At least 75% of U.S. Broadband Customers Get a Minimum of 100 Mbps Downstream

Looking only at the U.S. cable companies plus Verizon, and omitting AT&T and CenturyLink, fully 75 percent of U.S. fixed network subscribers receive an average speed of at least 100 Mbps. AT&T customers represent another 15 percent getting an average of 85 Mbps. 

That analysis combines Speedtest data on U.S. fixed network speeds in July 2020 with internet service provider account volume supplied by Leichtman Research Group.

The exercise is to overlay average speeds for the major internet service providers with the number of subscribers each ISP has, to get a sense of the typical experience. For the exercise, use Speedtest measurements of July 2020 speeds and Leichtman Research Group’s analysis of ISP account volume for the third quarter of 2020. 

Where Speedtest did not report average speeds, we use other available third party measurements. 

source: Speedtest 

We rounded up Charter's average speed of 95 Mbps and included it in the analysis of 100 Mbps (or faster) average downstream services. We did not do so for AT&T. 

Broadband Providers

Subscribers at end of 3Q 2020

Net Adds in 3Q 2020

Cable Companies
Comcast	30,062,000	633,000
Charter	28,633,000	537,000
Cox*	5,330,000	50,000
Altice**	4,363,500	26,000
Mediacom	1,425,000	29,000
Cable One**	865,000	27,000
WOW (WideOpenWest)	808,900	3,300
Atlantic Broadband	492,212	13,523

Total Top Cable

71,979,612

1,318,823

Wireline Phone Companies
AT&T	15,375,000	174,000
Verizon	7,069,000	110,000
CenturyLink/Lumen^	4,563,000	(75,000)
Frontier	3,119,000	(23,000)
Windstream	1,102,300	12,900
Consolidated	792,211	1,008
TDS	487,700	8,200
Cincinnati Bell	434,500	2,500

Total Top Telco

32,942,711

210,608

Total Top Broadband

104,922,323

1,529,431

source: Leichtman Research Group 

	Subs	% of total ISP	Average Speed	Accts = 100+	% 100 Mbps+
Comcast	30,062,000	28.65%	108	30,062,000
Charter	28,633,000	27.29%	95	28,633,000
Cox*	5,330,000	5.08%	102	5,330,000
Altice**	4,363,500	4.16%	100	3,927,150	https://stopthecap.com/2018/03/05/altice-usa-90-new-customers-want-broadband-speeds-100-mbps/
Mediacom	1,425,000	1.36%		1,425,000	https://broadbandnow.com/Mediacom-Cable-speed-test
Cable One**	865,000	0.82%		865,000	https://www.reviews.org/internet-service/sparklight-internet-review/
WOW	808,900	0.77%		808,900	https://broadbandnow.com/WOW!-speed-test#:~:text=As%20of%20December%202020%2C%20the,in%20the%205%E2%80%9370ms%20range.
Atlantic Broadband	492,212	0.47%		492,212	https://myspeedcheck.net/speedtest/atlantic-broadband
Total Top Cable	71,979,612
AT&T	15,375,000	14.65%	83
Verizon	7,069,000	6.74%	117	7,069,000
CenturyLink/Lumen^	4,563,000	4.35%	36
Frontier	3,119,000	2.97%
Windstream	1,102,300	1.05%
Consolidated	792,211	0.76%
TDS	487,700	0.46%
Cincinnati Bell	434,500	0.41%
Total Top Telco	32,942,711
Total Top Broadband	104,922,323			78,612,262	75%

Source: IP Carrier analysis

How Much Post-Covid Change for Telecom?

How much will present connectivity business trends enforced by efforts to defeat the Covid-19 pandemic continue post pandemic? The throwaway answer is “most of them.” 

There will be more cloud computing, remote work, virtual collaboration driven by lower density work environments, more dispersed network access volumes (and possibly lower traffic volumes), shifts in use of smartphones for content consumption, higher voice usage and possible shifts of peak hour traffic. Upstream capacity is likely to be more important for home broadband users. 

But one might argue that many of those trends shift traffic, revenue and geographic traffic patterns without necessarily causing significant permanent changes in industry dynamics. 

source: Deloitte 

A more-subtle and perhaps more satisfying answer might be that the pandemic and the business response accelerated many changes that would have taken longer. The typical phrase is that “changes that would have taken years happened in months,” referring to data consumption, for example, use of video conferencing or remote work apps. 

Permanent changes--qualitative and quantitative--are more likely if Covid-19 becomes a permanent affliction, ever-present as are colds and flus. 

But other industries likely will be much more affected than the telecom industry. Retail, travel and lodging, real estate, supply chains and hospitality (restaurants, for example) are likely to see bigger shifts of customer demand than are connectivity service providers. 

Instead, the core business problems for connectivity service providers are likely to remain the same ones that were bedeviling before the pandemic: saturated demand, lower average revenue per user or service or account, more stranded assets, margin pressure and a change in the value of connectivity, compared to apps, devices or business platforms.