Will U.K. Business Largely Abandon Landlines Within 5 Years?

Some 65 percent of 500 U.K. chief information officers surveyed by Vanson Bourne on behalf of Virgin Media Business believe fixed network telephones “will disappear from everyday use within five years,” Virgin Media Business says.

PCs are the next most likely to become redundant according to 62 per cent of CIOs. In contrast, smart phones (13 percent) are seen as the least likely devices to be abandoned.

If those opinions wind up being correct, whether the magnitude or timing of the changes are accurate, there will be shifts of opportunity for suppliers of unified communications, business phone systems, mobile and fixed network service providers alike.

Aside from depressing sales of business phone systems, there are potentially greater opportunities for providers of hosted alternatives, especially those providers whose unified communications services are well suited to use of mobile devices.

But the impact is likely to be disparate. Some workers might find there is less need for unified communications. But call center functions obviously will continue to require a high level of support.

Collaboration functions could shift to other media types.

But if the CIOs are accurate, business voice rapidly is shifting to mobile modes, for most workers, with obvious architectural implications.

Tablet technology, on the other hand, is seen as something of a fad by about 24 percent of companies expect the devices to fall out of fashion.

By the end of 2012, 70 percent of the U.K. population is expected to have a smart device reliant on mobile connectivity, Virgin Media Business argues. Already, in the past year the amount of data consumed on the Virgin Media Business network jumped to 765 billion individual bits of data being transferred every second, erasing the previous mark for the Virgin Media Business network by 27 percent, Virgin Media Business says.

Historically, one might have argued that the higher cost of mobile calling would make it an unlikely substitute for fixed network calling. But the differences are shrinking.

The wholesale price of calling mobile phones from a landline is set to fall 85 percent by April 2015, according to  the U.K. Competition Appeals Tribunal.

The Ofcom decision to reduce mobile termination rates will mean an estimated caller savings of about  £800 million. Mobile termination rates could mean the cost of calls, on a per minute basis, would fall from 4.18p to just 0.65p.

Apple will Create its Own Wireless Network with "AirPlay Direct"

Apple wants to improve the AirPlay wireless music streaming technology, which currently requires Airplay speakers and a WiFi network. The new version will require just speakers or a stereo system and an iDevice. Reportedly, the iPhone, iPod or iPad would form its own network to allow a direct connection and music playback.

The move is expected to be announced at the launch of the new iPhone, which is widely rumoured to take place on September 12, according to the Telegraph

In its current form, AirPlay allows users to stream video, music, and other audio from their Apple devices to an Apple TV or to AirPlay-enabled speakers. This ability requires a local Wi-Fi network.

Presumably, Apple is thinking about enabling new  third party speakers to build Wi-Fi capability directly into the speakers or a receiver so that the streaming signal can be received directly from an iDevice. 

In other words, iDevices will create their own Wi-Fi network, assuming there is a backhaul or access network the iDevice can connect to. 

How Important Has App Ecosystem Become?

It is a given these days that a robust applications environment is essential for an operating system or device to attain huge success in the consumer market. What is less clear is whether any device manufacturer "needs" its own app ecosystem, or can succeed by leveraging the OS ecosystem. 

A somewhat related question is whether other participants in the mobile business "need" their own ecosystems to enhance their specific roles within the ecosystem. The value and feasibility of mobile service provider app stores provides an example. 

Samsung also is a case in point. Up to this point, Samsung has achieved significant success in the smart phone business by leveraging Android and the Android apps ecosystem. One might argue that nothing has changed, just because of the Apple patent infringement win. 

Google Play arguably provides equal benefit to every manufacturer of Android handsets. And, at least so far, it is hard to see that Google's ownership of Motorola has bestowed any particular advantage on Motorola, or any particular disadvantage to any Android licensee. 

Microsoft does face a problem, though, in building a critical mass of developers and apps for Windows Mobile. It's just a classic "chicken and egg" problem. Developers don't have lots of incentive to develop for an ecosystem with negligible numbers of users. Users don't have unusual incentives to buy a device using an OS that has significantly fewer apps available. 

That doesn't mean Microsoft can't get it done, but the end user device installed base will matter. 

 

Need More Spectrum?

Though it might seem unlikely, there is some debate about whether additional mobile spectrum really is needed. 

In some cases, the issue is "who has it" and who does not. But most in the business argue consistently that spectrum resources are inadequate for future needs. Others think the carriers just want more spectrum to avoid using other methods of handling capacity demands. 

Licensed spectrum normally is considered the basic raw material for creating a mobile business. But Wi-Fi offload shows there are other tools potentially useful for improving the performance of any network using any discrete amount of spectrum. 

Better antenna technologies, signal coding, network architectures or even mergers and acquisitions can alleviate apparent physical shortages, some would argue. 

But some would point out that 16 percent of the airwaves best suited for mobile broadband are available for that purpose.  

A significant majority – nearly 85 percent – of the crucial spectrum needed to support consumer demand is occupied primarily by government agencies and television broadcasters, Mobile Future says. 

How "Machine to Machine" and "Cloud Computing" Figure into Mobile Commerce

Machine to machine communications, sometimes referred to a new "Internet of things," is viewed as a major growth opportunity by most larger mobile service providers in developed markets, for obvious reasons. 

To create large networks of distributed, small sensors that often are mobile or untethered, and must operate at relatively low costs per unit, mobile networks are ideal. Much of the discussion about real-world applications now focuses on telemetry applications in the energy and transportation industries, for example. 

Separately, lots of companies and developers are working on mobile wallets, mobile payment systems and mobile commerce systems that aim to glean real-time intelligence about potential customers and shoppers, before, during and after a visit to a retail location.

Underneath it all, software and applications are designed to work with heavy reliance on external data center processing of data. So it already is possible to forecast that cloud computing, M2M networks, smart phones and 4G networks will be used together to create new mobile commerce opportunities and services. 

In retail environments, retailers are looking at mobile apps as ways to identify all shoppers, connect them with their shopping profiles, and either sell them something or at least gain enough data about them to help make a sale during the next visit, an article in the Harvard Business Review suggests. 

That typically involves ways to correlate past purchase data, current offers or loyalty systems with present location, for example.  But there might be new ways to combine mobile commerce systems with machine to machine networks, or make the mobile network itself use the phone as a sensor, to create more shopper intelligence. The issue, for some, will be privacy issues. 

When a family or group shops together, data theoretically can be gleaned from the person who checks out. Typically, nothing is learned about the others who do not actually check out, bur are exercising buying influence in the store.

Facial-recognition software might be used to identify groups' sizes and estimate members' ages, which could allow stores to provide the customers with targeted displays, without requiring any detailed personal knowledge. 

For example, a car dealership could put minivan ads on monitors as a family walks up to the showroom door.

In a more intrusive application, a RFID reader could, in principle,  wirelessly glean details from a credit card that never leaves a pocket or purse, as a person enters a store. 

Encouraging shoppers to use a shopping app while inside the store is one less objectionable way to correlate location inside the store with delivery of context-dependent coupons or suggested products. 

High-speed processing, typically using cloud-based mechanism, is a must, because customers don't linger long at any one physical spot when shopping. 

In U.K. Fixed Business, Data Revenues Will Not Replace Lost Voice Revenues

Smart Phones Will be a Majority of Devices Sold in 2013, Globally

Smart phones will account for the majority of global mobile phone shipments in 2013, for the first time, about two years earlier than previously predicted by IHS iSuppli. Among the reasons are a strong demand for lower-cost smart phones in developing regions.

Smart phone shipments in 2013 are forecast to account for 54 percent of the total mobile phones sold, up from 46 percent in 2012 and 35 percent in 2011, according to IHS iSuppli.

“Over the past 12 months, smart phones have fallen in price, and a wider variety of models have become available, spurring sales of both low-end smartphones in regions like Asia-Pacific, as well as mid-range to high-end phones in the United States and Europe,” according to IHS iSuppli.

By 2016, smart phones will represent 67.4 percent of the total mobile phone market.

Feature phones, which lack the sophisticated functionality of smartphones, in 2011 represented 46 percent of sales, but will drop to 41 percent in 2012.

By 2016, feature phones will have market share of 28 percent.

Entry-level and ultra-low-cost handsets will have14 percent share in 2012 and 4.2 percent share by 2016.