Google to Sell Touchscreen Devices Using Chrome in 2013

Touchscreen notebooks based on Chrome and presumably built by a third party will be sold by Google sometime in 2013. 

Some may wonder why Google does not move immediately to unify Android and Chrome environments, instead of supporting two environments, one for PCs and the other for smart phones and tablets. 

In fact, Google executives have said in the past that Android and Chrome will, at some point, be unified. Obviously Google continues to believe, or at least, the supporters of the two operating system approach within Google continue to believe, that two operating systems are the best solution for now.

That line of reasoning might be that even if the two operating systems eventually are merged, that does not mean such a unification is best attempted now. Perhaps the better approach is to optimize each for the distinct roles of PCs and smart phones and tablets, for the moment.

Cost, simplicity, minimal overhead and speed all could be valid reasons for doing so, at least for the moment. As smart phones morph into larger screen tablets, and PCs morph into smaller screen netbooks, there might come a time when a new sort of device logically is the place to create one single operating system. 

But, for the moment, Google might be betting it is better off to optimize the smart phone and notebook environments for the use cases and interfaces people tend to expect in each domain, and then only gradually unify the approaches as users begin to change their interface preferences, if in fact that happens. 

Some of us would continue to argue that the user interface for a content creation and work task is quite distinct from a content consumption application. As a rational engineer would not simply duplicate unneeded functionality across different device families, neither would a rational engineer try to stretch the multi-function, multi-device approach too far, too fast. That tends to lead to devices that aren't the best in either domain. 

Myanmar's Telecom "Big Bang" is Coming

Myanmar says it has gotten statements of interest from 91 companies interested in one of two initial new communications licenses to be issued by Myanmar.

The new national licenses do not appear to specify which network technologies can be used to build the new networks. But most observers would tend to agree that mobile will be the only logical way to build new networks from scratch, and that Long Term Evolution 4G mobile networks will be the logical choice.

It appears that a total of four licenses will ultimately be issued, two to domestic firms and two to foreign firms.

Myanmar, where nine percent of the population has a mobile phone, wants to boost telecom communication availablitiy to as much as 80 percent of the country by 2016.

Myanmar is among the countries in Asia with the least availability of communications services. Cambodia has a services penetration rate of 70 percent, Laos 87 percent and Thailand more than 100 percent.

U.K. LTE Auction: Disruptive or Not?

The U.K. Long Term Evolution spectrum auction is over, and the results might surprise some observers. Some had thought there would only be enough spectrum for three winners of the 800 MHz spectrum, a result that would have put one of the leading four U.K. service providers at a disadvantage.

Instead, not only did all four leading providers win 800 MHz spectrum, but BT is getting back into the mobile business as a spectrum-owning, facilities-based provider, using the 2.6 GHz band. 

As it turns out, the auctions will not potentially disrupt the existing market in the sense that one of the leading four mobile service providers would have been shut out of 4G spectrum ownership. Instead, all four leading providers will have their own LTE spectrum. 

But BT is getting back into the mobile business on a facilities-based basis. And that could shake up market dynamics. In that sense, the auctions are potentially disruptive.
Also, the winners bid in a rational way, as shown by the total sums the contestants bid to win their licenses. Though some had feared overbidding by the contestants, the auction actually raised less money than the U.K. government had expected, based on the earlier Netherlands auction.

The auction raised £2.34 billion ($3.61 billion) for the government, but some had forecast the auction would raise £3.5 billion.

Though arguably not as good for the government, the license fees will be helpful for the contestants themselves, who did not “overbid” for licenses, as was the case with 3G auctions.

After more than 50 rounds of bidding, Everything Everywhere Ltd, Hutchison 3G UK Ltd, Niche Spectrum Ventures Ltd (a subsidiary of BT Group plc), Telefónica UK Ltd and Vodafone Ltd have all won new Long Term Evolution spectrum in the United Kingdom.

Of those four service providers, only one--Telefónica UK Ltd.--has a “universal service obligation related to its use of coveted 800-MHz spectrum. .

Telefónica U.K. Ltd. must provide a mobile broadband service for indoor reception to at least 98 percent of the U.K. population (expected to cover at least 99 percent when outdoors) and at least 95 percent of the population of each of the U.K. nations – England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales – by the end of 2017 at the latest.

A total of 250 MHz of spectrum was auctioned in two separate bands – 800 MHz and 2.6 GHz. This is equivalent to two-thirds of the radio frequencies currently used by wireless devices such as tablets, smartphones and laptops.

The lower-frequency 800 MHz band is better for widespread mobile coverage, while the 2.6 GHz band offers higher capacity.

Spectrum Results

Winning bidder	Spectrum won	Base price
Everything Everywhere Ltd	2 x 5 MHz of 800 MHz and 2 x 35 MHz of 2.6 GHz	£588,876,000
Hutchison 3G UK Ltd	2 x 5 MHz of 800 MHz	£225,000,000
Niche Spectrum Ventures Ltd (a subsidiary of BT Group plc)	2 x 15 MHz of 2.6 GHz and 1 x 20 MHz of 2.6 GHz (unpaired)	£186,476,000
Telefónica UK Ltd	2 x 10 MHz of 800 MHz (coverage obligation lot)	£550,000,000
Vodafone Ltd	2 x 10 MHz of 800 MHz, 2 x 20 MHz of 2.6 GHz and 1 x 25 MHz of 2.6 GHz (unpaired)	£790,761,000
Total		£2,341,113,000

Mobile and Fixed Broadband Switch Roles, Fast

Something interesting has happened in the broadband access business, namely a huge reversal of market share in just several years. Consider that as recently as 2008, some estimates had fixed broadband connections outnumbering mobile broadband by about a four to one margin.

In 2012, the ratio was reversed, and there were four mobile broadband connections in use for every fixed connection. That sort of change--that fast--does not happen in the communications business very often.

The number of mobile broadband subscribers around the world surpassed that of fixed broadband at the end of 2010, in appears. So mobile broadband went from a 20 percent of market state to a 50 percent of market state in just two years, by some estimates.

After about another three years, mobile broadband grew to represent 80 percent of all broadband connections, by some measures. That is a breathtaking change, in terms of the speed of the change.

By 2015, it is anticipated that there will be 3.1 billion mobile broadband subscribers compared to 848 million fixed broadband subscribers.

Global fixed broadband subscriptions reached around 550 million in 2011, mainly boosted by strong growth of DSL in China.

China is the largest single country in terms of fixed broadband subscriptions with around 140 million, followed by the United States and Japan. DSL represents more than 60 percent of all fixed broadband subscriptions followed by cable and Fiber-To-The-Home/Building (FTTH/B). 

The high growth rate of mobile broadband means that mobile broadband, if it has not already grown to represent 80 percent of total broadband subscriptions, will have done so by 2015 or so.

In emerging markets, mobile broadband is expected to increase from 37 to 79 percent of all broadband subscriptions between 2010 and 2015.

The growth of mobile broadband is not news. But what might be more shocking is the growth rate and the size of the installed base. Rarely does mobile substitution for fixed services happen so fast.

Mobile Payments Might Take a While....

Technology adoption, though we sometimes believe otherwise, can take quite a long time, even for innovations that wind up being quite useful and ubiquitous. Indeed, many popular innovations were adopted relatively quickly, and there is a trend for newer digital products to be adopted very rapidly.

Telephone and electricity took decades to reach significant penetration. The PC, the Internet (Web, at least) and mobile phones were adopted much faster.

Given the current interest in mobile payments, mobile banking and mobile wallets, it might be worth remembering that innovations related to payments and money often take decades to reach significant penetration.

The point is that it would not be unusual for a decade to pass before we even get to the inflection point for adoption, often said to be 10 percent of households. The point is that there is plenty of time for any number of approaches, and competitors, to disappear before we reach 10 percent adoption of households. 

But a corollary might also be true. No contestant not already in the market when the inflection point is reached, likely will be among the leaders when the market reaches 50 percent.

China Now Has More Tablets And Smartphones Than The US

By the end of February 2013, China will have 246 million devices compared to 230 million in the United States,” says mobile analytics company Flurry.

In January, the US and China were within one million devices of one another. Flurry is measuring what it calls “active” devices, which means phones and tablets that are actually connecting to the internet, and not simply devices sold.

NTT DOCOMO’s LTE Subscribers Top 10 Million

NTT DOCOMO says subscribers to "Xi" (pronounced “crossy”), the company’s Long Term Evolution mobile service, surpassed ten million subscribers on February 18, 2012. 

Subscribers reached one million in December 2011 and then topped five million in August 2012. 

DOCOMO also is boosting speeds, adding a 112.5 Mbps downlink, available in 22 cities by March 2013 and more than 50 cities by June 2013. 

LTE base stations offering a 75 Mbps downlink, double the current speed in many locations, will amount to 4,000 by March 2013 and then jump to 10,000 by June 2013. 

DOCOMO also plans to introduce a 150 Mbps downlink service before March 2014.