Sunday, March 16, 2025
Much of the AI Chip Market Shifting to Inference

Friday, March 14, 2025
"Fair Use" of Content by AI Models is Another Example of Disruptive New Technology
Humans learn by reading books, watching videos, and experiencing the world, often using copyrighted material like textbooks or movies. This learning is generally not considered copyright infringement, and is known as “fair use,” as it involves personal absorption rather than copying or distributing.
“Fair use” principles and law come into play if humans create new works. It is not the ideas and concepts that are protected, only their form of expression. So new music, writing, songs, movies or TV shows might mirror existing works, but cannot “copy” them.
The issue for AI training is that AI systems, particularly machine learning models, learn by training on large data sets, which may include copyrighted content that is copied. One early court case not directly involving generative AI suggests the systems do not enjoy “fair use” protection.
Fair use is a legal doctrine under U.S. copyright law that permits limited use of copyrighted material without permission, for purposes such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship, or research.
A student reading a textbook or watching a documentary is not typically seen as infringing copyright, as the act of learning is personal and does not involve making physical copies. But that’s where computers and models, with their efficient “memory,” raise issues.
We might argue that human memory is porous enough that “copies” of content are never made, with the possible exception of those humans with “photographic memory.” Computers, obviously, suffer no similar issues.
So human learning is a mental process. “Plagarism” is the obvious example of a fair use violation, as it represents a purportedly new creation that really is copying.
Proponents argue that AI training is transformative, as the model learns patterns to generate new content, not to reproduce the original works.
Opponents argue that AI-generated content competes with originals. But that does not inherently strike some of us as a copyright violation, “merely” a case of new competition.
Aspect | Human Learning | AI Training |
Method of Access | Reading, listening, observing | Copying data into memory/storage |
Copying Involved | No physical copies, mental absorption | Yes, physical copies for processing |
Purpose | Personal learning, education | Model training, often commercial |
Fair Use Application | Relevant for new creations, e.g., quoting | Debated for training process itself |
Market Impact | Minimal, unless new work competes | Potential, if AI output competes with originals |
Legal Precedent | Generally accepted, no infringement | Ongoing lawsuits, no clear consensus |
Computer efficiency is among the issues, since an AI model can be trained on millions of books in hours, far surpassing human capacity. Since copyright is about commercial product protection, language models therefore raise the issue of market impact. It is not so much that humans or AI models “learn” but that they can create new content that has commercial implications.
The commercial concern seems to center on the potential increase in content competition, not so much the knowledge ingestion. That is essentially what underlies the concern about huge amounts of AI-created content “drowning out” human authors.
As often happens, the conflict is between legacy interests and innovators whose new products could disrupt existing economic models. Such conflicts are common when disruptive technologies emerge.
Industry Affected | Disruptive Innovation | Legacy Industry Concerns | Outcome |
Music Industry (2000s) | Digital music streaming and MP3 sharing (Napster, Spotify) | Loss of album sales, piracy concerns | Industry shifted to streaming models, with revenue-sharing for artists and labels |
Publishing and Journalism | Google Search and News Aggregators | Decline in ad revenue, loss of control over content distribution | Publishers adapted with paywalls, licensing deals |
TV and Film Industry | Online video streaming (Netflix, YouTube) | Cord-cutting reduced traditional TV revenue | Studios launched their own streaming services (Disney+, HBO Max) |
Taxis and Transportation | Ride-sharing apps (Uber, Lyft) | Regulation circumvention, lost driver income | Ride-sharing became mainstream; regulations updated over time |
Retail (Brick-and-Mortar Stores) | E-commerce (Amazon, Shopify) | Store closures, price undercutting | Traditional retailers shifted online or hybrid models |
Finance and Banking | Cryptocurrencies, Fintech (DeFi, PayPal, Square) | Loss of control over transactions, regulatory concerns | Banks embraced fintech partnerships, crypto regulations emerged |
Photography and Film | Digital cameras and smartphones | Film sales collapsed, Kodak and Fujifilm disrupted | Kodak filed for bankruptcy; digital photography dominated |
Telecom (Landlines and SMS) | VoIP, Messaging apps (Skype, WhatsApp) | Decline in SMS and landline revenue | Telcos adapted by offering data-driven pricing models |
AI and Content Creation | Generative AI (ChatGPT, Midjourney) | Copyright concerns, job displacement fears | Legal battles ongoing; potential for licensing frameworks |
Fair use of content “scraped” by AI models is another example of a clash of perceived business interests.

Thursday, March 13, 2025
Will AI First-Mover Disadvantage Dethrone ChatGPT?
Most entrepreneurs in new computing markets including generative artificial intelligence prefer to be “first movers,” on the theory that this helps ensure longer-term leadership by creating scale and enhancing network effects.
Of course, much hinges on the metrics used to estimate market share. Recurring users, habitual and regular users and samplers are all different ways of measuring share. Estimates of routine use might suggest a market with ChatGPT models having 40-percent share.
Model | Market Share |
OpenAI (DALL-E, ChatGPT) | 40% |
Google (Imagen, Bard) | 25% |
Stability AI (Stable Diffusion) | 15% |
Midjourney | 10% |
Other (Adobe, Baidu) | 10% |
If we measure using the "ever used it once, even if you no longer do so" metric, ChatGPT might t end to rank higher.
So computing giants are spending big to get big. And, right now, most observers would tend to agree that ChatGPT is the market share leader.
But the history of new computing markets actually suggests the opposite: pioneering companies that create new product categories often don't become the eventual market leaders. The "first-mover disadvantage" might help us avoid the mental trap that the early innovators will inevitably lead the market longer term.
In fact, the pattern is so frequent it might come as a surprise, given the attention paid to early-mover strategy emphasized by venture capitalists, for example.
Computing Market Pioneers and Ultimate Market Leaders | ||||||
Product Category | Notable Pioneer(s) | Year | Pioneer's Fate | Ultimate Market Leader | Year | Key Advantage of Later Entrant |
Personal Computers | Altair 8800 (MITS) | 1975 | Company sold in 1977, eventually disappeared | IBM PC/Compatible makers (Dell, HP) | 1981+ | Open architecture enabling third-party development |
PC Operating Systems | CP/M (Digital Research) | 1974 | Marginalized after failing to secure IBM PC deal | Microsoft Windows | 1985+ | Secured IBM partnership; better graphical interface |
Spreadsheet Software | VisiCalc (Personal Software) | 1979 | Company sold; product discontinued | Microsoft Excel | 1985+ | Better features, integration with Office suite |
Word Processing | WordStar (MicroPro) | 1978 | Declined in 1980s, company bankrupted | Microsoft Word | 1983+ | WYSIWYG interface, better Windows integration |
Web Browsers | Mosaic/Netscape Navigator | 1993 | Lost browser wars, sold to AOL | Google Chrome | 2008+ | Faster performance, better security features |
Search Engines | AltaVista, Yahoo | 1995 | AltaVista absorbed by Yahoo; Yahoo search declined | 1998+ | Superior algorithm and minimalist interface | |
MP3 Players | Diamond Rio PMP300 | 1998 | Limited storage and features; company exited market | Apple iPod | 2001+ | Larger storage, better design, iTunes integration |
Smartphones | IBM Simon, Palm, BlackBerry | 1992-2002 | Market share collapsed after iPhone introduction | Apple iPhone/Android devices | 2007+ | Full touchscreen UI, app ecosystem |
Social Networks | Friendster, MySpace | 2002-2003 | User exodus, both eventually failed | Facebook (Meta) | 2004+ | Better reliability, features, and network effects |
E-commerce | CompuServe Mall, Internet Shopping Network | 1984/1994 | Early initiatives failed to gain traction | Amazon | 1995+ | Customer-centric approach, broader selection |
Tablet Computers | Apple Newton, Microsoft Tablet PC | 1993/2001 | Newton discontinued; Windows tablets had limited success | Apple iPad | 2010+ | Mature touchscreen technology, app ecosystem |
Streaming Video | RealPlayer (RealNetworks) | 1995 | Overtaken by competitors, lost market relevance | YouTube, Netflix | 2005, 2007+ | Better user experience, content libraries |
Voice Assistants | IBM Simon, Microsoft SPOT watches | 1992/2004 | Limited capabilities, poor market reception | Amazon Alexa, Apple Siri | 2011, 2014+ | Cloud computing advances, better natural language processing |
Virtual Reality | Sega VR, Nintendo Virtual Boy | 1991/1995 | Technical limitations led to commercial failures | Meta Quest, Valve Index | 2016+ | Superior technology, computing power, content ecosystem |
Cloud Storage | Xdrive, MediaMax | 2000-2003 | Early services closed due to business model issues | Dropbox, Google Drive | 2008, 2012+ | Better synchronization, freemium business model |
That might be the biggest cautionary tale for today’s early generative AI market share story. It is too early to know which firms will eventually emerge as the market leaders.

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