Saturday, February 4, 2023

If You Have a Choice, Choose a High-Growth, High-Multiple Industry

I once had a management professor give one bit of advice to people just entering the workforce. When choosing an industry to work in, it is better to choose a fast-growing industry rather than a slow-growth or declining industry. 


If one has a choice, it is helpful to be in an industry forecast to show lots of growth, which also often correlates with other valuation ratios, such as enterprise value/revenue. 


Here is a ranking of industries made by Stern School at New York University researchers and updated in January 2023. Looking at EV/Sales ratios, one can see that valuation ratios can routinely vary by an order of magnitude. 


Financial services and real estate investment trusts routinely are valued at 10 to 20 times specialty retailers and as much as 63 times higher than grocers. Compared to fixed network communications services, financial services are an order of magnitude more highly valued. 


IndustryValuation Enterprise Value Compared to Sales Ratio

Industry Name

Number of firms

Price/Sales

Net Margin

EV/Sales

Pre-tax Operating Margin

Financial Services (Non-bank and Insurance)

223

2.18

26.32%

23.49

15.88%

R.E.I.T. 

223

6.35

23.77%

11.06

23.20%

Utility (Water)

16

6.43

25.12%

9.18

29.38%

Green & Renewable Energy

19

3.68

17.77%

7.79

24.48%

Software (System & Application)

390

7.14

14.61%

7.59

21.90%

Software (Internet)

33

5.57

-19.07%

6.33

-5.48%

Transportation (Railroads)

4

5.04

27.65%

6.32

39.86%

Information Services

73

5.77

16.62%

6.26

24.21%

Drugs (Biotechnology)

598

5.78

0.65%

6.18

11.87%

Healthcare Information and Technology

138

4.81

-0.33%

5.33

17.00%

Investments & Asset Management

600

4.15

24.93%

5.16

18.15%

Healthcare Products

254

4.73

7.00%

5.15

15.13%

Tobacco

15

4.19

23.46%

5.05

43.97%

Semiconductor

68

4.63

22.74%

4.98

25.44%

Drugs (Pharmaceutical)

281

4.38

18.35%

4.85

27.37%

Beverage (Soft)

31

4.16

14.60%

4.67

19.14%

Bank (Money Center)

7

2.55

26.96%

4.49

0.10%

Brokerage & Investment Banking

30

2.14

16.01%

4.46

0.31%

Banks (Regional)

557

3.2

30.31%

4.34

-0.10%

Utility (General)

15

2.47

12.68%

4.28

18.03%

Hotel/Gaming

69

2.75

1.10%

4.2

4.23%

Beverage (Alcoholic)

23

3.38

5.76%

4.07

20.17%

Restaurant/Dining

70

3.16

9.28%

4.07

12.80%

Real Estate (General/Diversified)

12

3.14

12.67%

4.02

18.60%

Power

48

2.14

9.17%

3.75

15.67%

Computers/Peripherals

42

3.41

16.68%

3.67

21.43%

Semiconductor Equip

30

3.43

22.27%

3.66

27.44%

Household Products

127

3.23

11.25%

3.65

17.12%

Software (Entertainment)

91

3.54

20.91%

3.59

25.65%

Telecom Equipment

79

3.31

13.29%

3.56

18.63%

Precious Metals

74

3.3

7.18%

3.55

10.10%

Shoe

13

3.06

11.17%

3.22

12.83%

Telecom (Wireless)

16

1.98

2.54%

3.18

12.37%

Entertainment

110

2.47

0.90%

3.06

7.44%

Environmental & Waste Services

62

2.44

7.29%

3.03

12.85%

Real Estate (Development)

18

1.42

15.04%

2.81

17.48%

Total Market

7165

1.95

8.89%

2.8

11.60%

Electrical Equipment

110

2.38

7.31%

2.77

10.25%

Machinery

116

2.28

8.51%

2.67

14.00%

Oil/Gas Distribution

23

1.54

2.08%

2.6

10.82%

Aerospace/Defense

77

2.1

4.05%

2.55

8.68%

Diversified

23

2.16

0.98%

2.5

3.59%

Chemical (Specialty)

76

2.05

8.07%

2.48

14.80%

Cable TV

10

1.19

7.91%

2.43

19.52%

Total Market (without financials)

5649

1.93

7.77%

2.35

12.03%

Telecom. Services

49

1.01

12.81%

2.18

19.95%

Insurance (General)

21

1.7

15.21%

2.16

21.86%

Construction Supplies

49

1.72

8.23%

2.15

11.16%

Oil/Gas (Production and Exploration)

174

1.83

26.01%

2.12

35.68%

Food Processing

92

1.66

7.10%

2.1

11.94%

Metals & Mining

68

1.86

9.66%

2.06

22.84%

Business & Consumer Services

164

1.69

4.92%

2.05

9.22%

Advertising

58

1.49

3.79%

1.96

11.11%

Retail (Building Supply)

15

1.64

8.67%

1.96

13.81%

Electronics (General)

138

1.73

6.32%

1.94

9.83%

Retail (Online)

63

1.63

0.64%

1.87

1.84%

Education

33

1.57

2.92%

1.85

5.16%

Auto and Truck

31

1.32

5.02%

1.81

6.49%

Recreation

57

1.22

1.30%

1.77

8.31%

Hospitals/Healthcare Facilities

34

0.85

5.31%

1.57

11.62%

Retail (Distributors)

69

1.06

7.30%

1.45

11.90%

Trucking

35

1.07

1.29%

1.45

9.18%

Coal & Related Energy

19

1.35

20.44%

1.43

22.17%

Insurance (Prop/Cas.)

51

1.21

4.05%

1.39

6.49%

Oil/Gas (Integrated)

4

1.31

15.17%

1.39

17.46%

Building Materials

45

1.1

10.30%

1.36

13.94%

Broadcasting

26

0.6

11.90%

1.33

14.75%

Insurance (Life)

27

0.83

6.07%

1.33

8.39%

Packaging & Container

25

0.79

6.06%

1.25

9.63%

Farming/Agriculture

39

0.94

5.66%

1.22

7.78%

Computer Services

80

0.93

2.53%

1.17

6.89%

Apparel

39

0.81

5.07%

1.16

11.11%

Publishing & Newspapers

20

0.88

2.82%

1.16

7.75%

Engineering/Construction

43

0.87

2.16%

1.08

4.69%

Transportation

18

0.89

6.99%

1.08

9.38%

Shipbuilding & Marine

8

0.82

21.55%

1.07

26.33%

Air Transport

21

0.42

-1.71%

1.02

2.08%

Real Estate (Operations and Services)

60

0.52

-0.76%

1

0.50%

Retail (Special Lines)

78

0.72

3.86%

0.97

5.74%

Office Equipment & Services

16

0.6

2.36%

0.93

6.26%

Chemical (Diversified)

4

0.64

13.16%

0.91

13.56%

Retail (Automotive)

30

0.59

4.07%

0.91

5.73%

Chemical (Basic)

38

0.63

9.70%

0.89

13.14%

Furn/Home Furnishings

32

0.6

2.03%

0.88

7.89%

Homebuilding

32

0.71

13.98%

0.85

18.79%

Auto Parts

37

0.62

2.16%

0.82

5.19%

Retail (General)

15

0.7

2.35%

0.81

4.12%

Electronics (Consumer and Office)

16

0.78

0.54%

0.78

2.11%

Paper/Forest Products

7

0.58

10.23%

0.77

18.59%

Healthcare Support Services

131

0.61

2.01%

0.69

4.00%

Steel

28

0.58

14.70%

0.68

19.89%

Reinsurance

1

0.58

3.54%

0.63

4.64%

Oilfield Svcs/Equip.

101

0.47

5.25%

0.58

7.37%

Rubber and  Tires

3

0.14

4.21%

0.55

5.84%

Food Wholesalers

14

0.29

1.09%

0.41

2.10%

Retail (Grocery and Food)

13

0.24

1.96%

0.37

2.92%

source: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/datasets/psdata.xls


The point is that, when one has a choice, choose to enter an industry with higher growth rates or higher valuation ratios or both. 


The same sort of relationship also holds for managerial success, once those choices have been made. It is easier to be a “hero” when one has worked in a fast-growing, more-profitable industry to begin with. The same amount of effort and talent is likely to produce consistently higher outcomes compared to the same effort and talent expended in a slow-growth, lower-valuation industry.


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