Showing posts sorted by relevance for query GPT. Sort by date Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by relevance for query GPT. Sort by date Show all posts

Friday, August 16, 2024

Generative AI Poses Evaluation and Learning Issues as Did Calculators

Educators might say we are at a point with student use of generative artificial intelligence that resembles the teaching and learning of mathematics once calculators were available for use, which is to say a mix of positives and negatives. 


Study Name

Publication Date

Publication Venue

Key Conclusions

The Effects of Calculator Use on Mathematics in Schools and in the Certificate Examinations

2008

Educational Research Centre, Ireland

Calculator use can enhance problem-solving and conceptual understanding, but it's essential to maintain a balance with mental math and paper-pencil skills.

Calculator Use and Mathematical Thinking

1998

The Mathematics Teacher

Calculators can support higher-order thinking skills when integrated effectively into instruction.

The Impact of Calculator Use on Students' Algebraic Thinking

2005

Journal of Research in Mathematics Education

Calculator use can facilitate algebraic reasoning and problem-solving, but it's essential to focus on conceptual understanding.

Calculators in Mathematics Education

1992

NCTM Yearbook

Provides an overview of calculator research and recommendations for effective implementation.


To the extent that traditional exercises, such as writing essays, has been a proxy for testing understanding while arguably improving thinking and writing skills, generative AI poses issues, especially as learning moves away from in-person to online formats. 


In principle, generative AI could enhance creativity, but could also reduce originality; improve writing skills or leave them undeveloped; replace thinking skills or sharpen them; allow personalized learning but also possible plagiarism. 


A  key remaining question is how generative AI affects learning, namely, how humans acquire new skills as they perform tasks. One recent study, for example, involved a thousand students using two generative AI tutors, one that mimics a standard ChatGPT interface (called GPT Base) and one with prompts designed to safeguard learning (called GPT Tutor). 


“Consistent with prior work, our results show that access to GPT-4 significantly improves performance (48 percent improvement for GPT Base and 127 percent for GPT Tutor),” the researchers say. “However, we additionally find that when access is subsequently taken away, students actually perform worse than those who never had access (17 percent reduction for GPT Base).”


In other words, the researchers say, “access to GPT-4 can harm educational outcomes.”


“Our results suggest that students attempt to use GPT-4 as a ‘crutch’ during practice problem sessions, and when successful, perform worse on their own,” the study says. 


One college professor I spoke with noted that her work had switched almost exclusively to online teaching and online testing formats, which means that GenAI use cannot be prevented. 


She noted that GenAI obviously is being used for essays and tests, which does make it harder to assess actual student comprehension of the material, to say nothing of critical thinking, reasoning or writing skills development. 


But one way or the other, schools are going to have to cope with GenAI and its impact on teaching methods, learning and assessment. 


Ultimately, that all will be reflected in labor force skills as well. But cognitive skills will continue to be vital for some industries and job roles, compared to others. 


Industry

Job Function

Higher-Order Cognitive Skills Importance

Technology

Software Engineer, Data Scientist, AI Researcher

High

Healthcare

Physician, Nurse Practitioner, Medical Researcher

High

Finance

Financial Analyst, Investment Banker, Risk Manager

High

Consulting

Management Consultant, Strategy Consultant

High

Education

Teacher, Professor, Curriculum Developer

High

Law

Lawyer, Judge, Legal Analyst

High

Marketing

Marketing Manager, Brand Strategist, Market Research Analyst

Medium-High

Sales

Sales Manager, Account Executive, Sales Engineer

Medium

Manufacturing

Operations Manager, Quality Control Engineer

Medium

Retail

Store Manager, Buyer, Visual Merchandiser

Medium

Hospitality

Hotel Manager, Event Planner

Medium

Customer Service

Customer Service Representative, Call Center Agent

Low-Medium

Administrative Support

Office Assistant, Data Entry Clerk

Low


Thursday, January 4, 2024

Economic Impact from Large Language Models Should Rival the Internet

Keeping in mind the wide range of assumptions that must be made about “total value creation” by any single general purpose technology, and with the important caveat that the time frame over which that contribution is measured, we can still note that estimates for large language models alone are sizable. 


GPT

Study Name

Published Date

Publication Venue

Estimated Value Creation

Electricity

The Economic History of Energy

1989

Stanford University Press

$50 trillion (1980 USD) by 1980

Internal Combustion Engine

The Motorcar and Industrial Revolution

1984

Allen Lane

$25 trillion (1980 USD) by 1980

Internet

The Internet Economy

2015

MIT Press

$10 trillion (2015 USD)

Internet

Digital Economy Report 2021

2021

UNCTAD

$15.5 trillion (2020 USD)

GPT-3 (Early Estimates)

The AI Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence

2016

Viking

$15 trillion (2016 USD) by 2030

GPT-3 (Early Estimates)

Economic Impact of Large Language Models

2022

PwC

$6 trillion (2025 USD)

Electricity

The Economic Growth of Nations

1963

Economic Journal

15-30 trillion 

Electricity

The Impact of Electricity on American Growth and Welfare

1992

Journal of Economic History

10-20 trillion 

Internal Combustion Engine

The Automobile and the American Economy

1955

American Economic Review

5-10 trillion 


The Internal Combustion Engine and US Economic Growth

2007

Explorations in Economic History

7-15 trillion 

Internet

The Internet Economy: Opportunities and Challenges

2011

McKinsey Global Institute

5-10 trillion 


The Value of the Internet: Evidence from the Dark Web

2023

Science

8-15 trillion 

Large Language Models (LLMs)

The Economic Potential of Artificial Intelligence

2022

World Bank

1-10 trillion  (by 2030)


Annual contributions would of course run in the “billions of dollars” range. 


All such analyses are highly dependent on the research assumptions and dates studied, so the figures are not directly comparable. 


GPT

Study Name

Publication Date

Publishing Venue

Estimated Annual Value Creation (Trillion USD)

Electricity

The Economic Effects of Universal Electrification

2016

Journal of Economic Growth

0.5-1.0

Internal Combustion Engine

The Impact of the Automobile and Truck on the U.S. Economy

2004

Explorations in Economic History

0.2-0.5

Internet

The Internet's Global Value Add

2023

Citigroup

8.0-15.0

Large Language Models (LLMs): GPT-3

The Economic Potential of Large Language Models

2022

McKinsey Global Institute

0.1-1.0

Quantum Computing

Quantum Computing: Economic Opportunities and Challenges

2021

National Academies Press

0.1-1.0


We can’t yet be confident that we know how extensive AI impact will have on economies and industries. But if AI does become a GPT, its impact will be substantial, perhaps on the order of the impact the internet itself has had.


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