Friday, May 22, 2009

"Easy to Use" Mobiles a New Niche

"Easy to use" mobile phones are a demographic "evergreen" market segment, Swedish consumer electronics company Doro believes.

In some cases it’s not a matter of whether customers are actually able to use a device, but rather they resonate with the image that the product conveys.

But there are some important design considerations. Larger characters on the phone screen and bigger buttons for dialing numbers are examples. Those with hearing loss can be provided devices that sync hearing aids using Bluetooth and have high quality speakers.

Though nobody can predict what will happen when today's BlackBerry and iPhone users age, they might not someday be able to view screens as well as they do today and might need better audio.

Maybe the buttons on a BlackBerry will be too small. And later in life, users might not be so busy. In that case, always-available email might not be so important, especially when users are paying for their own service and devices, rather than using company-supplied technology.

For today's seniors who have not used iPhones before, it is very likely that many such persons would reject the iPhone simply because of the device’s youth-centric branding.

Doro says it has been working with carrier partners both in Europe and undisclosed partners in the U.S. to investigate wireless health applications and other services that could leverage Doro’s easy to use phones.

As the wireless market becomes saturated, serving such niches will be more important.

Hybrid Mobile Plans Gain Traction

MetroPCS and Leap Wireless both reported annual double-digit connections growth in the first quarter of 2009 and in some geographic areas are claiming a greater share of net additions than the big four mobile providers. 

Both are doing so on the strength of  unlimited prepaid plans, a strategy Sprint’s prepaid affiliate Boost Mobile also has adopted. Boost offers a $50 per month unlimited usage plan. 

MetroPCS and Leap Wireless also are pioneers of the "hybrid" mobile plans that offer a monthly allowance of voice and data but is paid for upfront and does not require a contract. 

"In the current economic climate, customers are finding their unlimited hybrid plans attractive, particularly as the plans are free from any long-term contract or credit checks," says Will Croft, Wireless Intelligence analyst. 

Video Consumption Climbs on All Screens
















Online video consumption grew 13 percent in the first quarter while mobile video viewing grew 52 percent year over year. So you might think linear TV viewing decreased. Not so, says Nielsen.

(click image to expand chart)

In fact, linear TV viewing grew 1.2 percent year over year, even as consumption of other forms of video, on different platforms, grew.

The average American watches approximately 153 hours of TV every month at home. In addition, the 131 million Americans who watch video on the Internet watch on average about 3 hours of video online each month at home and work.
The 13.4 million Americans who watch video on mobile phones watch on average about 3.5 hours of mobile video each month.

Out of all different age groups, 18-24 year olds show signs of watching DVR and online video the same amount of time - timeshifting 5 hrs, 47 minutes per month, and watching video online 5 hrs, 3 minutes each month.

Thursday, May 21, 2009

Videoconferencing as Lead Unified Communications App

Video-based conferencing services are not the only unified communications service business customers are looking to buy, but they seem to assumed a "lead" application status recently.

That, at least, is what respondents to a recent Yankee Group survey indicate.


Carrier Ethernet will be Driven by Consumer Services

You might think the carrier Ethernet market is a product category driven by business customers.

But Yankee Group analysts predict that most of the market will be driven by services sold to consumers, not businesses, beginning this year.

That is evidence of the new role for Ethernet used to support broadband access and digital video services.


TIA Forecasts "Unprecedented" ICT Industry Revenue

For the first time in its 23 years of forecasting for the information and communications technology industry, the Telecommunications Industry Association is projecting a 3.1 percent decline in revenue for the overall global ICT market in 2009. In the United States, revenue will suffer a 5.5 percent decline in 2009.

Some will read the numbers and translate that into a dip in telecommunications spending, but that is not what the headline number indicates.

The TIA is talking about the ICT industry, not the telecom service provider industry. In fact, roughly 70 percent of the ICT data refers to things such as sales of computers, information technology consulting, PC and other software and services related to creating, modifying or maintaining data networks, on the premises.

For example, the TIA forecasts a dip in U.S. revenue from about $1.1 trillion in 2008, dipping to about $1 trillion in 2009, falling to $990 billion in 2010.

But according to the Federal Communications Commission, total U.S. communications service provider revenue in 2008 was about $300 billion. So roughly $700 billion of total ICT revenue is from hardware, software and services related to computing.

The data I have access to does not break out forecasts for the U.S. communications service provider industry. But I would be very surprised if industry revenues failed to grow in 2009, compared to 2008.

VoIP, WANs, IPTV, Mobility Will be Supplier Bright Spots in 2009 and 2010

It now appears 2009 and 2010 will not be happy years for suppliers of equipment and software to many segments of the global telecom industry, though investments in backbone capacity, IPTV, mobility and VoIP will be salient exceptions. 

Releasing its latest market forecast, the Telecommunications Industry Association predicts U.S. carrier capex spending will be down 13 percent in 2009, compared to 2008. 

Global capex spending will dip about 3.1 percent, TIA says. 

A recovery in spending will occur in 2010 and 2011, TIA now projects, and U.S. capex will climb about 14.4 percent when the rebound happens. 

As you might expect, spending will vary by segment and by growth prospects in each segment. U.S. landline infrastructure spending will decline about 11 percent in 2009, but there also will be a 15 percent growth in backbone spending. Operators will spend about 27 percent less on access. 

Spending on wireless infrastructure and broadband will climb, however. Indeed, spending on IPTV and VoIP will grow 42 percent in 2009. 

None of these projections address service provider revenues, though, and are limited to capital spending programs by service providers. So far, first quarter 2009 service provider reports suggest service providers, as an industry, are on track to grow revenue in 2009, compared to 2008.

AI Will Improve Productivity, But That is Not the Biggest Possible Change

Many would note that the internet impact on content media has been profound, boosting social and online media at the expense of linear form...