The purchase by SpaceX of EchoStar AWS-4 and H-block spectrum licenses marks a beginning and an end. The end is EchoStar’s hopes of becoming a fourth facilities-based mobile service provider in the U.S. market.
The beginning is SpaceX’s ambition to become a facilities-based provider of satellite “direct to mobile phone” (D2M) service in the U.S. market. It remains unclear how big that market could become, and some will doubt it is a full-on substitute for conventional mobile service.
Low estimates by Juniper Research might suggest global revenues of $30 million in 2025 scaling to $1.7 billion by 2029, assuming the U.S. market represents 60 percent of the global market.
Grand View Research estimates are higher, forecasting global revenues of as much as $435 million in 2025, with U.S. share at about 31 percent.
MarketsandMarkets suggests a 2025 market of $560 million in 2025, with U.S. at 42 percent share).
Those estimates include direct-to-phone services that are either exclusive (as SpaceX will provide) or as supplementary service to a terrestrial mobile service for which an extra charge is required.
Compare that to estimated total U.S. mobile operator revenue in 2025 ranging from $340 billion to $344 billion. Satellite direct-to-phone is going to be a niche, though it will be an important niche for users who cannot get cell service otherwise, in hard-to-reach areas (mountains, very-rural areas not alongside major highways, on the oceans, in disaster areas where the mobile network is inoperable).
The transaction provides SpaceX with valuable mid-band spectrum assets—AWS-4 covering 2000-2020 MHz downlink and 2180 MHz uplink, and H-block spanning 1915-1920 MHz uplink and 1995-2000 MHz downlink. The key is that those frequencies allow satellite signals to be used by standard smartphones.
Such D2M services could enable seamless texting, calling, and low-bandwidth browsing during natural disasters or for off-grid users, without requiring specialized hardware like external antennas.
Speeds might start modest (2-4 Mbps), but the value lies in ubiquitous global coverage.
D2M could serve as a complementary "always-on" layer, filling coverage gaps that affect about 20 percent to 30 percent of the U.S. land area where people normally are found.
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