Sunday, February 4, 2024

5G Unlimited Plans Can Indeed Boost ARPU

In principle, unlimited data usage plans offered by mobile operators in many markets “should” entice consumers to buy them, which, in turn, should lead to higher average revenue per account. 


And that indeed arguably is the case for 5G unlimited usage plans offered by some mobile operators in some markets. 


Market

Mobile Service Provider

Unlimited Data Plan Price

Biggest Capped Data Plan Price (Data Amount)

United States

Verizon

$80

$70 (50GB)

United States

AT&T

$85

$65 (50GB)

United States

T-Mobile

$70

$50 (50GB)

United Kingdom

EE

£38

£32 (50GB)

United Kingdom

Vodafone

£45

£35 (50GB)

United Kingdom

Three

£30

£25 (50GB)

Germany

Deutsche Telekom

€99

€79 (50GB)

Germany

Vodafone

€84.99

€69.99 (50GB)

Germany

O2

€79.99

€64.99 (50GB)

Japan

NTT Docomo

¥8,778

¥7,480 (50GB)

Japan

KDDI

¥7,260

¥6,270 (50GB)

Japan

SoftBank

¥7,150

¥6,210 (50GB)


Searching for the LLM Killer App

“Killer apps” often are important in spurring adoption of new technologies. It was the spreadsheet which drove financial personnel to buy and use personal computers. It was the ability to watch over-the-air television which drove early cable TV adoption in rural areas, while it was commercial-free Home Box Office which arguably drove urban area customers to buy. 


Mobile email access drove adoption of the BlackBerry smartphone. The touchscreen interface arguably drove adoption of the iPhone and all subsequent smartphones. Turn-by-turn directions supplied by navigation apps such as Google Maps drove some mobile network and device upgrades. 


And that has been typical for general purpose technologies: there is typically a particular use case that drives adoption. 


Lighting is generally considered the first important use case for electricity. Pumping water from coal mines was the important early use case for steam engines, followed by its use to power textile machinery. Autos were the killer app for internal combustion engines. 


It is less clear which apps drove consumer interest in the internet, though music sites such as Napster played a role. 


But there were also several other contenders that drove interest in using the internet, including email, the multimedia web and web browsers; search engines and instant messaging. Electronic file sharing and e-commerce also were lead use cases. 


Social media platform adoption reached about 10 percent use by the internet-connected population in the United States between 2005 and 2015, for example. 


Platform

Year of Reaching 10% Adoption in U.S.

Source

The Internet

1997 to 1998

NTIA

Email

1997

NTIA, Pew Research

MySpace

2005

Pew Research Center

Facebook

2006

Pew Research Center

Twitter

2010

Pew Research Center

YouTube

2006 to 2008

Pew Research Center

Instagram

2013

Pew Research Center

Snapchat

2015

Pew Research Center


We will have to wait a while to identify the AI “killer app,” either for large language models or broader AI adoption in other ways, though personal assistants, entertainment, health and wellness, education or creative tools have been suggested as promising early use cases.


And some might suggest large language models and generative AI could eventually be seen as the killer app that spurred broader consumer use of AI. But beyond that, the issue is which implementations and use cases for LLM will drive obvious and broad consumer or entity value?


And at what cost?




Friday, February 2, 2024

AI in Five Years: More Ability to Generate Actions


It will be more than a better human-machine interface, according to Mustafa Suleyman, co-founder of DeepMind. And the models will include both "large" general purpose and "small" specialized models, many would suggest. That has implications for "on the device" and "edge computing as a service" business and use models. 

On-Device Edge Computing Will be Important for Cost Reasons

Generally speaking, edge computing facilities such as those envisioned by the multi-access edge computing model impose higher costs than do hyperscale data facilities, including capital investment efficiency and operating costs. That does not mean MEC is unfeasible, but that the business cases need to be worked out, as there are alternatives including on-board or on-device computing. 


Assume 20 percent to 40 percent of edge computing requirements might be suited for on-device processing, especially for simple, real-time tasks and applications with tight latency constraints.


Assume the remaining 60 percent to 80 percent of processing tasks might use either remote edge computing or cloud processing for more complex analysis, data aggregation, or situations where device limitations are significant.


Even in those cases, it is presently unclear how much latency improvement might be needed, and therefore when edge facilities are required. The answer matters, since, generally speaking, MEC or other edge computing facilities will not be as capital-efficient as hyperscale data centers. 


Challenge

Edge Computing

Hyperscale Data Centers

Infrastructure diversity: Diverse hardware needs based on specific edge locations (e.g., ruggedized for remote areas, low-power for battery-operated devices)

Standardized hardware for bulk purchase and deployment

Higher upfront costs

Geographical distribution: Managing equipment across geographically dispersed locations

Centralized infrastructure with economies of scale

Higher logistics and deployment costs

Smaller scale: Lower capacity per unit compared to large data centers

High capacity per unit due to bulk purchase and deployment

Lower cost per unit of compute

Add to that the operating cost profile, which likewise tends to be higher than for hyperscale sites. 


Challenge

Edge Computing

Hyperscale Data Centers

Remote monitoring and maintenance: Managing and maintaining equipment across diverse locations

Centralized monitoring and maintenance

Increased labor and service costs

Power and cooling: Diverse power and cooling requirements based on location (e.g., solar panels for remote areas)

Standardized power and cooling infrastructure

Increased energy and infrastructure costs

Security and compliance: Diversified security needs based on specific edge locations and regulations

Standardized security protocols across centralized infrastructure

Increased security and compliance costs


All of that means that MEC and other edge computing facilities are likely to be relatively costly investments for a data center services provider, simply because of lower scale at each facility, as well as the need for many such distributed facilities. 


That includes hardware costs; deployment costs; energy profiles; cooling requirements; monitoring and maintenance and well as security. 


Cost Factor

Edge Computing

Hyperscale Data Centers

Hardware: Higher upfront cost per unit, diverse needs

Lower upfront cost per unit, standardized needs

Edge > Hyperscale

Deployment: Higher logistics and deployment cost per unit

Lower deployment cost per unit due to scale

Edge > Hyperscale

Energy: Diverse power needs, potentially higher cost per unit

Standardized power infrastructure, lower cost per unit

Edge > Hyperscale (depending on location)

Cooling: Diverse cooling needs, potentially higher cost per unit

Standardized cooling infrastructure, lower cost per unit

Edge > Hyperscale (depending on location)

Monitoring & Maintenance: Higher labor and service cost per unit

Lower cost per unit due to centralized management

Edge > Hyperscale

Security & Compliance: Higher cost per unit due to diverse needs

Lower cost per unit due to standardized protocols

Edge > Hyperscale (depending on regulations)


Thursday, February 1, 2024

Edge Computing Capex, Opex are Deployment Issues

Generally speaking, edge computing facilities such as those envisioned by the multi-access edge computing model impose higher costs than do hyperscale data facilities, including capital investment efficiency and operating costs. That does not mean MEC is unfeasible, but that the business cases need to be worked out, as there are alternatives including on-board or on-device computing. 


Assume 20 percent to 40 percent of edge computing requirements might be suited for on-device processing, especially for simple, real-time tasks and applications with tight latency constraints.


Assume the remaining 60 percent to 80 percent of processing tasks might use either remote edge computing or cloud processing for more complex analysis, data aggregation, or situations where device limitations are significant.


Even in those cases, it is presently unclear how much latency improvement might be needed, and therefore when edge facilities are required. The answer matters, since, generally speaking, MEC or other edge computing facilities will not be as capital-efficient as hyperscale data centers. 


Challenge

Edge Computing

Hyperscale Data Centers

Infrastructure diversity: Diverse hardware needs based on specific edge locations (e.g., ruggedized for remote areas, low-power for battery-operated devices)

Standardized hardware for bulk purchase and deployment

Higher upfront costs

Geographical distribution: Managing equipment across geographically dispersed locations

Centralized infrastructure with economies of scale

Higher logistics and deployment costs

Smaller scale: Lower capacity per unit compared to large data centers

High capacity per unit due to bulk purchase and deployment

Lower cost per unit of compute


Add to that the operating cost profile, which likewise tends to be higher than for hyperscale sites. 


Challenge

Edge Computing

Hyperscale Data Centers

Remote monitoring and maintenance: Managing and maintaining equipment across diverse locations

Centralized monitoring and maintenance

Increased labor and service costs

Power and cooling: Diverse power and cooling requirements based on location (e.g., solar panels for remote areas)

Standardized power and cooling infrastructure

Increased energy and infrastructure costs

Security and compliance: Diversified security needs based on specific edge locations and regulations

Standardized security protocols across centralized infrastructure

Increased security and compliance costs


All of that means that MEC and other edge computing facilities are likely to be relatively costly investments for a data center services provider, simply because of lower scale at each facility, as well as the need for many such distributed facilities. 


That includes hardware costs; deployment costs; energy profiles; cooling requirements; monitoring and maintenance and well as security. 


Cost Factor

Edge Computing

Hyperscale Data Centers

Hardware: Higher upfront cost per unit, diverse needs

Lower upfront cost per unit, standardized needs

Edge > Hyperscale

Deployment: Higher logistics and deployment cost per unit

Lower deployment cost per unit due to scale

Edge > Hyperscale

Energy: Diverse power needs, potentially higher cost per unit

Standardized power infrastructure, lower cost per unit

Edge > Hyperscale (depending on location)

Cooling: Diverse cooling needs, potentially higher cost per unit

Standardized cooling infrastructure, lower cost per unit

Edge > Hyperscale (depending on location)

Monitoring & Maintenance: Higher labor and service cost per unit

Lower cost per unit due to centralized management

Edge > Hyperscale

Security & Compliance: Higher cost per unit due to diverse needs

Lower cost per unit due to standardized protocols

Edge > Hyperscale (depending on regulations)

Google Lumiere for Video Production


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