Cloud, Mobile, IoT "Most Important" Technologies Next 3-5 Years, CxOs Say

Irrespective of role, C-level executives surveyed by the IBM Institute for Business Value see cloud computing and mobile solutions, plus Internet of Things, as the most-important  technologies they must deal with over the next three to five years.

source: IBM Institute for Business Value

Competition From "Outside" Now Matters More than Competition from "Inside"

Since 2013, more top executives have been worried about competition from “outside” the domain than from competitors already in the domain, IBM studies have found.

While 29 percent of C-level executives surveyed by IBM expected “more competition” from contestants “within the same industry,” fully 54 percent expected the greatest danger from competitors “in other industries.

Uber--with a completely different business model--is an example of the sort of disruptive outsider threats C-level executives now worry about.

Telecom service providers already are in the second decade of competition from the likes of Skype and Google, which first were concerns because new services from those sort of firms hollowed out the telecom business model, shifting value to itself and away from legacy managed services, essentially turning telcos into providers of simple connectivity.

Over time, Google Fiber has emerged as a direct competitor in the U.S. Internet access business and somewhat less directly or significantly in the form of Google-sponsored municipal Wi-Fi.

Globally, the pattern might be different. When executives from Google and Facebook talk about Google’s Project Loon and Facebook’s unmanned aerial vehicles, the emphasis always is on a wholesale or backhaul role, with retail Internet access supplied by mobile or other Internet service provider partners.

In other domains, “channel conflict” has been an issue as well. Microsoft competes directly with other suppliers of gaming systems and tablets. Amazon markets its own tablets and e-readers, and briefly marketed its own smartphone.

Google has marketed its own Nexus tablets and smartphones for a time. And now there is speculation that Nexus has essentially delivered most of the value Google originally hoped to achieve with a “showcase” device featuring native Android capabilities.

There are rumors that Google is pondering another round of innovation that could be ignited by a branded, manufactured and significantly marketed smartphone.

The concern about competition from “outside” traditional industry boundaries is well placed. Such new forms of competition are a hallmark of development in formerly-monopolized industries that become deregulated.

It now appears technology-driven attacks are an even bigger development. The boundaries of competition are becoming ambiguous,” said Yong Eum Ban, CFO, JoongAng Media Network, South Korea.

Two years ago, executives thought new rivals were as likely to come from their own industry as from others. Today, they’re more worried about outsiders invading their core markets.

The concern is well placed. Though telcos and cable TV firms might face off against each other in many of their core markets, both industries face more long-term threats from “outsiders.”

Skype and Google Fiber were just the start.

T-Mobile US Doubles LTE Data Buckets

T-Mobile US has made what it calls “the biggest update ever to the company’s wildly popular Simple Choice plan.”

T-Mobile US is doubling usage allotments for Simple Choice plans.

Simple Choice customers still start with one line at just $50 a month for unlimited data, talk and text on T-Mobile’s nationwide 4G LTE network. Now users get 2 GB of 4G LTE data, twice the previous amount, on each line.

As before, customers can still add a second line for $30 a month.  Additional lines up to 12 are still only $10 per month, but each now comes with 2 GB of 4G LTE data.

T-Mobile’s new “Family Match” plan allows users on the plans to add an extra 4 GB of 4G LTE data, including mobile hotspot data, for just $10 more a month on each line, up to a total of 10GB per line.

For families that would rather customize their data by line, extra data is just $15 a month for each 4 GB, down from $20 a month for 4GB.

"Binge On:" 24 Streaming Services Available on T-Mobile US Plans With No Hit to Usage Buckets

“Binge On” is the new mobile video streaming plan from T-Mobile US that allows customers to stream Netflix, HBO and other services without deducting usage from their data plans.

Beginning Nov. 15, 2015, video streams free at T-Mobile US subscribers of HBO, Hulu, Netflix, SHOWTIME, Sling TV, STARZ, WatchESPN; 24 streaming services in total.

The feature is available to all current and new Simple Choice customers on qualifying plans at no extra cost.

Binge On works, in part, by coding and delivering video at “DVD quality.” Crackle, Encore, ESPN, Fox Sports, Fox Sports Go, HBO Now, HBO Go, Hulu, MLB, Movieplex, NBC Sports, Netflix, Sling TV, Sling Box, SHOWTIME, STARZ, T-Mobile TV, Univision Deportes, Ustream, Vessel, Vevo, VUDU presently are part of the service.

T-Mobile is also including Verizon’s Go90 and AT&T’s DirecTV streaming services in Binge On.

Perhaps it is worth noting that the plan does not "treat all bits equally." Content providers have to meet T-Mobile US technical rules. But as often is the case, unequal treatment has a clear consumer benefit.

Will OTT Video Churn be Higher, the Same or Lower than Linear Video?

Will churn rates for over the top video services be higher, lower or equivalent to churn rates for linear video?

New surveys by Parks Associates might suggest OTT churn is quite low, at least for the largest providers.

Over a year’s time, just three percent of U.K. broadband households cancelled a subscription to an OTT video service.

In the United States, perhaps nine percent of U.S. broadband households cancelled, apparently over a year’s time. Other studies by Parks Associates have found annual churn rates of perhaps four percent annually.

Those are very low churn rates for any consumer service. Mobile service providers tend to experience between 12 percent and 18 percent annual churn, for example.

Linear video churn varies by provider. DirecTV churn might be less than 1.5 percent per month, or about 18 percent annually.

Granted, churn rates for OTT providers vary dramatically. Netflix seems to have low churn. Smaller providers seem to have much-higher churn rates.

source: nscreenmedia

Some might suspect that over the top video streaming churn is likely to be higher than churn for linear video services.

That would not be an illogical assumption. Churn rates tend to be higher for new products that consumers have not used before, in new markets where newer products get launched or changed fairly frequently.

Linear video is a well-understood product; OTT video not so much.

Ease of switching likewise might encourage users to switch between services. Some in the content community also note that the way content is released might even encourage such switching behavior. When a popular new series is released “all at once,” that can provide incentives for users to buy the service, watch the episodes and then churn back off.

Long-term trends are tough to assess at the moment, as the market remains nascent, in many respects. But there is at least some reason to believe that OTT linear video churn, long term, might not differ too much from linear video trends. Near term, churn might be fairly high, for services other than Netflix.

AT&T GigaPower Expands to 23 New Cities

AT&T has launched its GigaPower 1 Gbps Internet access services in the Atlanta, :Chicago,  Nashville, Miami and Orlando metropolitan markets, representing 23 cities, at prices of $70 a month or $110 a month.

Internet of Things = Growth for Mobile Operators

In a word, the Internet of Things is strategic for the mobile industry because it represents “growth.”

Once every human being who wants to use a mobile phone is doing so, after every phone is equipped for Internet access, after nearly every customer uses the Internet, after usage-driven charges have grown, what could possibly drive the next big wave of revenue growth?

Emphasize the word “big.” In a business where revenue is measured in hundreds of billions of dollars, modest new markets do not move the needle. Only revenue sources driven by big new markets will have the scale to matter.

Assuming such concerns are correct, IoT is big enough to move the needle.

Mor than 50 billion IoT devices are expected to be connected with as much as US$8.9 trillion in annual revenue by the year 2020.

According to GSMA studies and forecasts, mobile  IoT communications are predicted to account for over 10 percent of the global market by 2020. That should represent about $45 billion in service revenue annually.

source: GSMA

source: GSMA