Friday, December 1, 2023

"Sampling" is Driving Much ChatGPT Usage

Most people are likely impressed by rapid ChatGPT usage statistics. But very-early “usage” of a new type of app is likely driven by curiosity, media hype, or social media trends rather than genuine engagement and continued use that creates a firmer daily active user metric. Consider one metric: total users. 


Most observers agree that ChatGPT reached 100 million users in two months. Other popular apps took longer to reach that level of “usage.” But it is hard, in the very-early days, to determine what that statistic means, as it includes lots of users who are sampling, but decide the app is not immediately useful, and do not become repeat users. 


App

Time to Reach 100 Million Users

ChatGPT

2 months

WhatsApp

3.5 years

Facebook

2.5 years

TikTok

9 months

Instagram

2.5 years

Twitter

5 years

Netflix

3.5 years


So many would focus on “daily active users,” which tends to better measure repeat user behavior, and should provide a better idea of app adoption. ChatGPT also appears to have been adopted faster than many other now-popular apps. 


App

Time to Reach 1 Million DAU

ChatGPT

5 days

TikTok

9 months

WhatsApp

18 months

Facebook

4 months

Google

8 months

Netflix

13 months


The point is that optimism about LLM and generative AI is reasonable: DAU stats suggest the potential. 


According to a survey by OpenAI, perhaps two percent of internet users have used a large language model at least once, which would suggest 160 million people worldwide have used ChatGPT at least once for creative writing, learning, and entertainment, which are the three most-frequent uses. 


Another survey, conducted by Pew Research Center, suggests that 13 percent of Americans have heard of large language models, and three percent have used one. Another study by Pew suggests 20 percent of teenagers who have heard of ChatGPT have used it for homework., 


A separate study by Pew Research suggests the percentage of respondents who have heard of ChatGPT and have tried it has grown substantially by August 2023. Repeat studies suggest sampling or usage has grown rapidly in 2023. 

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