The long-term implications of social distancing for the connectivity business are not clear, though arguably better guesses might be made about travel-related industries. The short-term consequences of policies to combat Covid arguably also are far clearer: a significant percentage of small businesses will cease to exist, depressing sales of products to that segment of the market.
The longer-term impact on connectivity provider revenues might hinge on the perceived advantages or disadvantages of remote work. If employers see no downside--or minimal downside--from remote work, such policies could lead to less connectivity spending at work sites.
That could be balanced by greater spending on remote work products and services of all types, with a shift of usage away from urban centers and towards suburban and exurban areas.
That redistribution of usage patterns could then also reorient the pace and location of network capacity upgrades, both fixed and mobile, consumer and business.
The issue is that the long-run productivity of work-from-home policies is yet to be determined, even if the hope is that productivity remains the same as when information workers are based “in the office.”
Nor can we yet measure the impact of extensive remote work on social capital, "the networks of relationships among people who live and work in a particular society, enabling that society to function effectively".
Social capital matters for firms and societies because it enables the effective functioning of social groups through interpersonal relationships, a shared sense of identity, a shared understanding, shared norms, shared values, trust, cooperation, and reciprocity.
The point is that we can burn through some social capital for short periods of time, likely without ill effect. Long term if another matter. Social capital has to be recreated, produced or replenished over time. To the extent that full-time remote work does so less well than regular face-to-face relationships, social capital stocks will fall, and so should organizational effectiveness.
So far, many employers say publicly that productivity has not suffered. Many surveys indicate remote workers believe their productivity has not suffered. But the longer enforced remote work goes on, and the more surveys are taken, it appears productivity in many cases is suffering.
It is not too early to note at least some differences between groups of workers. Younger workers are more likely to say they have had a hard time feeling motivated to do their work since the coronavirus outbreak started, according to a December 2020 survey by Pew Research. That suggests there is some productivity risk to full-time remote work by significant portions of nearly the entire information worker base.
Most adults who are teleworking all or most of the time say it has been at least somewhat easy for them to feel motivated to do their work since the pandemic started, Pew notes. But there is a distinct age gap.
About 42 percent of workers ages 18 to 49 say motivation has been difficult for them, compared with only 20 percent of workers 50 and older. The youngest workers are among the most likely to say a lack of motivation has been an impediment for them. About 53 percent of those ages 18 to 29 say it’s been difficult for them to feel motivated to do their work, Pew reports.
More than 60 percent of remote workers say it has been very easy or somewhat easy for them to feel motivated to do their work. Still, more than 30 percent say this has been difficult.
To be sure, motivation is not the same thing as productivity. And we might question whether we can accurately measure productivity of information workers.
Also, productivity arguably is different for workers without children. Half of parents with children younger than 18 who are working at home all or most of the time say it’s been difficult for them to be able to get their work done without interruptions since the coronavirus outbreak started. Only 20 percent of workers who don’t have children under 18 say the same.
We do not--at present--fully understand the implications of permanent remote work for connectivity provider business models, much less long-run productivity.
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