AI Leaders and Laggards?

There are lots of head fakes in technology. At least temporarily, virtual reality, augmented reality, automated vehicles, three-dimensional television, smart glasses, virtual assistants and wearable technology have failed to make much of an impact. 

User-generated content has succeeded as the underpinning of sustainable business models, but not as it was originally envisioned, as a substitute for professionally-produced content. 

On the other hand, Netscape made the multimedia World Wide Web accessible, while the Web made the internet a “must have” experience.  Facebook created social media. Google search changed the way people learn and find things. The iPhone changed personal devices. Twitter changed the way newsmakers get their news. Netflix and YouTube changed the way people consume video content. 

ChatGPT and generative AI seemingly have nearly-instantly shifted and changed the computing function and the application of computing to apps, devices and platforms. 

But it is worth pointing out that we are early in a shift to an AI-driven future. A few of you might recall the early days of personal computing or the internet and what it was capable of in 1995. The point is that we are quite likely to be surprised with the outcomes.

Today’s apparent “leaders” might not be in existence in a decade, much less continue to lead. Laggards and upstarts might overtake today’s leaders in markets as they exist in a decade or two. 

How AI will reshape apps, platforms, devices and experiences is fluid and unsettled. So most of our predictions will prove false, in part, or in whole. 

In 1995, the idea of “ad-supported technology firms” might have seemed silly. But now we have witnessed the dominance of firms such as Google and Meta, which are nothing if not ad-supported developers of technology products. 

The emergence of online commerce was easier to predict. But few in 1995 believed video streaming services could not only compete with, but supplant, linear video. 

So “nobody saw this coming” is still likely to be among the outcomes of AI, a decade or two in the future, especially if AI turns out to be a general-purpose technology like electricity. 

General-purpose technologies are fundamental innovations which have a broad range of applications and can be used to improve productivity in a variety of industries. They are often characterized by their ability to be adapted to new uses and to generate new industries, increase productivity and ignite economic growth. 

The stream engine, internal combustion engine, materials science, electricity, the computer and the internet are prior examples of GPTs. Biotechnology and nanotechnology are other possible GPTs, but are not yet widely acknowledged to have already done so. 

Most of us likely believe AI is going to be added to that list. Buckle up.