"Free is Going to Win..."

The paid video download market is ultimately a dead end, argues Forrester Research analyst James McQuivey. "Free is going to win."

Online video sites that sell shows and movies such as Apple Inc.'s iTunes will likely peak this year as more programming is made available on free outlets supported by advertising. Sales of movies and television shows are expected to almost triple to $279 million in 2007 from an estimated $98 million last year.

"In the video space, iTunes is just a temporary flash while consumers wait for better ways to get video. They're already coming," says McQuivey, who says the paid download video market a "dead end."

That's certainly the developing conventional wisdom, but might not be entirely accurate. Most video watched today is partly ad supported, and partly subscription based. U.S. Cable TV revenues of $74.7 billion include $33.6 billion of basic cable (ad-supported channels) and $6.5 billion in commercial-free premium channels. Cable advertising is about $5 billion annually. So for linear video, ad support is crucial for most channels.

But "pay to own" or "pay to watch" models also are well established. The "pay to own" market includes $16 billion of annual movie and DVD sales. The "pay to watch" segment includes $8 billion in rental revenue. None of that is likely to change simply because a new distribution method is added to the legacy mix. In other words, "pay per view" or "on demand" always has been a smaller portion of overall video consumption.

So the conventional wisdom probably is right: ad support will drive most online video viewing. But not all. There still will be some appetite for downloading to own, just as people now watch ad-supported video and buy DVDs.