Friday, October 8, 2021

Fermi is Necessary When Estimating Demand for a Product That Does Not Yet Exist

Every professional asked to estimate the size of a new market--especially for products that do not yet exist--has a Fermi problem. One has to estimate the size of something but with unknown or incomplete data.


It is not required when making forecasts about existing products with relatively well-established demand curves.


As a client once said, asking for an estmate of demand and a cost to create the network for a non-existing consumer product, “all I care about is that your projection is in the right order of magnitude. I don’t worry about precision less than that.”

source: Everyday Concepts

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