Tuesday, April 25, 2023

Connectivity Provider Margin Compression Since 1980

Margin compression is a problem of long standing in the connectivity industry. Generally speaking, profit margins have declined over time, partly because of new competition, partly because of better technology, partly because of government rules promoting lower prices. 


Generally speaking, profit margins were highest in the monopoly era, when telecom companies operated as sanctioned monopolies. As newer markets have operated in a competitive manner, profit margins have been lower, even if mass market adoption has been helped by those lower prices. 


Product

Years

Profit Margin (%)

Fixed-line Voice

1860-1980

50-70

Mobile Voice

1980-2000

30-50

Internet Access

2000-2010

20-30

Content Services

2010-present

10-20


Calling rate trends clearly show the impact of competition and better technology (including voice over IP calling and messaging substitutes; substitution of email and texting and messaging for voice communications). 


Voice Calling Price Changes (Per Minute) Since 1980

Date

Product

Rate (in USD)

1980

Local

0.25/min

1985

Local

0.20/min

1990

Local

0.15/min

1995

Local

0.10/min

2000

Local

0.05/min

2005

Local

0.02/min

2010

Local

0.01/min

2015

Local

0.005/min

2020

Local

0.002/min

1980

International

$1.00/min

1985

International

0.80/min

1990

International

0.60/min

1995

International

0.40/min

2000

International

0.20/min

2005

International

0.10/min

2010

International

0.05/min

2015

International

0.02/min

2020

International

0.01/min

1980

VoIP

N/A

1985

VoIP

N/A

1990

VoIP

N/A

1995

VoIP

N/A

2000

VoIP

$0.05/min

2005

VoIP

$0.02/min

2010

VoIP

$0.01/min

2015

VoIP

$0.005/min

2020

VoIP

$0.002/min


One can see the same trend for home broadband or wide area network data transport prices. 

To the extent that WAN transport revenue has not plummeted directly, it is because volumes of data to be moved have increased so much. 


But there have been other effects, such as the displacement of most traditional telcos as meaningful providers of WAN data transport, compared to private networks operated by hyperscalers and other long-haul data transport specialists.


Year

Data Transported (in petabytes)

Cost per megabyte (in USD)

1980

0.01

$100,000

1985

0.1

$10,000

1990

1

$1,000

1995

10

$100

2000

100

$10

2005

1,000

$1

2010

10,000

$0.1

2015

100,000

$0.01

2020

1,000,000

$0.001

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