The Solution for "Telcos Can't Innovate"

Whether in the business or consumer segments, tier-one telecom providers tend to agree they must “add value” to their connectivity services (“avoid becoming a dumb pipe”) by “moving up the value chain” (“moving up the stack”). It is a fundamental strategy, for simple reasons. In the Internet era, applications and access are formally separated.

The phrase “over the top” literally refers to the way all apps and services now are delivered, no matter which entity owns the particular apps and services.

The way some of us would describe the strategy is that “you have to own at least some of the apps that flow over your pipes.” In the consumer area, that might mean video services. In the business customer segments, that might mean information technology solutions.

NTT Data, for example, has rolled up a number of IT-providing businesses, becoming a bigger system integrator and information technology consultancy. For example, NTT Data has acquired Dell Services, Keane, Carlisle and Gallagher Consulting Group, Optimal, Intelligroup, Centerstance, giving NTT Data accounts, competencies and staff able to provide IT consulting and technology implementation and support (SAP, Oracle and Salesforce implementation, among other things), on a global basis.

NTT DATA arguably is strongest in healthcare, life sciences, financial services, manufacturing, and public sector verticals.

The oft-noted observation that “telcos are not good at innovation” arguably is largely true, but also less important than we often think. So long as managements do not meddle, acquired assets and people who are free to do their jobs will work. Those assets simply must be allowed to function as they must in the spheres where they operate, even if owned by new telco entities.

In other words, Comcast’s ownership of NBCUniversal assets is not a problem so long as content units are free to produce the best content they can, within the constraints of their business models. IT consultancies in various verticals can win, so long as they are allowed to succeed.

That arguably was more a problem in past decades, when acquired assets often failed because they were essentially bent to the needs of the access or transport business units. These days, there is far-wider recognition that the access and transport business units are there to support the applications units.

OTT Video Offers Telcos Better Business Model

Often, there are multiple reasons for deploying a new technology, none of them contradictory. For example, one might argue that fourth generation Long Term Evolution (4G LTE) was deployed to gain bandwidth advantages or higher speeds. One might also argue LTE made sense because it offered lower cost per bit.

Something similar is developing in the over the top video streaming space. OTT streaming most often is touted because it offers lower cost or more choice (on demand rather than linear access). For some service providers, a better business model now seems to be driving thinking.

AT&T, for example, acquired DirecTV for a number of reasons, including the ability to achieve a lower cost structure for cost of goods, a way to supply linear video nationwide without immediate local network upgrades and as a platform for OTT video as well. That lead to DirecTV Now, the streaming video service AT&T has launched.

Now other fixed network telcos, including CenturyLink and Frontier Communications, now are looking at OTT as well, but arguably for a different reason: OTT will boost profit margins, compared to IPTV. Consider the practical implications. Where today the service provider has to supply one or multiple decoders (capital investment), OTT simply uses the customer’s own computing devices.

OTT is provisioned online, using a simple web interface, where linear TV or IPTV require a truck roll (and installation labor), external drop and possibly internal wiring, plus set-up.

So OTT video might actually driven for “cost savings,” as much as end user demand.

AI is Being Used for Practical Reasons in Media, Content and Customer Service. IoT Will Use it Soon

It is hard to envision really-new things before they are available; something that Apple CEO Steve Jobs always insisted was the case with new products consumers had no experience with.  So it is with artificial intelligence, or machine learning. But there already are commonplace uses developing in the content, streaming and communications businesses.

Netflix, for example, plans to use artificial intelligence to improve image quality of its content, on a frame-by-frame basis. That has not been possible, affordably, in the past. Cheetah Mobile uses AI to produce individualized and curated content streams for its users.  Natural language processing obviously is used to support Amazon’s Alexa and Google Home.

In telecom, AI might typically be seen in customer operations, especially customer service apps. Artificial intelligence is implemented in automated online assistants that can be seen as avatars on web pages.

It is possible the widest and most-significant application of artificial intelligence will come in the internet of things areas, and therefore, would become vital for communications entities active in the application and platform parts of those businesses. The easy prediction is that AI will be used to wring meaning out of big data produced by sensors.

The more-interesting applications, if harder to envision, are advanced Iot networks that eventually could develop along the lines of the human internet. Technologist Kevin Ashton believes IoT eventually could feature sensors connected to the Internet and capable of making open, ad hoc connections with other servers,  sharing data freely and allowing unexpected applications, so computers can understand the world around them and become humanity’s nervous system.

In other words, the Internet of Things is not only a new way to gather facts but also a way to gather new facts and use them in new ways. That’s one more way AI will start to become something quite practical.

"Private Cellular" is Coming

“Private cellular” or “private mobile” networks are among the new possibilities created by new spectrum access methods, most especially license-exempt or shared spectrum. In principle, that could include enterprise voice networks or shared indoor mobile infrastructure.

Nokia, for example, is introducing platforms that can use unlicensed and shared spectrum to create private end-to-end networks for vertical applications in specific  industries. That might prove important for  enterprises, venues and the hospitality industry in the United States using the 3.5 GHz Citizens Broadband Radio Service (CBRS) shared spectrum.

Enterprises can use CBRS to create “private LTE” networks. “Neutral host” networks are another application, where an enterprise can create an open platform supporting multiple mobile suppliers for indoor access.

Likewise, Quortus and Telefonica believe  DECT replacement and mixed voice and secure data services can be created for enterprises and other organizations using unlicensed spectrum.

Telefónica says it is pioneering the use of private cellular, particularly for its industrial and enterprise customer base. Emergency restoration is another potential application for Quortus solutions.

Sacrifice and Honor I Hope I Understand

I didn't see the speech. But sacrifice and honor I hope I understand. 

WBA Releases Smart City Blueprint

The Connected City Advisory Board (CCAB) and the Wireless Broadband Alliance (WBA) have produced a smart city blueprint for local governments, focusing heavily on process suggestions. But also suggesting where various opportunities might lie.

Separately, some 42 percent of government respondents to a new global study published by Aruba (Hewlett Packard Enterprise) indicated they use IoT now. Some 35 say they are connecting building security systems (57 percent), streetlights (32 percent) and vehicles (20 percent).

The Internet of Things: Today and Tomorrow study reports that 85 percent of respondents say they plan to implement IoT by 2019, though some might question the definition of “internet of things” that was used. The report notes that “our research found conflicting definitions of what IoT means, what IoT devices are connected and how to extract value from them.”

The study questioned 3,100 IT and business decision makers across 20 countries.

source: WBA

Top 3 Indian Mobile Providers are Going to Take 85% of Small Provider Market Share

Over the next year, Indian mobile operator market share is likely to change significantly, as new price pressure and a shift to mobile data services simultaneously forces operators to make new investments, while shaving gross revenue and profit margins.

“At present 25 percent of the market belongs to the small operators,” said Sunil Bharti Mittal, chairman of Bharti Airtel. He expected at least 85 percent of the market to be divided among the top three telcos by the end of the period.

The issue is “who” those leading operators will be. If Idea Cellular and Vodafone merge, that new entity would emerge as the new market leader, with Bharti Airtel number two, and Reliance Communications likely ranked number three. Beyond that, all eyes are on Reliance Jio, which virtually everyone believes eventually will be a contender at the top of the market.

Source: TRAI

Saying the proposed Reliance Jio Infocomm mobile data rates are “unsustainable,” Airtel has no choice but to respond, a move that will maintain, if not intensify, pricing pressure. As always, that will prove hardest on the smallest providers with the least financial depth.

One important element is that Jio, for example, is able to sustain losses in its mobile business because it throws off so much free cash in its other businesses.

Most market researchers or analysts have a methodology for analyzing the industries and industry segments they follow. Equity analysts always rely heavily on quarterly financial reports. Big consultancies rely on past knowledge gleaned from engagements and executive interviews, as do most  market researchers.

In my own case, history (believe it or not) is a valuable tool. We have seen in the past what happens to fragmented markets when a deep-pocketed firm with brand recognition, and a determination to take short-term losses, does to an established market. Assuming equivalent levels of skill on the part of firm managements, smaller, less well capitalized firms will disappear as the market consolidates.

Price attacks and margin compression, in a scale business, will inevitably drive out those providers with less scale.