The stay-at-home orders issued to combat the Covid-19 virus have boosted international voice traffic about 20 percent in March 2020, compared to 2019, says i3forum. Roaming traffic dropped by 30 percent, as travel shrunk. The average length of calls increased by more than 30 percent in March and over 60 percent in April 2020 compared to 2019 levels.
The issue is what happens after the pandemic has passed. It might take an unusual degree of confidence--or excessive linear thinking--to predict that such elevated levels of usage persist.
IDC predicts a quick return to normalcy, when looking at global customer spending on telecommunications and subscription TV services. Spending is forecast to dip 0.8 percent compared to 2019. IDC expects the decline to continue in 2021, but at a somewhat lower degree.
Business spending might be a different matter. A significant percentage of small businesses will never reopen, so that spending will cease. Some larger businesses might allow some employees to continue working remotely, which will shift spending locations and types, even if it does not lower overall spending. Much also will depend on the speed and magnitude of post-pandemic recovery.
Countries that fall into significant recession will see lower business spending on communications.
The mobile segment, the largest segment of the market, will post a slight decline in 2020 due to lower revenues from roaming charges, less mobile data overages due to the stay-at-home situation, and slower net additions, especially in the consumer segment, IDC predicts.
Fixed data services spending will increase by 2.9 percent in 2020. But spending on fixed voice services will continue to decline.
In 2020, telecom services spending will drop in all geographic regions.
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