Thursday, March 29, 2012

LTE Drives Optical Wireless Backhaul, Globally

The demand for mobile data in the U.S. market alone will grow at a compounded annual growth rate of 56 percent in the next four years, according to iGR.

In fact, more mobile data will be used in the first five weeks of 2016 than was consumed in all of 2011.

The corresponding growth in mobile backhaul means a CAGR of nearly 58 percent between 2011 and 2016. In other words, about 9.6 times as much mobile backhaul will be needed in 2016 as in 2011.

Microwave backhaul traffic is expected to grow at a CAGR of 68 percent from 2011 to 2016. But fiber is king: mobile backhaul traffic over fiber experiences the strongest growth in backhaul traffic, rising at a CAGR of nearly 85 percent.

So iGR thinks optical fiber will represent about 70 percent of all backhaul by about 2016.


U.S. Mobile Backhaul by Type, 2011-2016

Telcos "Don't Get it?"

Do telecom executives really not understand what is happening in their business? That often is the argument, and one could point to any number of indicators.

In some cases, there are tactical issues, such as inability to mine end user data in real time, and apply it to change operations. One might argue there sometimes are cultural issues. Perhaps there is no such thing as a very-large organization that actually is capable of moving rapidly and efficiency as a matter of course. So inertia remains an issue.

On the other hand, are there scenarios where "knowledge" does not provide any particularly useful clues to "action and change." The divested AT&T, one might argue, never "solved" the problem of declining long distance revenue and rates, no matter what it tried. In the end, neither AT&T nor MCI found continued existence as an independent and successful provider was possible, or the best course.

"It’s well understood that OTT (over the top) players are challenging the telecoms status quo, but many telcos don’t fully appreciate just what a big deal this is, said Mike McConnell, CTO and executive solution consultant for Huawei Technologies.

It might be true that for many app providers, the actual "product" is the user base, and what can be done, once there is a user base, to create revenue. For telcos, the services are the product.

The practical implications are that the "freemium" model--giving away something of significant value free--makes sense, as part of the process of building a user base. That would not come naturally for a communications service provider. Perhaps it cannot or should not be a preferred course of action, some would argue.

But that illustrates the problem. It might frequently be the case that executives in fact know full well what they face, but have no convenient solutions, any more than AT&T or MCI, as experienced as the managements of those companies were, could find winning solutions.

1.1 Billion Smart Phones, Tablets, PCs to Ship in 2012


About 1.1 billion smart phones, communications-capable tablets and PCs will be shipped globally in 2012, according to IDC. 

By 2016, IDC predicts shipments will reach 1.84 billion units, more than double the 2011 figure, a compound annual growth rate of 15.4 percent for the five-year forecast period.


The universe of smart connected devices, including PCs, media tablets, and smartphones, saw shipments of more than 916 million units and revenues surpassing $489 billion dollars in 2011, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC). 

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Apple Has Presence in Half of U.S. Homes

Half of all U.S. households own at least one Apple product, according to a CNBC survey. 


That’s more than 55 million homes with at least one iPhone, iPad, iPod or Mac computer. And 10 percent of non-owning homes will buy an Apple product in 2012. 


Homes that own least one Apple, own an average of three Apple devices.


You would be hard pressed to think of any other brand name electronics product with that level of adoption.  

If Reviews are Accurate, Starbucks, PayPal Lead Mobile Payments

The Apple App Store does not provide detailed breakouts of which specific apps are getting the most activity. On the other hand, Apple does report user review data. By that indicator, at least within the iOS ecosystem, Starbucks and PayPal are getting most of the attention, in the mobile payment area, at least on iTunes.

More Xbox Live Users Watch TV than Play Games

Xbox Live Gold members in the US are now spending an average of 84 hours per month on Xbox Live, with entertainment app usage up more than 100 percent year over year. Globally, this has led to a 30 percent increase in the total hours spent on Xbox Live around the world.


The result of this increased Xbox Live activity means that for the first time on Xbox, entertainment usage has surpassed multiplayer game usage. According to Microsoft, Xbox Live members in the US are now spending more time watching TV, listening to music, and watching movies than they are playing multi-player games. 


That's one angle about the "post-PC era." We still use PCs to work. But much of what we want to do with "computing" devices is consume content. The growing availability of devices that bring such latent demand to the surface illustrates the trend. 


That might be why Apple finally was able to break through resistance and create a new tablet market, despite well over a decade of attempts to create demand for "tablet PCs." The big change is that tablets now are viewed as content consumption platforms, not "PCs." 

At Least Among Top Sites, iPad Apps are "Better" than Android Versions

The 12 Best Android Tablet Apps It is no secret that most developers prefer the iPad ecosystem to the Android ecosystem, for the simple reason that the sales volume is higher in the iPad realm. An anecdotal survey of top apps by PC Magazine tends to confirm that the top sites are developing "first" for iPad. 


Google Play might help, eventually, but right now the problem is just that iPad gets the first attention, and in some cases Android apps are developed for smart phones, not tablets.


Almost all of the brands are at least represented on Google Play, and some display more apps per brand on Android than on the iPad. But the Android tablet apps often simply are not as aesthetically pleasing, because, so far, developers haven't put in the work to make them more palatable. 



Agentic AI Should Change Computing Infrastructure: Issue is How Much

Agentic artificial intelligence, eventually featuring teams of autonomous agents working in concert, should have some obvious impact on comp...