Monday, October 7, 2013

Are LG, Samsung "Curved Display" Smart Phones Like "Smart Watches"?

It's fair to say there is quite a bit of debate about whether the first generation of smart watches we now are seeing is interesting, much less a big or disruptive market. 

It probably is way too early to conclude much of anything, as even other very popular consumer and digital technologies had very little adoption in the first year or two. 

Now smart phones with curved displays appear to be coming as well. That innovation might not have great impact initially, either. And again, it will be too early to tell much of anything, at first.

Curved handset displays appear to be coming from LG Electronics and Samsung Electronics. as curved screens have appeared on TV sets as well. Apart from aesthetics, it is not so clear what the advantages are. 

Curved screens sometimes are used by really large movie theater screens, in part to "focus" more light toward the audience, and in part to reduce optical distortions when using certain projection lenses.

There's also a potential "naturalness" to an image that has every part equidistant to your eyeballs. But that is largely an advantage limited to small spots, when in front of a 
very large screen


But perhaps the most notable benefit is the ability to fill a massive percentage of a viewer's field of view, in some seats, where an image wraps around the viewer. 

It is not clear that such an advantage is possible using a small screen. 

And that might be an issue to be overcome, if either smart watches or curved screen devlices are to gain traction. What is the advantage? 

In the future, if and when very-flexible, thin screens are available, what other form factors might be conceivable? And how thin, how flexible and how cheap would such displays have to be to create lots of new value? We will likely find out first in the business-to-business markets, for reasons of cost. 

Sunday, October 6, 2013

PC and Tablet Markets are Distinct, Even if We Don't Track Them That Way

PCs are for work, tablets appear to be for mostly everything else. A survey by IDC suggests that only 8.7 percent of tablet buyers want to use the tablet as a replacement for their laptops.

The IDC study also found that 58.5 percent of respondents bought a tablet to use in addition to a laptop, and not as a replacement.

Those findings also suggest that as many as 90 percent of buyers acquire tablets for reasons having little to do directly with PCs. In other words, people are buying tablets like they buy smart phones and MP3 players--to use for intrinsic reasons--and not as a substitute for a PC.

Despite that, we probably will continue to see tablets tracked as part of the PC market.


Why Do Mobile Operators Run Retail Stores?

Why do mobile service providers operate retail outlets, when fixed network telcos and cable or satellite operators tend not to do so? Dish Network, which owns Blockbuster, is an exception in that regard.


Cablevision Systems bought the Wiz chain of consumer electronics stores in 1998 primarily because it believed those venues could showcase and boost sales of Cablevision services. It did not work. One might note that lots of “telcos” operate retail outlets, but those are mostly mobile focused stores.

So why do fixed networek video, voice and Internet access services seem not to feature use of  retail stores? The simple answer is “cost of sales.”

That pattern also can be found for other services such as water, electricity and natural gas. One is tempted to argue that the “not sold in retail stores” approach stems from the current monopoly or past monopoly conditions under which those businesses operated.

Under monopoly conditions, there is no need to “sell at retail,” since suppliers can assume consumers will have incentives to find the supplier, and quickly, whenever occupying a dwelling. Everybody quickly learns that “you call the company” to activate service at a new location.

That obviously works for products that are absolutely, or relatively, commodities, with a binary (on or off) character.

There are cost of sales issues as well.

As business-to-business products and services are sold direct to large accounts, using channel partners for small and mid-sized businesses, so consumer communications and entertainment services are sold using media (Websites, print, radio and television media) or contact centers (phone, email).

Consumer businesses of the service provider type generally rely on mass media for marketing and then fulfillment methods that include telephone and Web ordering.

Still, some would note that, for most prepaid mobile operators, retail stores account for between 50 and 80 percent of their sales, and also serve a vital role as service centers.

One therefore might be tempted to say that retail outlets are necessary in the mobile space because the purchase is complex and highly personal.

There are devices to select, application, usage plans (single user and shared plans) and “what do you want to do?” questions that are not simple to convey using mass media or even online outlets in some cases.

Beyond that, the mobile phone arguably is the most personal device any consumer uses. Under such conditions, the ability to touch and feel the device arguably is crucial to the purchase decision.

That might be increasingly true for other products as well, ranging from tablets and music players to some PCs.

It is hard to remember now, but Apple’s launch of Apple retail stores was highly controversial back in 2001, at a time when Apple’s lead product was the Macintosh line of PCs, and had three percent market share (sales) on a five percent installed base of PCs.

Financial analysts worried about the impact on Apple profit margins. Other channel partners (retailers) were worried about the new competition. Some just argued Apple would never create enough revenue to cover the expense.

The industry had seen computer retailer bankruptcies, which probably did not increase confidence.

Given the decision to set up shop in high-rent districts in Manhattan, Boston, Chicago, and Jobs's hometown of Palo Alto, Calif., the leases for Apple's stores could cost $1.2 million a year each, argued David A. Goldstein, president of researcher Channel Marketing Corp.

Since PC retailing gross margins are normally 10 percent or less, Apple would have to sell $12 million a year per store to pay for the space. Gateway does about $8 million annually at each of its Country Stores, Goldstein argued at the time.

In the background, PC sales also were dropping. But Apple had its reasons for launching its own stores. For starters, when a firm only represents three percent of sales, it is hard to get shelf space or sales support from retailers.

That made it harder for Apple to expose and showcase its products, since many consumers might find it hard to even find a store selling Apple products. The retail computing landscape was ruled by a handful of giants that controlled which products were featured, where and how.

The system wasn't working for Apple, so In 1998, the company began pulling out of several of these stores, including Best Buy, Circuit City, and Sears, to puts its focus into a "store within a store" concept it had with retailer CompUSA.

In early 1999, Best Buy actually dropped the iMac line, after refusing Apple’s condition that Best Buy stock all eight colors of the iMac.  Sears, Roebuck stopped selling Apple products because of inconsistent and unpredictable sales volumes.

The theory was that in the new Apple stores, buyers would be able to experience Apple products in a controlled environment that was made separate from the sea of PCs, laptops, and gadgets from other vendors. Similar efforts can still be found in places like Best Buy.

But these "store within a store" concepts pitted Apple's products against others in an environment where potential buyers would walk just a few feet to go look at what others were offering. Hence the attraction of the branded Apple stores.

The concept was not original. Sony had launched its own retail stores Gateway had launched its own branded retail stores earlier, but also had to close those 27 stores. Gateway also had pioneered the “store-within-a-store” arrangement with OfficeMax.

And Apple almost took another route: launching Apple-branded cyber cafes . In 1996, Apple was working with the Landmark Entertainment Group and Mega Bytes International to create cyber cafes in Los Angeles, London, Paris, New York, Tokyo, and Sydney, Australia. There visitors would be able to surf the Web, grab a snack, and use Apple's latest hardware and software.

In the last few days of 1997, the cybercafe idea was quietly abandoned.

Microsoft launched its own line of retail stores in 2009.

The point is that highly personal and complicated products might require a retail store environment, not just for original sale but for follow-on advice and support.






Saturday, October 5, 2013

"We’ve Been Told to Make Life as Difficult for People as We Can"

Lots of people who work for the U.S. federal government get paid for helping people, like those who work for the Park Service, chaplains, doctors, nurses and physical therapists, for example. 

That can create tension when a budget impasse temporarily forces them to do the opposite, namely get in the way. 

 “We’ve been told to make life as difficult for people as we can. It’s disgusting,” says one park ranger. If you know people in the Park Service, you know how that will grate with their values. 

One thinks of the Normandy cemetary in France, which is barring visitors, even though, as an outdoor venue, it need not be affected fundamentally by any temporary funding squabbles. Come Sunday, we'll find out whether Catholic priests will be arrested for celebrating mass, a requirement of their calling and a necessity for those receiving the benefits of the mass. 

We'll get through it. But some of us can't help marveling at the pettiness and apparent vindictiveness of some policies, like keeping people from viewing open air monuments, visiting cemeteries and the like. 

In Virginia, some privately-owned institutions have been affected. Private facilities. Funded by private donations. Petty. And yes, "disgusting."

Steve Jobs an Interesting Mix of "Leader" and "Manager"

The terms “leader” and “manager,” like the terms “leadership” and “management,” often are used interchangeably, and should not be, as they are very different things. They might even be incompatible.


The classic example is combat leadership in a small team and bureaucratic management of the whole army, navy or air force. In combat, leadership is not so much exercised by the leader as assented to by the followers. In other words, you might say leaders are made by their followers.


Managers and executives, on the other hand, never are really made by their followers. They hold positions or offices that confer authority. Bureaucratic authority, the holding of an office, is not the same thing as leadership.


Since the death of Steve Jobs in 2011, many have wondered whether Apple could sustain its rate of innovation and creativity without what some would say was Jobs as leader, not manager.


Most would likely agree that Steve Jobs was inspirational and capable of inspiring followers, without being in the classic sense a good manager. In fact, everybody would agree that Jobs was an incredibly poor manager of people, in a traditional sense.


That leads some to create false dichotomies between leadership and management. Find a large enterprise that is poorly managed and you will find a company in financial trouble. But “great” companies, though depending on good management, also tend to have some larger element of leadership as well.


The somewhat related tension between company founders and later managers is similar. Both leadership and management play some roles, sometimes at different stages of a firm’s life cycle or within different units of an organization. If possible, many would say a good leader and manager is the best of all possible worlds, if somewhat rare.


Some might even say Apple succeeded despite some management weaknesses on Jobs’ part.


With the caveat that the balance could well be different in a fast-moving Internet business compared to a factory, a classic statement might be that “the manager’s job is to plan, organize and coordinate. The leader’s job is to inspire and motivate.”


Management professor Warren Bennis has written that:
– The manager administers; the leader innovates.
– The manager is a copy; the leader is an original.
– The manager maintains; the leader develops.
– The manager focuses on systems and structure; the leader focuses on people.
– The manager relies on control; the leader inspires trust.
– The manager has a short-range view; the leader has a long-range perspective.
– The manager asks how and when; the leader asks what and why.
– The manager has his or her eye always on the bottom line; the leader’s eye is on the horizon.
– The manager imitates; the leader originates.
– The manager accepts the status quo; the leader challenges it.
– The manager is the classic good soldier; the leader is his or her own person.
– The manager does things right; the leader does the right thing.


It’s great set of comparisons. And like all good generalizations, the balance in the real world will be more fuzzy. But most observers might agree that, taking all the comparisons into account, Steve Jobs was an interesting mix of those traits.


Some of the secrecy, control and obsession with detail might mark those elements of the Jobs style that were not so visionary, and more managerial. Nor did Jobs ever ignore the practical, detailed parts of product development for long-term vision.


Still, on balance, Jobs tips the scale more on the “leader” then “manager” parts of those examples. Nor could most large enterprises survive and thrive without good management. But people tend to recognize “leadership” when they encounter it.

It is possible to argue that companies need much better leadership without dismissing the equal need for good management.

Nokia and Microsoft Mobile OS now are Identical

2013_09_03_MN_MASMicrosoft's hopes now ride on Nokia. The magnitude of the challenge is Nokia's inability to break into the ranks of the top-five smart phone suppliers in the U.S. market. 
Nokia faces the same problem in the broader global market. 
It has no share distinguishable from Microsoft's mobile operating system. 
To be sure, proponents of other operating systems continue to hope they will be able to gain traction in the global smart phone market. 
But the problem remains: without a robust developer ecosystem, it is tough for an OS to gain significant share. But without significant share, a robust developer ecosystem is hard to create. 
Top Smartphone OEMs
3 Month Avg. Ending Aug. 2013 vs. 3 Month Avg. Ending May 2013
Total U.S. Smartphone Subscribers Age 13+
Source: comScore MobiLens
Share (%) of Smartphone Subscribers
May-13Aug-13Point Change
Total Mobile Subscribers100.0%100.0%N/A
Apple39.2%40.7%1.5
Samsung23.0%24.3%1.3
HTC8.7%7.4%-1.3
Motorola7.8%6.9%-0.9
LG6.7%6.7%0.0

Sprint Challenges Include Managing Expectations

A problem all public companies have is the tension between managing for long-term growth and quarterly performance, a problem SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son and Sprint CEO Dan Hesse will continue to face over the next year, and possibly a couple of years.

For starters, Son says it might take that long for Sprint to achieve its objective of the highest customer account gains in the U.S. mobile business. Sprint also will face tough scrutiny from investors who worry about market share growth at the expense of profit margin, and Sprint almost certainly will take that tack.

That is what SoftBank did to take leadership in customer additions in the Japanese mobile market. Assuming Sprint does the same, investors and analysts are certain to loudly voice concern.

In fact, Sprint's compensation policy now ties executive bonuses to subscriber growth rather than revenue growth. Companies tend to produce the results they reward. And Sprint needs to change its organic growth trajectory, as Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile US are outperforming Sprint.



Like it or not, that is likely what will happen. Sprint will launch aggressive acquisition campaigns, where the value-price relationship will be a key weapon. Average revenue per subscriber or average revenue per account likely will fall. Analysts will object, worry and dismiss Sprint equity.

It is possible SoftBank might try and mitigate some of those problems by working on the value side of the offer, instead of the price.

Since 2007, SoftBank has been Japan's leading seller of smart phones, and many would attribute SoftBank’s success to its offering of more data options for smart phones, tablets, laptops and vehicles, in addition to its pricing attack.

One advantage SoftBank-owned Sprint will not have is an exclusive on the Apple iPhone.

Some would argue Softbank managed to take so much market share in Japan because Softbank had iPhone exclusivity in Japan for the first few years, much like AT&T had in the United States.

The issue is how much SoftBank might be able to do in the area of technology exclusives or distinctiveness.

Some say Sprint’s unlimited smart phone data offers, recently reaffirmed by Sprint, will eventually help.

One might also argue that when Sprint finally does get its Long Term Evolution footprint up to parity with Verizon and AT&T, Sprint might be able to leverage it spectrum holdings from Clearwire to do in the mobile business what Google Fiber has done in the fixed access business, namely reset customer expectations around what an “in line with the market” includes.

In other words, even as Google Fiber is able to sell to a fragment of the U.S. fixed broadband market, it is steadily recasting consumer expectations about speed and price.

Sprint might be planning something similar. And that effort might well hinge on how fast Sprint can build out its whole LTE network nationally.

Verizon has nearly completed its LTE deployment, covering nearly 500 markets. AT&T’s LTE coverage is about 400 U.S. markets. Even T-Mobile US, the last national mobile provider to begin building an LTE network, reaches 154 markets.



But it would be reasonable to expect a period of turmoil for Sprint as an equity, not as a business. With a shift of U.S. mobile account growth to prepaid offers, generally with value pricing, both Sprint and T-Mobile US are going to have to work on the value parts of their offers.

One might argue AT&T already is setting up for that struggle by buying Leap Wireless. And that will leave Verizon Wireless will a big challenge. Positioned as the premium provider in the market, Verizon will face a common problem in the communications business: hold its prices and lose share, or drop price to keep share.

Sprint will face an investor relations challenge until it is able to launch its renewed U.S. market assault. Then Sprint likely also will face new criticism about the impact of that attack on profit margins.

Should Sprint succeed, that also means Verizon and AT&T could face more pressure on the investor relations front as well, as they respond. Of course, some might argue there is a possibility Verizon and AT&T will not respond. Some of us would never bet money on that outcome.

Will Generative AI Follow Development Path of the Internet?

In many ways, the development of the internet provides a model for understanding how artificial intelligence will develop and create value. ...