We might as well get used to the idea that artificial intelligence, machine learning, AR, VR, metaverse and Web3 are not going to produce the expected advantages as fast we invest in those technologies.
The reason is simply that organizations cannot change as fast as does technology. So there will be an outcomes lag between investment and perceived outcomes.
Martec's Law essentially argues that technology change happens faster than humans and organizations can change. That might explain why new technology sometimes takes decades to produce measurable change in organizational performance, or why a productivity gap exists.
Since there simply is no way organizations can change fast enough to keep up with technology, the practical task is simply to decide which specific technologies to embrace. In some instances, a major reset is possible, but typically only by a fairly-significant organizational change, such as spinning of parts of a business, selling or acquiring assets.
Some might argue that the Covid-19 epidemic caused an acceleration of technology adoption, though some also argue that demand was essentially “pulled forward” in time. In that sense, the pandemic was a “cataclysmic” event that caused a sudden burst of technology adoption.
The main point is that managerial discretion is involved. Since firms cannot deploy all the new technologies, choices have to be made about which to pursue. Even when the right choices are made, however, outcomes might take a while to surface. That likely is going to happen with AI investments, much as has happened in the past with other lags in measured productivity after major investment.
We might reasonably expect similar disappointment with other major trends including metaverse, AR, VR or Web3. Organizations cannot change as fast as the technology does.
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