How Important Has App Ecosystem Become?

It is a given these days that a robust applications environment is essential for an operating system or device to attain huge success in the consumer market. What is less clear is whether any device manufacturer "needs" its own app ecosystem, or can succeed by leveraging the OS ecosystem. 

A somewhat related question is whether other participants in the mobile business "need" their own ecosystems to enhance their specific roles within the ecosystem. The value and feasibility of mobile service provider app stores provides an example. 

Samsung also is a case in point. Up to this point, Samsung has achieved significant success in the smart phone business by leveraging Android and the Android apps ecosystem. One might argue that nothing has changed, just because of the Apple patent infringement win. 

Google Play arguably provides equal benefit to every manufacturer of Android handsets. And, at least so far, it is hard to see that Google's ownership of Motorola has bestowed any particular advantage on Motorola, or any particular disadvantage to any Android licensee. 

Microsoft does face a problem, though, in building a critical mass of developers and apps for Windows Mobile. It's just a classic "chicken and egg" problem. Developers don't have lots of incentive to develop for an ecosystem with negligible numbers of users. Users don't have unusual incentives to buy a device using an OS that has significantly fewer apps available. 

That doesn't mean Microsoft can't get it done, but the end user device installed base will matter. 

 

Need More Spectrum?

Though it might seem unlikely, there is some debate about whether additional mobile spectrum really is needed. 

In some cases, the issue is "who has it" and who does not. But most in the business argue consistently that spectrum resources are inadequate for future needs. Others think the carriers just want more spectrum to avoid using other methods of handling capacity demands. 

Licensed spectrum normally is considered the basic raw material for creating a mobile business. But Wi-Fi offload shows there are other tools potentially useful for improving the performance of any network using any discrete amount of spectrum. 

Better antenna technologies, signal coding, network architectures or even mergers and acquisitions can alleviate apparent physical shortages, some would argue. 

But some would point out that 16 percent of the airwaves best suited for mobile broadband are available for that purpose.  

A significant majority – nearly 85 percent – of the crucial spectrum needed to support consumer demand is occupied primarily by government agencies and television broadcasters, Mobile Future says. 

How "Machine to Machine" and "Cloud Computing" Figure into Mobile Commerce

Machine to machine communications, sometimes referred to a new "Internet of things," is viewed as a major growth opportunity by most larger mobile service providers in developed markets, for obvious reasons. 

To create large networks of distributed, small sensors that often are mobile or untethered, and must operate at relatively low costs per unit, mobile networks are ideal. Much of the discussion about real-world applications now focuses on telemetry applications in the energy and transportation industries, for example. 

Separately, lots of companies and developers are working on mobile wallets, mobile payment systems and mobile commerce systems that aim to glean real-time intelligence about potential customers and shoppers, before, during and after a visit to a retail location.

Underneath it all, software and applications are designed to work with heavy reliance on external data center processing of data. So it already is possible to forecast that cloud computing, M2M networks, smart phones and 4G networks will be used together to create new mobile commerce opportunities and services. 

In retail environments, retailers are looking at mobile apps as ways to identify all shoppers, connect them with their shopping profiles, and either sell them something or at least gain enough data about them to help make a sale during the next visit, an article in the Harvard Business Review suggests. 

That typically involves ways to correlate past purchase data, current offers or loyalty systems with present location, for example.  But there might be new ways to combine mobile commerce systems with machine to machine networks, or make the mobile network itself use the phone as a sensor, to create more shopper intelligence. The issue, for some, will be privacy issues. 

When a family or group shops together, data theoretically can be gleaned from the person who checks out. Typically, nothing is learned about the others who do not actually check out, bur are exercising buying influence in the store.

Facial-recognition software might be used to identify groups' sizes and estimate members' ages, which could allow stores to provide the customers with targeted displays, without requiring any detailed personal knowledge. 

For example, a car dealership could put minivan ads on monitors as a family walks up to the showroom door.

In a more intrusive application, a RFID reader could, in principle,  wirelessly glean details from a credit card that never leaves a pocket or purse, as a person enters a store. 

Encouraging shoppers to use a shopping app while inside the store is one less objectionable way to correlate location inside the store with delivery of context-dependent coupons or suggested products. 

High-speed processing, typically using cloud-based mechanism, is a must, because customers don't linger long at any one physical spot when shopping. 

In U.K. Fixed Business, Data Revenues Will Not Replace Lost Voice Revenues

Smart Phones Will be a Majority of Devices Sold in 2013, Globally

Smart phones will account for the majority of global mobile phone shipments in 2013, for the first time, about two years earlier than previously predicted by IHS iSuppli. Among the reasons are a strong demand for lower-cost smart phones in developing regions.

Smart phone shipments in 2013 are forecast to account for 54 percent of the total mobile phones sold, up from 46 percent in 2012 and 35 percent in 2011, according to IHS iSuppli.

“Over the past 12 months, smart phones have fallen in price, and a wider variety of models have become available, spurring sales of both low-end smartphones in regions like Asia-Pacific, as well as mid-range to high-end phones in the United States and Europe,” according to IHS iSuppli.

By 2016, smart phones will represent 67.4 percent of the total mobile phone market.

Feature phones, which lack the sophisticated functionality of smartphones, in 2011 represented 46 percent of sales, but will drop to 41 percent in 2012.

By 2016, feature phones will have market share of 28 percent.

Entry-level and ultra-low-cost handsets will have14 percent share in 2012 and 4.2 percent share by 2016.

Samsung Resale Prices Drop, Apple Patent Win Seen as Cause

Significantly more customers of Samsung are putting their smart phones up for sale on Gazelle.com. Gazelle.com reports a 50 percent increase in placements of Samsung smart phones in the last week of August, which has led to a 10 percent drop in prices for those devices.

“Consumers seem to be jumping ship,” says Anthony Scarsella, chief gadget officer at Gazelle.com. “We expect this trend to continue, especially with this latest verdict.”

It is possible that Samsung users suspect the next generation of Samsung phones may be very different from those on the market today. That could be an issue since consumers get used to certain key features of their phones, and they might not be so sure that will be the case in the future. 

Indian Consumer Fixed Services Market To Reach Rs 240 Billion In 2012

The Indian consumer fixed services market is on pace to reach Rs 240 billion in 2012, a 2 percent increase from 2011 revenue of Rs 235 billion, according to Gartner. At an exchange rate of 44 rupees to one U.S. dollar, that implies about $5.5 billion in fixed network revenue. 

By way of comparison, 2012 mobile voice revenue should reach about $25 billion. 

Consumer fixed voice revenue is forecast to reach Rs 148 billion in 2012, a seven percent decline from 2011. From 2012 through 2016, voice revenue will further decline by 25 percent, Gartner says. 

“Voice traffic continues to shift to mobile,” said Neha Gupta, senior research analyst at Gartner. 

The Indian consumer fixed line services market will see growth from broadband and Internet access sectors, which will collectively grow to Rs. 92 billion in 2012. 

In 2012, household broadband penetration will cross six percent.