Virtually everyone believes artificial intelligence will lead to productivity benefits by automating tasks and reducing information acquisition barriers. Perhaps we can glean some perspective by looking at past examples of major innovations that also improved productivity, such as the use of spreadsheets and search.
Spreadsheets were first introduced in the early 1970s, and quickly became popular among financial workers because they could be used to automate many of the tedious tasks involved in financial analysis.
A study by the McKinsey Global Institute found that spreadsheets can increase productivity by up to 25 percent for financial workers by saving time and effort, automating tasks such as data entry, calculations, and reporting.
Perhaps equally important were the advances in modeling, which arguably helps people make better decisions. Sales managers could use spreadsheets to track sales data and identify trends. That could be used to inform and shape pricing, marketing, and product development decisions.
Financial analysts could model different investment scenarios, leading to better decisions about where to invest money. Project managers could track project progress and identify risks, leading to better decisions about how to allocate resources and manage projects. Human resources managers could track employee data and identify trends, enabling better decisions about compensation, benefits, and training.
Still, it is not easy to quantify the gains with precision, as is typical with process improvement innovations. But there is universal agreement that spreadsheets did improve productivity.
Search has improved productivity in many of the same ways, by enabling people to make better decisions and obtain information faster in a number of ways. Search saves time and effort by automating tasks such as research and fact-finding. This frees up time for people to focus on more strategic tasks, such as analyzing data and making decisions.
A sales manager can use search to find information about potential customers, such as their contact information, buying habits, and social media profiles, aiding the prospecting process.
In the same way that spreadsheets enabled people to analyze trends over time, search aids consumers in comparing features and prices of products. Search also enables all forms of learning; the ability to get an answer to a question immediately;
The point is that AI should ultimately provide value in the same way that use of spreadsheets and search did: automating tasks and saving time and improving decision-making.
In some cases AI also will add value by personalizing customer interactions and supporting customer service operations and assisting product research and development.
