5G seems to be following a traditional consumer electronics rule of thumb, which is that adoption reaches an inflection point at about the point that 10 percent of households have bought.
According to researchers at Omdia, the important inflection point for 5G is is “the point where 5G starts being revenue positive.” Omdia says about 14 percent of 5G networks have reached that point of 10-percent subscriber penetration.
Of 150 mobile operators with at least some 5G coverage by June 30, 2021 only 21 had managed to get to a point where at least 10 percent of their subscribers had regular 5G access, according to Omdia.
The reason 10 percent seems to be the trigger, one might argue, is that it is the point where early adopters have become customers and users, setting the stage for behavior to extend to the majority of consumers.
One can see an example in cell phone adoption by U.S. households. About 1994, household adoption reached 10 percent or so, after a longer period of slow adoption. An analogous pattern happened with smartphone adoption as well.
The adoption pattern perhaps is easier to visualize with a longer time frame. Here is a chart showing cell phone adoption in the United Kingdom.
A wide range of physical products have shown the same pattern. Automobile adoption shows adoption accelerating once the 10-percent threshold was hit.
source: Our World in Data
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