Will V2V Survive Contact with 5G and Wi-Fi?

Automakers and mobile service providers have had differing views about how to supply vehicle-to-vehicle communications, but 5G could settle the matter. Car manufacturers, working with the the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, have been developing V2V communications for about a dozen years.

In fact, V2V proponents have been arguing with Wi-Fi interests about allocation of new unlicensed spectrum in the 5.9-GHz range that is intended to support V2V systems. And mobile carriers have good reason to argue that 5G will be a better choice by the time V2V is supposed to start being widely deployed.

Already, Audi, BMW and Daimler have formed an association with Qualcomm, Huawei, Ericsson, Intel and Nokia to study the potential of 5G networks for vehicle-to-vehicle communications.

In Europe the 5.875 GHz to 5.905 GHz frequency band is set aside for transport safety applications. V2V also is known as VANET (vehicular ad hoc network).

The thing about proposed new network standards is that delay tends to reduce or eliminate relevance, as newer platforms inevitably arise, often the most-powerful new platforms being able to leverage investments already made for some other purpose. So Wi-Fi, created to support in-building local distribution of traffic, now has emerged as a key building block for mobile communications.

Some would argue that V2V now faces too many obstacles to prevail, simultaneously having to fight off the Wi-Fi industry and facing rival platforms offered by the mobile industry, both of which arguably will have deployment economics working in their favor.

High-volume chipsets originally created to support either Wi-Fi or mobility (4G and 5G) can be leveraged to support new vehicular communications, while both Wi-Fi and mobile will have the advantage of in-place networks that have other revenue models. That will make easier the task of creating a vehicle-to-vehicle communications network.

Google's autonomous vehicle research, for example, might suggest that by the time a critical mass of vehicles equipped with the proposed V2V system has had a chance to be created, alternatives will have arisen, especially if those alternatives do not require ubiquity, but can be deployed on a “point” basis, incrementally, as users see value.

Already, some features that V2V might support already are being deployed on vehicles (lane change alerts, automatic braking, automatic parking) that might otherwise be seen as features of a new V2V system.

Given a choice between a proprietary, government-lead system moving slowly and an open, market-pushed alternative that “creeps in” as an “oh by the way” feature of systems with other value, many of us would argue the market-based system wins.

92% to 93% of U.K. Mobile, Internet, Voice Marketing Spend is Wasted

All the effort expended on marketing of mobile, fixed network voice and fixed network internet to small and medium-sized businesses in the United Kingdom might be directed to a potential “switcher” market as small as six percent to seven percent of the entire customer base, in any single year.

In fact, less than 60 percent of all SMBs in the United Kingdom, and between 41 percent and 47 percent of SMB survey respondents have never--never ever--switched from one service provider to another, a survey conducted on behalf of Ofcom found.

Only around 15 percent to 17 percent of respondents reported they had switched service providers in the last two years.

source: Ofcom

That seems an unusually-low amount of churn. Some argue that major mobile operators have annual churn as high as 40 percent.

source: S. Saravanan

Compared to other consumer services, mobile services do seem to have a higher rate of churn, compared to banking or utility services.

source: S. Saravanan

Churn rates in the software as a service business, by way of comparison, also are high, with annual churn rates as high as 58 percent a year in the SMB space.

source: KIssmetrics

Is 5G the "Next Big Thing?"

It is hard to deny the widespread opinion that 5G is the next big thing for a wide number of industries from consumer electronics to telecom; healthcare to transportation. Those hopes are likely to take longer to emerge than many believe. Some are even skeptical that there is any need for 5G, or business models that work. To be sure, there was skepticism about 4G as well

There was, in the case of 3G and 4G, a real element of build it and they will come thinking. In fact, supporters “hoped” that the faster speeds would lead to creation of new applications and revenue streams, even if nobody was sure which apps and revenues sources actually would develop.

In fact, some might argue that cost savings, in the the form of lower costs per bit, was the actual driver of 4G. On the other hand, one might well argue that 3G did succeed in making the mobile web a useful consumer experience, while 4G made consumption of video a useful and widespread consumer reality.

Many would argue the possibility that 5G really will be different, in the sense that it is being purpose built to support internet of things applications, that might not--in fact often do not need--the vast increases in bandwidth 5G will enable. Instead, it is the lower latency that will be the key enabler of some new IoT applications.

Not to be ignored, either, are the other changes in networking that will come with 5G, though logically distinct. Those key trends include network virtualization, which will lead, over time, to lower cost networks and a vast increase in ability to create on-demand bandwidth and specialized network features on a virtual basis.

Also, 5G might be the first mobile network that embraces use of unlicensed spectrum and shared spectrum in an extensive way. In fact, some leading mobile service providers (cable companies and other upstart mobile carriers) will rely heavily on use of unlicensed spectrum to support their business models.  

So 5G might well be the next big thing, because it also is happening at the same time, and building on, network virtualization, while underpinning a huge new potential wave of growth based on smart devices and systems of all types.

For the mobile industry, 5G, it is hoped, will fuel the next great wave of industry growth, beyond services and apps used by people, and based on services and apps used by machines.

Why DirecTV Now Delivered Over a Fixed Wireless Connection Matters

AT&T says it will, in the first half of 2017, conduct a trial in Austin where residential customers can stream DirecTV Now video service over a fixed wireless 5G connection. You might think video is a logical app to test over a fixed wireless link, especially when using new millimeter wave spectrum. It is that, to be sure. But it is more.

The assumption is that if millimeter fixed wireless can handle video, it can handle anything a consumer wants to do, and therefore helps validate the use of fixed wireless for access connections, something AT&T already plans to do on an extensive basis, to serve rural customers.

Keep in mind that AT&T already can use DirecTV for linear TV delivery. DirecTV Now is different, as it is an on-demand service. And that means AT&T's networks have to support single, on-demand streams, rather than supplying what is essentially a multicast DirecTV feed.

The coming millimeter wave spectrum for 5G is very good in terms of bandwidth, not so good in terms of propagation distance. That is why most believe millimeter wave spectrum will work best in dense urban areas. But there always are ways to use beam-forming antennae and other techniques to boost output, and that is likely among the attributes AT&T will want to test.

AT&T expects to have deployed more than 400,000 active fixed wireless links by the end of 2017. By the end of 2020, AT&T plans to reach 1.1 million rural locations using fixed wireless. And most, if not all of those connections might use existing platforms and spectrum, not the new 5G platforms and spectrum, unless the new tests prove otherwise.

That is why the DirecTV Now over 5G tests in Austin are important. They will help validate the business case for using 5G in fixed mode, not only to deliver video, but to support gigabit internet access speeds.

Intel Debuts Global 5G Modem

The new Intel 5G modem is said by Intel to be the first global device, capable of delivering 5G in both sub-6 GHz bands and millimeter wave spectrum in regions including the United States, Europe, Korea and Japan. The modem supports initial 5G spectrum worldwide with one SKU.

It supports the 3.3GHz to 4.2 GHz portion of the sub-6 GHz bands enabling deployments and trials in China and Europe. It also supports 28 GHz, enabling deployments and trials in the United States, Korea and Japan  

The modem comes in 2x2 and 4x4 MIMO (multiple input, multiple output) configurations, including dual-polarization sub-channelization The Intel 5G RFIC (radio frequency integrated circuit) is expected to be available in sample quantities in the first half of 2017. The 5G Modem is expected to be available in sample quantities in the second half of 2017 and full commercial production soon afterwards.

The modem incorporates key 3GPP 5G New Radio technology, including low latency frame structures, advanced channel coding and massive MIMO, Intel says.

BlackBerry Announces New QNX OS for Connected Cars

BlackBerry Limited announced its QNX Software Development Platform 7.0 (QNX SDP 7.0), a 64-bit operating system for the automotive industry and connected cars.

source: Booz and Company, BI Intelligence

AT&T Expects Gigabit Speed at Some Cell Sites in 2017

AT&T 5G Evolution plans for 2017 include an upgrade to 1 Gbps speeds on at least some cell sites on the 4G network. T-Mobile US and Sprint also are touting such speeds on their own 4G networks.

As always, such speeds are possible when carriers use more bandwidth and aggregate channels. AT&T currently is deploying three-way carrier aggregation in select areas, and plan to introduce four-way carrier aggregation as well as LTE-License Assisted Access (LAA) this year.

In the first half of 2017, AT&T also will conduct a trial in Austin where residential customers can stream DirecTV Now video service over a fixed wireless 5G connection.

AT&T says it also has activated its first 5G business customer trial, working with  Intel and Ericsson using millimeter wave spectrum, significantly using unlicensed spectrum.

AT&T also announced plans to team up with Qualcomm Technologies and Ericsson for mobile and fixed wireless trials in the second half of 2017, using the 5G New Radio specification being developed by the industry technology standards group 3GPP.

Those trials will test both mobile and fixed wireless solutions operating in millimeter wave  spectrum in the 28 Ghz and 39 Ghz bands.

AT&T lab trials already are achieving speeds up to 14 Gbps over a wireless connection. The company says, with latency less than 3 milliseconds.

Separately, AT&T says its fiber to the home network has been deployed to four million locations across 46 metros nationwide. More than 650,000 of these locations include apartments and condo units.

By mid-2019 AT&T plans to reach at least 12.5 million locations across 67 metro areas.

AT&T also is testing fixed wireless point-to-point millimeter wave and G.fast technologies, and expects to have deployed more than 400,000 active fixed wireless links by the end of 2017.

By the end of 2020, AT&T plans to reach 1.1 million rural locations using fixed wireless.

The company also is working on Project AirGig, an access platform that operates near, but not over, power lines.