Identity Fraud Grows 52% in U.K.

Identity fraud is a growing issue for U.K. Wi-Fi users, Cifas data suggests. Identity fraud issues for users 30 and under rose 52 percent in 2015. 

Just under 24,000 (23,959) people aged 30 and under were victims of identity fraud, according to figures from the U.k. fraud prevention service. 

Cifas recorded 15,766 ID fraud victims in the under 30 bracket in 2014, and more than double the 11,000 victims in the same age bracket in 2010. 

Manchester and London witnessed the biggest increases in ID theft last year. 

IoT Installed Base More than 14 Million Now

source: Ericsson

The installed base of wireless Internet of Things (IoT) devices in industrial automation reached 14.3 million in 2015, according to Berg Insight.

The number of wireless IoT devices in automation networks will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 27.7 percent to reach 62.0 million by 2021, powered by a number of wireless networks, including Wi-Fi and Bluetooth, the most widespread technologies in factory automation.

Mobile networks more typically are used for remote monitoring and backhaul communication between plants, Berg Insight says. It is highly possible that a great percentage--perhaps a preponderant majority--of IoT connections actually will use Wi-Fi or Bluetooth connections, not LoRa or mobile connections, through 2021.

source: IoT Analytics

LoRa Tariffs 10X Cheaper than LTE-Based Prices?

SK Telecom price plans for LoRaWAN-based Internet of Things services sheds at least some light on retail pricing for all such services, including rival services based on use of mobile networks. Specifically, LoRa services are an order of magnitude lower than comparable LTE network connections, according to a report by the Korea Times.

That pricing differential suggests why many tier-one mobile service providers will try to create additional roles within various IoT ecosystems, instead of supplying access services.

The “Band IoT” plans come in six different tiers based on the amount of usage, from Band IoT 35 (approx. US$0.3) priced at KRW 350 to Band IoT 200 priced at KRW 2,000 (US$1.75).

Sigfox makes the same observation about LTE-based IoT access being 10 times more costly than Sigfox.

Will RCS "Save" Mobile Messaging or Boost Google Back into Messaging Platform Contention?

It remains to be seen whether Google’s support of Rich Communications Services (RCS), using Jibe, can create a big new role for Google in the messaging platform space. Also unclear is how well RCS will protect mobile operator revenues in messaging.

RCS currently represents 32 percent of the total carrier messaging revenue globally, according to ABI Research, increasing to 72 percent by 2021.

RCS global revenue is projected to grow from $23.6 billion in 2015 to $40.1 billion in 2021, not enough to halt a decline in service provider global messaging revenue, which will decline about four percent between 2016 and 2021, ABI Research projects.

To the extent that RCS succeeds, it will likely be driven by Android users, as iPhones do not support the standard natively, while  most smartphones globally use Android. And “success” might be a matter of preventing further decline, not mobile operator revenue growth.

source: Analysys Mason

Middle East Africa Public Cloud Market Will Grow 18% in 2016

The public cloud services market in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is projected to grow 18.3 percent in 2016 to total $879.3 million, up from $743.1 million in 2015, according to Gartner analysts

Business process as a service (BPaaS), the largest segment of the cloud services market in MENA, is expected to reach $261.3 million in 2016, a six percent increase from 2015.

The cloud management and security services market is the fastest growth segment, with 2016 revenue to grow 27.5 percent from 2015.

Software as a service (SaaS) is expected to grow 26.6 percent in 2016 to reach a revenue total of $210 million.

MENA Public Cloud Services Forecast (Millions of U.S. Dollars)
	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Cloud Business Process Services (BPaaS)	246.6	261.3	280.1	300.7	323.0	340.2
Cloud Application Services (SaaS)	166.1	210.4	265.6	332.7	411.7	509.8
Cloud Application Infrastructure Services (PaaS)	61.8	77.8	99.9	121.3	142.0	162.8
Cloud System Infrastructure Services (IaaS)	81.1	96.5	115.2	138.1	164.7	197.3
Cloud Management and Security Services	70.8	90.2	113.2	138.8	167.4	195.6
Cloud Advertising	116.6	143.1	193.0	226.4	267.7	319.4
Total	743.1	879.3	1,067.0	1,258.1	1,476.6	1,725.1

source: Gartner

Smart Cities: Not Such a Smart Early Years Investment?

Smart management of traffic and smart parking initiatives will save 4.2 billion man-hours annually by 2021, a new study by Juniper Research predicts. The issue is how such improvements can be effectively monetized, creating tangible revenue streams that supply the incentives for investment and sustainable operations long term.

Smart city revenues are expected increase by almost 14 percent in the coming years, growing to $2 trillion by 2020, research by Arthur D. Little suggests. Of course, as a practical matter, such global forecasts, amalgamating revenue from many different sources, are less relevant for actual firms operating in local markets.

“Today, the majority of smart city investments are flowing into smart grids, reduction of carbon emissions, public broadband (e.g. free Wi-Fi) and building automation,” says Ansgar Schlautmann, Arthur D. Little global head.

Some two million smart parking spaces will be installed globally by 2021, Juniper predicts, providing some of the quantifiable revenue upside.

Additionally, the research found that the smart street lighting market, consisting of micro-controlled LED units and sensors is expected to surge over the next five years, with over half of installed LED fixtures being networked globally by 2021.

Some reduction of municipal utility bills will provide some of the benefits. Additional sensors installed on fixtures enable new services for revenue generation, such as municipal Wi-Fi. In the early years, it hard to see how such apps can sustain the expected investment.

How Long Before IoT Reaches 10% Adoption in Most Markets?

Experience (some might say “history”) is a highly-underrated analytical tool, even if most of us have only a few decades of experience in any single industry or industry segment to draw upon.

Experience would eventually impress upon you that few important new technologies ever develop as fast as observers predict. But for truly important technologies, that lagging adoption in the early days is later matched by adoption that exceeds forecasts. In other words, adoption tends to be non-linear.

All that can be lost when time frames are too compressed: then every innovation seems to have a linear and “rapid adoption” curve. But “decades” to a “couple of decades” and sometimes even “a few decades” is the right timeframe for significant adoption of some ideas and technologies.

Some might predict that the “Internet of Things,” even in the most-advanced industrial segments or vertical application classes, might well take two decades to reach significant adoption, assuming the turn of the century is when the phrase “Internet of Things” happened.

Even that might be too optimistic, as some of us will recall talk of connected vending machines in the 1980s. By that measure we are in the fourth decades of conceptual thinking about what we would now call an IoT application for vending machines.

source: Franz Gilbert

The more complex the ecosystem, the longer it takes. Device adoption tends to happen faster: it is a “simple” matter of large numbers of people buying a tool. When attitudes need to change, and trust established, a decade can pass before 10 percent of people will adopt an important new technology. Use of debit cards and automated teller machines had that character, for example.

Kevin Ashton, many suggest, coined  the phrase Internet of Things in 1999.

The basic concept remains the same: ‘If we had computers that knew everything there was to know about things, using data they gathered without any help from us, we would be able to track and count everything, greatly reducing waste, loss and cost,” he said. “We would know when things needed replacing, repairing or recalling, and whether they were fresh or past their best.”

“In the twentieth century, computers were brains without senses: they only knew what we told them,” Ashton said. “In the twenty-first century, because of the Internet of Things, computers can sense things for themselves.”

The point, should it bear repeating, is that major and successful innovations often take quite a long time to move from conception to mass adoption. As much attention as now gets paid to IoT, we are 16 years out from inception.

Many predict quite substantial diffusion by 2025. That would mean a quarter century from “idea” to “widespread commercial adoption.”

That is not unusual, even if we often point to the rapid adoption of new and fundamental technologies ranging from use of personal computers to use of the Internet.

Consider the automated teller machine, one example of a useful and now ubiquitous technology routinely used by consumers.

ATM card adoption provides one example, where "decades" is a reasonable way of describing adoption of some new technologies, even those that arguably are quite useful.

Debit cards provide another example. It can take two decades for adoption to reach half of U.S. households, for example.  

IoT represents a very-complicated ecosystem, with the sustainable business model being among the developments required to propel further development. Yes, hardware and software development is required. But the speed of that development is propelled by creation of viable business models to support actors making big capital investments to satisfy demand.

Many point out that traffic and parking are the sorts of problems IoT can help solve. All true. The issue is whether--and how fast--business models can develop to fully fund the deployment of the extensive networks and devices (including automobiles) able to take advantage of IoT-enabled transportation and vehicle parking.

source: ICS

All of that likely means that IoT adoption by even 10 percent of actors in an application universe will take longer than most believe. Experience is the teacher, in that regard.