As easy as it might be to dismiss fixed wireless, it might be equally easy to overstate its impact. At the end of 2021 there might have been about 70 million fixed wireless connections in service globally, according to Deloitte. Ericsson believes there were as many as 90 million fixed wireless connections in service in 2021.
So how significant is that? Perhaps not so significant when service providers have other alternatives. But fixed wireless might be highly consequential for service providers that can use fixed wireless to compete in the home broadband market where they had not be able to do so, in the past.
By the end of 2021 there were about one billion fixed network internet access subscriptions, according to Point Topic. So fixed wireless represented possible seven percent to nine percent of fixed network internet access connections globally.
So fixed wireless clearly is incremental to use of other platforms, though arguably of high importance to many infrastructure suppliers.
On the other hand, fixed wireless can be incrementally important for some service providers. For some service providers it might represent a business case that other platforms cannot match, allowing those firms to compete in the home broadband for the first time, or more effectively.
That might especially be true in geographies where the cost of building cabled networks is not feasible, or where subsidies of some sort are not available to help defray the cost.
Mobile-only firms formerly unable to compete in the home broadband market, or unable to compete for much of that market, might find 5G fixed wireless viable.
5G fixed wireless connections could--in many cases--provide significant incremental revenue growth, allowing mobile operators to compete for home broadband accounts now largely the province of fixed network operators.
Assume global gross national income per capita of about $11,600 and a monthly home broadband cost of five percent of GNI per capita. That is about $580 in annual revenue per line.
So 75 million new fixed wireless accounts represents perhaps $43.5 billion in new annual revenue for mobile service providers. That can take the form of new accounts or market share taken from other suppliers.
Fixed wireless using 5G will by 2026 support 180 million connections globally and generate US$70 billion in revenue, accounting for 40 percent of the total fixed wireless access market, according to ABI Research.
Adoption likely will be highest in markets where the cost of deploying fiber to home or hybrid fiber coax remains unworkable, and where demand for moderate-speed internet access is high. Some might argue that 5G fixed wireless is most directly the successor for 4G fixed wireless and digital subscriber line. In some markets that opportunity might last for a substantial amount of time.
5G fixed wireless might be especially important for firms that have not yet been able to compete in all of most of the home broadband market. For T-Mobile in the U.S. market, that represents a huge opportunity, since T-Mobile has had zero percent share of the home broadband market.
And Verizon expects that fixed wireless will underpin as much as 71 percent of the potential locations it will reach for home broadband service by about 2025.
Some will counter that 5G fixed wireless speeds will not generally match those of fiber to home or cable modem services. That is likely to be true.
But 5G fixed wireless is likely to be attractive to a substantial portion of the market. In rural areas, where service might only be available in the 50 Mbps range, that still could be competitive.
Overall, about 20 percent of U.S. home broadband buyers purchase services operating no faster than 100 Mbps. So the issue is general availability of fixed wireless services offering speeds of 100 Mbps to 200 Mbps.
Nearly half the market presently buys service operating between 100 Mbps and 200 Mbps. And nearly 68 percent of the U.S. market buys service operating no faster than 200 Mbps.
Also, the U.S. home broadband market is big enough that gaining just a couple of points of the installed base and market share generates substantial revenue. By 2023, fixed wireless might represent about 4.5 percent of all home broadband accounts , some estimate.
To put that into perspective, consider projected revenue for other new services. In 2024, it is conceivable that IoT connectivity revenues for mobile operators globally could be in the low millions to tens of millions of dollars, according to Machina Research. Millions, not billions.
In 2026 the global multi-access edge computing market might generate $1.72 billion. Even if one assumes all that revenue is connectivity revenue booked by mobile operators, it still is a far smaller new revenue stream than fixed wireless represents.
In 2020 there were perhaps 80 million fixed wireless subscriptions in service. Researchers at Mobile Experts see that number growing to almost 200 million by 2026.
Ericsson notes that more than 70 percent of all service providers now offer fixed wireless access services. Ericsson also predicts that fixed wireless connections will exceed 180 million by the end of 2026.
By 2026, assuming these forecasts are accurate, fixed wireless will represent about 12 percent of fixed network broadband connections, Ericsson estimates.
Keep in mind that the incremental revenue from 75 million 5G fixed wireless connections does not include the revenue from 4G fixed wireless connections, which might represent another 110 million connections.
That represents an additional $104.3 billion in annual revenue, assuming a global average of $48 per month, per line.
The point is that incremental revenue from 5G fixed wireless might dwarf new revenues earned by mobile operators from edge computing and internet of things.
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