Thursday, April 4, 2013

Cord Avoiders, Not Cord Cutters, Appear to be the Video Subscription Provider Problem


About 3.74 million (3.7 percent) U.S. subscription video service subscribers cut their TV subscriptions 2008 2012 to rely solely on alternative viewing options, including Netflix and other online alternatives, in 2012.

Convergence Consulting Group also forecasts that U.S. TV cord cutter households will reach 4.7 million (4.7 percent of total households) by year-end 2013. For some, that means cord cutting is a modest problem.

Others might argue the bigger immediate problem is “cord avoiders ” namely people who can afford a video subscription but do not find the product relevant.

Credit Suisse analysts who said they remain optimistic on cable and satellite entertainment businesses nevertheless see the developing new problem as "cord-avoiders," households that are relying on video alternatives in an arguably new way.

Many new households simply are not signing up for cable or satellite, the analysts said. While there were 1.8 million households formed, according to U.S. Census estimates cited by the report, only 16.9 percent of them signed up for video entertainment services.

A reasonable way to describe the trend is to say that the audience for free online full-episode TV (not Hulu Plus, iTunes, Netflix, or walled garden requiring a paid subscription) has slightly declined, says Convergence Consulting Group. The audience using subscription TV services has not fallen off a cliff.

Nor is it so clear that the abandonment rate has even accelerated. In fact, service providers still are adding net new subscribers.

Convergence Consulting Group estimates 31,000 U.S. TV subscribers were added in 2012,
down from 112,000 in 2011, and forecasts 98,000 net video service subscriber additions for 2013.

Over the 2004 to 2009 period, annual U.S. subscription TV net additions averaged 1.86 million. So it would be fair to say that the video subscription market is close to full saturation, a condition that is not necessarily directly linked to video abandonment, but is linked at some level, based on growing consumer resistance to price hikes.

On Smart Phones, Apps Rule, Not Web


Today, the U.S. consumer spends an average of 2 hours and 38 minutes each day on smart phones and tablets. And to illustrate the impact mobile apps have had, Flurry points out that  80 percent of that time (2 hours and 7 minutes) is spent inside “apps,” while just 20 percent (31 minutes) is spent on the mobile Web, defined by Flurry to include any use of a “mobile browser.”

So does that mean the "end of the Web?" Not necessarily. It is a truism that people do different things on their mobiles than on their PCs. For the former, apps rule, in terms of time of engagement. On PCs, the web arguably remains key.

Gaming apps remain the largest category of all apps used, representing 32 percent of time spent on a smart phone or tablet. Facebook is second with 18 percent.

One might argue that the amount of web usage is understated, since many people consume web content from inside the Facebook app, for example.

For example, when a Facebook user clicks on a friend’s link or article, that content is shown inside the app without launching a native web browser.

The average number of apps launched per day by consumers climbs from 7.2 in 2010 to 7.5 in 2011 and finally to 7.9 in 2012.

Assertions that people are using fewer apps in 2012 than they did in 2010 appear to be incorrect, Flurry argues. Consumers use about eight apps each day.

Does this mean the web is dead? “We don’t believe so,” Flurry says. “On the contrary, we believe that the web will change and adapt to the reality of smartphones and tablets.”

That likely means websites will look and behave more like apps. Websites will be optimized for user experience first and search engine optimization second.

The launch on April 4, 2013 of Facebook Home provides one example of the growing “mobile first” orientation app providers are adopting.

Consumers are spending an average of nearly 30 minutes per day on Facebook, on mobiles, Flurry suggests.  The 30 minutes a day is a worldwide average which means a large group spends even more time on Facebook (possibly hours).


Wednesday, April 3, 2013

Service Providers Have 3 or 4 Possible Business Models


There are any number of ways to describe the growing stress on communications service provider business models in Europe. Service providers are adopting three distinct business models, according to Bart Bastiaans and Lars van Zomeren, consultants with KPMG in the Netherlands.

Those models include the “private access network” model, the “shared access” model and the “mobile virtual network operator” model. Only the first model uses the traditional “owned infrastructure” approach.

The “shared access” model uses one or more levels of network sharing, while the MVNO model is a wholesale-based model with no network ownership.

Traditionally, network ownership has conferred business value. That works when access is expensive and therefore scarce. The model doesn’t work nearly so well when there are multiple access providers competing in a single market.

“In markets where networks are no longer seen as a differentiator, private access network models most often result in high capital costs with little added value,” the KPMG analysts say.

In the shared access model. assets are shared between competitors. In some cases, only the passive assets (such as towers but not antennas) are shared while in other cases entire active mobile networks are shared and jointly managed.

Traditionally, the mobile virtual network operator model is among the non-facilities-based ways service providers can do business.

Others have argued there are just four future models. Researchers at Booz and Company have argued that there are four basic business models.

Half the models essentially are wholesale in orientation; one requires global operations and one is the traditional model, but with operators moving further up the value chain.

The "network guarantor" model has network infrastructure providers operating in a wholesale mode, providing other retail providers network services.

The "business enabler" is a mixed model, including both retail broadband services as well as wholesale broadband, managed services, transaction and billing support, and platforms such as hosting and cloud computing.

The "experience creator" is closest to the current retail model used by most service providers globally. Experience creators will look to move up the telecom value chain and provide end-users, both consumers and business customers, with the ubiquitous connectivity they demand, with targeted applications, fresh content, and a distinctive experience, and with the ability to create and distribute their own content.

The "global multimarketer" model is a retail model, but requires global operations and scale beyond a single nation.  Already, more than 75 percent of telecom subscribers in regions such as Europe and the Middle East are owned by global operators,” Booz & Co. says.

There are challenges for service providers in all four scenarios. The "wholesale only, network guarantor" model offers a trade off. There is less sales, marketing and customer service cost, since the products are wholesale, sold only to retailers, not to actual end users. On the other hand, gross revenues likely are smaller, and profit margins also will tend to be lower than is typical for retail operations.

To the extent that executives are worried about being reduced to the role of "low margin dumb pipe providers," this model guarantees it. In this scenario, service providers supply connectivity and other network services to all other retail entities, who have the actual relationship with end users. Also, companies that want to "own the customer relationship" will find this model unattractive, since it abdicates that role.

The "business enabler" model has a mix of advantages and disadvantages. It retains the retail role, implying both higher sales, marketing and customer support costs, but also higher gross revenue potential and higher margins for those retail services. But this model also includes sale of infrastructure services to third parties, on a wholesale basis.

That means there is inherently a possibility of channel conflict, as the service provider essentially competes with its wholesale customers in the retail market.

The experience creator model is the closest to today's model, where a service provider sells retail services to end users. It offers the least dramatic changes to the current model, but arguably also offers the smallest chance of dramatic changes in overhead and operating costs.

The global multimarketer role is most logical for larger, well-capitalized firms with some ability to leverage a strong brand in additional markets. This strategy probably is not viable for small national firms with weak brand name assets and small market capitalization. This strategy also is likely to prove attractive only for firms with the ability to provide mobile services.

Does Device Screen Size Affect Data Consumption? Yes and No.


Is there a relationship between screen size and data consumption? One might think the answer clearly is “yes,” based on the difference between typical data consumption for smart phones and that of PCs.

Some studies of heavy smart phone users show consumption of perhaps 1.3 Gbytes. Other studies show average smart phone data consumption might already be up to 2 Gbytes. Still others suggest typical consumption runs between 600 Mbytes and 1.2 Gbytes a month. But smart phones on 3G networks might still consume a few hundred megabytes a month.

But PC users consume more data than tablet users or smart phone users. So it is reasonable enough to argue there is a relationship between screen size and data consumption.

Device Usage Growth, MBytes per Month
Device Type
2012
2017
Non-smart phone
6.8
31
M2M Module
64
330
Smart phone
342
2,660
4G Smart phone
1,302
5,114
Tablet
820
5,387
Laptop
2,503
5,731
Source: Cisco VNI Mobile Forecast, 2013

But there are nuances. As screen sizes get bigger, people consume considerably more data, at least when connected using a Wi-Fi network, a study by OpenSignal suggests.

The study also suggests that when connected using the mobile network, mobile device screen size actually does not have much impact on the amount of data consumed.

For example, data use over Wi-Fi doubles from a device with a six inches square surface area screen (like a Galaxy Ace) to a device with a nine inches square screen (like a Galaxy SIII).

On the other hand, there is only a weak correlation between screen size and data use over a mobile network connection. What this suggests it that people broadly use their mobile phones in the same way when on the move. Screen size does not change behavior.

Behavior does seem to change when larger screen devices have access to a Wi-Fi connection.  As screen sizes get bigger, people consume considerably more data.

SCREEN SIZE VS DATA USE OVER A WI-FI CONNECTION

Emerging Markets Take Lead for Smart Phone Growth

Global smart phone growth now is driven, in terms of volume, by buyers in emerging markets. 
In total, developing markets will contribute 70 percent to 80 percent of the growth in 2013. 





The BRIIC  (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia and China markets) will drive much of the volume growth in the global market in 2013 and beyond.  



China likely  became the leading country-level market for smartphone shipments in 2012, moving ahead of the the United States,


By 2016, India and Brazil also will have entered the ranks of the top-five  country markets for smart phone shipments. India will be the third largest smart phone market by 2017.

But those emerging markets will require low-cost devices, in the sub-US$50 range, IDC estimates.

NPD DisplaySearch forecasts that l
ow-cost smartphone shipments will double every year from 2010 to 2016, increasing from 4.5 to 311 million.






Skype Users Consume 2 Billion Minutes a Day

Skype users now use two billion minutes a day. It's difficult to estimate how much of that usage represents cannibalization of international traffic or messaging. Not all of that usage would have occurred, were Skype unavailable.

But much of the usage does represent a shift of existing usage from the public network (cannibalizes existing demand) and some represents avoided usage usage (minutes of use that would have been added to public networks, but was shifted to Skype instead).

International Long Distance Traffic Growth, Carriers vs. Skype wheres_the_minutes.png

Source: TeleGeography

According to TeleGeography, international long distance traffic grew four percent in 2011, to 438 billion minutes. 
That growth rate was less than one-third of the industry’s long-run historical average of 13 percent annual growth. 

Mobile Commerce is Getting Bigger, Perhaps On Small Transactions

gSome 29 percent of U.S. mobile users already have used their smart phones to make a purchase, according to Business Insider

You might argue that most of those purchases are relatively small transactions, and you would be right. 

But that might be the point. Lots of small transactions, conducted by lots of people, wind up representing large amounts of transaction value. 

Bank of America predicts $67.1 billion in revenue from smart phone and tablet retail purchasing by European and U.S. shoppers in 2015.

Mobile Commerce Users and Usage (4Q10-2Q12)

Directv-Dish Merger Fails

Directv’’s termination of its deal to merge with EchoStar, apparently because EchoStar bondholders did not approve, means EchoStar continue...