3G Shows Long Tail

In a way, global mobile experience shows the "long tail," Pareto principle or "80/20 rule" (80 percent of the results come from 20 percent of the services and features) already applies. Consider third generation (3G) networks. Every mobile operator has one, or is building one.

More than 74 percent of Japan's 97 million-plus subscribers were signed up for 3G services at the end of April, for example, so adoption of the platform isn't the issue.

But operators are still struggling to find the "killer app." Today's stock answer is "content." So far, however, no universally accepted "killer app" has emerged. Users are still mostly just using their phones to make voice calls and send text messages.

"As of now, it's difficult to pinpoint the killer service for 3G networks," said Lee Bang-hyung, Chief Operating Officer at SK Telecom Co Ltd. In fact, says Peter Erskine, the chief executive and chairman of Telefonica O2 Europe, agreed: "Text is the big standout."

That isn't to say a highly-used app won't be found. It is to point out that there will not be very many new applications nearly every user has to have. In the mass market, cable TV, mobile phones, videogame players, DVD players, iPods, TVs, PCs and phone lines are among the communications-related services and products that lie at the head of the usage curve. Almost everybody has them and uses them.

After these, usage begins to drop off pretty quickly. Fax machines and ATAs (or network interfaces) are lesser-used products that lie in the middle of the curve. PhoneGnome boxes, Jajah and mobile video today are things way out on the tail. If you randomly ask people on the street whether they use any of them, the expected answer would be "no."

In the mobile data services revenue bucket, service providers are eager to show rising average revenue per user in things other than short message service (text messaging). Those revenues are growing. From what we can tell, an awful lot of that revenue is coming from data cards and BlackBerry-driven data plans. So the growing, non-texting data revenues are for email and Web access, not content, music or other newer services.

What that tells us is that mobile email is emerging as a "head of the tail," popular service. Mobile broadband is shifting a bit closer to the middle of the curve. Some observers are hopeful that "watching TV on a mobile" will become a killer app. Perhaps. But we wouldn't be surprised if mobile email winds up being a bigger revenue driver. Or even mobile PC access, for that matter.

Our experience with 3G so far suggests the long tail operates in telecom as one would expect: Very few killer apps and lots and lots of things important to some people, some times. A few blockbusters, lots of niches, in other words.