile voice is voice” and as the mobile phone is the primary way people in many markets will use the Internet.

Some would say the emergence of the mobile personal hotspot is a major enabler, as well, allowing a single mobile connection to serve multiple devices, instead of “one PC.”

Surveys by U.K. regulator Ofcom might be illustrative. Of all U.K. households in which at least one person is using mobile broadband services, 44 percent do not have a land-line broadband connection.

Since the first quarter of  2009 the number of U.K. households using both fixed and mobile broadband has been stable, at just under one in ten households, while those using solely fixed broadband  increased by two percentage points to 58 percent in the first quarter of  2011

Seven percent of U.K. households have only a mobile connection. Ofcom report

This mobile-only proportion is even larger among younger age groups and those who belong to lower socio-economic groups, the Ofcom report suggests.

Unsurprisingly, customers who rent their properties are also far more likely to use only a mobile broadband connection compared with those who own their own property.

This data demonstrates that substitution is a reality. There is no doubt that for a significant share of the U.K. population, mobile broadband  takes the place of a land-line connection to the Internet.

“We expect this group to grow steadily over the next four years as mobile network performance improves and prices remain competitive with land-line services,” says Declan Lonergan, Yankee Group analyst.

That doesn’t mean “most” consumers will do so; only that for many customer segments, this does make sense.

Screen Size Matters, But Mobiles are About Content Consumption

Mobile device screen size should make a difference in user behavior, one reasonably would expect, with lead applications varying with size of screen and input method. "Specifically, larger screen devices seem to fulfill productive needs while smaller screen devices tend to satisfy communication or entertainment needs," say researchers at In-Stat.

That should make sense. But the reported behavior might not always match actual behavior, particularly for tablets. PCs of all types remain a virtual requirement for content creation, while a variety of appliances can be used for content consumption.

Tablets and smaller-screen devices arguably represent a different lead experience, even though PCs, tablets and smart phones all are multi-purpose devices. That is to say, PCs (desktops and notebooks) can be used to consume or create content, but are virtually a requirement for creating content more complex than email or text messages.

Smart phones arguably still are balanced "communication" and "content consumption" devices. And though in surveys people tend to suggest they "work" on tablets, much of that "work" is one form or another of content consumption.

“The majority of tablet owners have a screen size between 9 and 11 inches, a size optimized for sophisticated uses that require a lot of interaction,” says Stephanie Ethier, In-Stat senior analyst. “The top uses for tablets are web browsing, email, and downloading and using applications, which are productivity-based uses. "

Portable media players, which can be virtually identical to tablets except for the smaller-than-5-inch screen, are used primarily to support entertainment-focused uses, like listening to music and watching video,” she says.

My own non-scientific observation is that tablets get used more often for "entertainment" than for work, though the "productivity" argument is used to justify buying them.

Apps differ by screen size?