Apple and AT&T are Borrowing Money to Pay Dividends

In an unorthodox move that reflects relatively low interest rates and the high tax rate on bringing cash from overseas accounts back to the United States, Apple says it will begin to borrow money to fund share buybacks and a higher dividend. 

AT&T is doing so as well. In 2012, AT&T dividend payments were nearly $4 billion more than its free cash flow. And AT&T sees free cash flow being some $5 billion lower in 2013. Something has to give, some would say. 

In 2012, AT&T spent $12.8 billion to buy back shares, and another $10 billion to pay dividends. Company-wide, AT&T increased long-term debt by $5 billion in 2012. 

Given the super-low interest rates on corporate debt, there is an argument to be made for using debt to fund either share repurchases or dividends. Some might not agree it is a terribly good argument, though. 

Apple iPad Sales Growth Rate to Drop by an Order of Magnitude

No matter what results Apple turns in for the first quarter of 2013, controversy will swirl around the company and its fortunes. A loss of several hundred billion in market capitalization will do that.

At least according to eMarketer, the order of magnitude projected slowing of iPad sales in the U.S. market is one worry. 

Observers are looking for the next big thing from Apple, and there is growing concern about just how disruptive the next product category can be. 

Some worry that Apple does not promise "new products" until the fall of 2013. Some would say that is a long time in the consumer technology business. On the other hand, if Apple is planning an assault on entirely new categories, getting it right is important. 

If you have a hard time imagining a "magical" TV or wearable computer, you probably are not alone. It has been a while since Apple introduced a product that flopped, like Newton, or simply has failed to capture the imagination (Apple TV). 

What comes next might be quite important, and it will be important that Apple gets it right. It seems hard to believe a "new and improved iPhone" is going to do it. 

ESPN could cost $20 a Month, A La Carte

ESPN could cost subscribers $20 monthly if cable operators break up programming bundles and offer smaller packages of networks, Liberty Media Chairman John Malone John Malone speculates.

That estimate illustrates the reasons why a la carte access to video networks would not necessarily be more affordable for video subscribers, compared to what they already pay, in every instance. If a typical viewer watches a dozen channels, each costing about $5 a la carte, monthly bills would still amount to $60, if no expensive sports programming were offered. 

Add in ESPN and monthly bills climb to about $80. That would not necessarily represent a smaller sum than many subscribers now pay. 

Global Internet Access Speeds Up 25% in a Year, Peak Speeds Up 35%

Year-over-year, average global Internet access speeds grew by 25 percent, with nine of the top 10 countries also demonstrating growth. In fact, only the Netherlands (3.3 percent), Hong Kong (5.4 percent) and Japan (19 percent) reported growth below 20 percent between 2011 and 2012.

Year-over-year, global average peak connection speeds grew 35 percent, Akamai reports. 

Quarter-over-quarter, the global average connection speed rose five percent to 2.9 Mbps. A total of 98 countries/regions that qualified for inclusion saw average connection speeds increase from the third quarter of 2012, ranging from 0.1 percent growth in the Netherlands and Luxembourg to 23 percent growth in Côte d'Ivoire.

Global average peak connection speeds enjoyed a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4.6 percent to 16.6 Mbps. Hong Kong again claimed the highest peak connection speed at 57.5 Mbps, a rise of 6.2 percent from last quarter. 

Global broadband (>4 Mbps) and high-speed broadband (>10 Mbps) adoption improved by 2.7 and 2.1 percent respectively for the quarter. Global broadband adoption rates rose slightly to 42 percent, while high-speed broadband was 11 percent.

Mobile Money Has Implications for Commerce, Not Just Banking

In 2001, SMART Money in the Philippines, run by SMART Communications, a wireless telecom, was the one and only mobile payment system operating in the world. By 2006, there were 10 such systems. Today there are more than 150, in both the developed and emerging worlds, and 90 more are on the drawing board in the emerging world alone, according to Knowledge@Wharton and Ernst and Young. 

Today, nearly 20 percent of Kenya’s gross domestic product moves through M-PESA, the nation’s mobile-money system operated by Safaricom, its leading mobile network. 

Also, more than half of Kenya’s 22 million adults have M-PESA accounts, twice as many as have bank accounts. Most of those transactions are used to send money from urban areas to recipients in rural areas. 

Moreover, there is evidence that all those new users also are spurring the spread of ;hysical banking facilities as well.  For example, between 2005 and 2010 the number of bank branches in Kenya doubled (from 500 to 1,000), a growth that many attribute to pressure from M-PESA. 

International remittances are another area where mobile service providers have gotten into the "mobile money" business. Airtel Money, which is available in 11 countries in Africa and the Middle East, enables its 15 million users send and receive minutes of airtime, and trade those minutes for money. 

According to the Bank’s Global Financial Inclusion Database, there are 20 nations in the world where more than 10 percent of the population has used mobile money in the past year. As The Economist noted in analyzing this data, 15 of those countries are in Africa.

Potential customers for mobile money include the 1.8 billion people who, according to the World Bank, have a mobile phone but no bank account.  

The remittance market is about $400 billion a year globally through formal channels and, it’s been estimated, about $1 trillion through formal and informal channels. 



In developed economies, where banking is not a problem, as such, other values will drive mobile money, in particular the value of data about who is buying, what and where they are buying. In other cases, "owning the customer relationship" might be the value. 

Consumers, Businesses Boosted Technology Spending 35% Over the Last Year

Individuals and households report at least a 35 percent increase in spending on consumer electronics products over the past 12 months, according to the latest Consumer Electronics Association report on the consumer electronics market. 

But consumer sentiment is weakening. That would normally lead to lower spending, overall. The issue is whether technology spending will diverge from that pattern, as might be the case. Apple is a big part of the story. 

AT&T has a Problem: Dividends Exceed Cash Flow

AT&T undoubtedly will announce higher earnings per share, year over year, for the first quarter of 2013.

But there is trouble brewing. In 2012, AT&T dividend payments were nearly $4 billion more than its free cash flow. And AT&T sees free cash flow being some $5 billion lower in 2013. Something has to give. 

The problems largely are attributable to the fixed network segment, which accounts for roughly 47 percent of the company's total revenues.  From 2008 to 2012, the fixed network segment's revenues declined from $67.9 billion to $63.5 billion to $61.2 billion to $60.1 billion to $59.6 billion in past years. 

Free cash flow also might have peaked in 2012, when AT&T reported $19.4 billion of FCF. In 2013, AT&T forecasts free cash flow of a bit over $14 billion, a level more consistent with 2010 and 2011 when FCF was $15.7 billion and $14.6 billion, respectively.

In 2012, AT&T spent $12.8 billion to buy back shares, and another $10 billion to pay dividends. Company-wide, AT&T increased long-term debt by $5 billion in 2012. You do the math.