Only AT&T U-verse Loses No Net Video Subscribers in First Quarter 2020

It will not surprise you that leading cable and telco subscription video providers lost customers in the first quarter of 2020. What might surprise you is that AT&T’s U-verse service lost zero customers in the quarter. That was the exception to the rule, which was that service providers lost customers in the quarter. 

Pay-TV Providers

Subscribers at end of 1Q 2020

Net Adds in 1Q 2020

Cable Companies
Comcast	20,845,000	(409,000)
Charter	16,074,000	(70,000)
Cox	3,820,000	(45,000)
Altice	3,137,500	(41,700)
Mediacom	693,000	(17,000)
Atlantic Broadband	306,252	(2,386)
Cable One	303,000	(11,000)

Total Top Cable

45,178,752

(596,086)

Satellite Services
DIRECTV	15,136,000	(897,000)
DISH TV	9,012,000	(132,000)

Total DBS

24,148,000

(1,029,000)

Phone Companies
Verizon FiOS	4,145,000	(84,000)
AT&T U-verse	3,440,000	0
Frontier	621,000	(39,000)

Total Top Phone

8,206,000

(123,000)

Streaming Service
Hulu + Live TV	3,300,000	100,000
Sling TV	2,311,000	(281,000)
AT&T TV NOW	788,000	(138,000)

Total Streaming

6,399,000

(319,000)

Total Top Providers

83,931,752

(2,067,086)

source: Leichtman Research

U.S. Linear Video Losses Steepen

Though there are changes of market share for every product category, the losses of legacy product accounts and revenues continues unabated in most markets. Consider video services, one of the newer telco products.

U.S. linear subscription TV providers lost at least 1,530,000 net video subscribers in the second quarter of  2019, compared to a net loss of about 420,000 subscribers in the second quarter of 2018, according to Leichtman Research Group. 

Satellite suppliers took a bigger hit than fixed network providers, and DirecTV took the lion’s share of losses.  Satellite TV services lost about 855,000 subscribers in the second quarter of 2019, compared to a net loss of about 480,000 subscribers in the same quarter of  2018. 

Video Providers

Subscribers 2Q 2019

Net Adds 2Q 2019

Cable Companies
Comcast	21,641,000	(224,000)
Charter	16,320,000	(141,000)
Cox*	3,940,000	(40,000)
Altice	3,276,500	(20,800)
Mediacom	747,000	(17,000)
Cable ONE	308,493	(12,118)
Atlantic Broadband**	307,261	(345)

Total Top Cable

46,540,254

(455,263)

Satellite
DirecTV	17,901,000	(778,000)
DISH TV	9,560,000	(79,000)

Total DBS

27,461,000

(857,000)

Phone Companies
Verizon FiOS	4,346,000	(52,000)
AT&T U-verse^	3,704,000	0
Frontier	738,000	(46,000)

Total Top Phone

8,788,000

(98,000)

Internet-Delivered (vMVPD)
Sling TV	2,472,000	48,000
DIRECTV NOW	1,340,000	(168,000)

Total Top vMVPD^^

3,812,000

(120,000)

Total Top Providers

86,601,254

(1,530,263)

The direction of change is not unexpected, by virtually anyone. Perhaps the magnitude of change is not surprising, either. Virtually every legacy product sold by service providers is diminishing in volume, creating a need for creation of new products and revenue streams.

Hulu and YouTube TV Might be Among Biggest Streaming Winners

Hulu and YouTube are among the bigger winners in streaming video by 2022, Business Insider predicts. Sling TV and Playstation Vue are among the big losers. We might note that both Hulu and YouTube TV are anchored by their “live TV” (linear)  content.

We sometimes forget that the legacy subscription TV business (cable, telco, satellite TV) is itself an amalgam of “live” and “pre-recorded” content. The paramount examples of “live” content being “sports and news;” the best example of pre-recorded content being movie services.

In the streaming era we will see lots of niches recreated out of legacy content formats, including services that emphasize pre-recorded content; some that emphasize “live content” (sports networks, news) and many that recreate in a streaming format today’s mix of channels.

The “live streaming” segment of the market will include the specialized sports and news venues, plus what we tend to call “skinny bundles” of channels that resemble subscription TV but offer fewer channels.

Some services, including Netflix, might continue to thrive using the pre-recorded content model. Sling TV might be the original skinny bundle supplier. But there is lots of new competition coming in that segment from Hulu, DirecTV Now, YouTube TV and others.

source: Business Insider

What HDTV Could Teach Us About Mobile, OTT Video

“People prefer HDTV even when the TV is off,” one executive quipped, in the days before high-definition TV was launched in the U.S. market. What he meant was that the different aspect ratio of the screen (16:9 compared to 4:3) was preferred over the analog TV screen. It is easy to say that people wanted the higher-definition picture, but there were other elements of the experience that also changed at the same time.

The higher resolution is part of the long trend towards more realism in video, to be sure. But higher resolution also meant that pictures looked better on larger screens. So part of the attraction of HDTV was larger screens.

At the same time, the shift to flat screens also had begun, adding a further stylistic change of form factor, and something consumers clearly preferred.

The point is that sometimes consumers desire a product for all kinds of reasons beyond the stated purpose of an innovation.

That is probably good advice when considering more-recent changes, such as the shift to on-demand, non-linear viewing and streaming delivery. People might choose to behave in ways that ultimately may surprise, and not as expected.

For example, most likely believe the story that streaming has value because it provides sufficient choice at lower prices than linear TV. But a new Harris Poll suggests most consumers will eventually spend as much on their streaming subscriptions as they do on linear TV.

source: Harris Poll

Regardless of whether it is linear subscription TV  or OTT, consumers are consistent in how much they are willing to pay and the amount of content they view. Consumers want about 15 cable channels or OTT services, and are willing to spend $100 per month total, the survey suggests.

The typical U.S. home spent $107 a month on linear subscription TV service in 2018, according to Leichtman Research. And prices for streaming services also are growing. The linear TV replacement services, for example, cost between $40 and $70 a month, with Sling at the low end and DirecTV Now at the high end.

A couple of observations therefore are apt. The AT&T move into linear TV has been criticized as a failure. And some also did not favor its later move into content ownership, either. Some supporters of both moves might say the Harris Poll results tend to confirm that linear video is a springboard to OTT video, and will ultimately be of similar revenue magnitude, even if less of the total revenue might flow to any single former linear video provider.

But the poll results also suggest the shift to skinny linear bundles makes sense, since that approach is best suited to a new market in which overall non-streaming demand falls. But linear streaming formats and on-demand formats will coexist.

Mobile TV is viewed as a coming evolution of the business as well. Consumers who use at least one OTT service are heavy mobile users, with many saying they are on their smartphone for more than six hours every single day.

Streamers also consume more than 2.5 hours of video content every day on their smartphones, according to the Harris Poll commissioned by OpenX.

source: Harris Poll

What is less clear is how the video subscription business could change as mobile delivery becomes easier, or more popular. Screen size does not seem to be the limitation it once was, as mobility now seems to be valued at least as much as screen size. Unclear are the potential changes in features.

Some might argue that the big change coming with mobile streaming is simply the screen the video is consumed on, namely, the mobile phone instead of the television. So video consumption becomes less place-based (not a fixed TV location).

At least in principle, that creates new opportunities for temporary venue-based video, in some instances. But all that is yet to be developed. Still, it is possible that mobile TV might eventually result in new features for video consumption, as HDTV actually represented several concurrent changes beyond image quality.